买家重返中国楼市?

On the sandy plains east of Beijing, The World is in trouble. The property development was supposed to bring five continents, in the form of artificial islands, to scrubby farmland near the booming city of Tianjin.
在北京以东的沙质平原上，“星耀五洲”(The World)项目陷于困境。这个房地产开发项目原本要以人工岛的形式，把五大洲搬到繁荣发展的天津附近的贫瘠农地。
Instead, the enormous project, which is about three times the size of New York's Central Park, exemplifies both the excesses and more recent sharp downturn in China's property market.
可到头来，这个占地面积大约是纽约中央公园(Central Park) 3倍的巨大项目，既体现出中国房产市场的过度建设，也突显出该市场近期的急转直下。
Asia and North America's villas and tower blocks are mostly finished, but only about 20 homes out of thousands of units are occupied. And with the developer running out of funds, construction has virtually ground to a halt, leaving Europe, Africa and South America in varying states of underdevelopment.
“亚洲”和“北美洲”大陆上的别墅和高楼已基本完工，但在成千上万套住宅中，只有大约20套有人居住。同时，由于开发商资金拮据，建筑工作已几乎停止，使得“欧洲”、“非洲”和“南美洲”处在不同程度的欠开发阶段。
The World was designed to house 100,000 people, an indoor ski dome, a replica of San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge and a seven-star hotel. Its troubles echo those of another project that goes by the same name — the archipelago of island homes started in Dubai before the global financial crisis.
“星耀五洲”的设计意图是容纳10万居民，提供一个室内滑雪场、一座旧金山金门大桥(Golden Gate Bridge)的复制品，以及一家七星级酒店。该项目的困境与迪拜在全球金融危机爆发前开工的“世界岛”项目遭遇的麻烦如出一辙。
"It's definitely not an ideal time to be in the property business," said a receptionist in the showroom.
“现在肯定不是做房地产生意的理想时机，”展示中心的一名接待人员表示。
The property market is the single most important engine of economic growth in China, making its fate a global concern. Housing prices spiralled in the wake of the global financial crisis when the government launched a huge fiscal stimulus programme to boost the economy.
房地产市场是推动中国经济增长的最重要发动机，这使得该市场的兴衰成为一项全球关切。全球金融危机过后，中国房价一度扶摇直上，当时政府出台了一套巨额财政刺激计划，意在提振经济。
Beijing shifted gears in 2010, turning the screw on speculators to rein in house prices and reckless investment, which officials feared could put the economy at risk. Prices have finally started to fall, and the government wants to see them fall further. However, developers warn that what has been a mild correction could turn into a rout if Beijing does not let up.
北京方面在2010年调整政策，对投机者施加压力，以求抑制房价和盲目投资。官员们担心，楼市过热可能给整体经济带来风险。如今房价终于开始下跌，而政府希望看到房价进一步回落。不过，开发商们警告称，如果北京方面不放松调控力度，迄今的小幅回落可能演变成一场崩盘。
Despite this gloomy prognosis, The World is showing signs of life. After a quiet stretch, buyers have confounded expectations and started to return. One day last month, a few people were in the showroom, surveying a model of the development and talking to agents.
尽管存在这种悲观的展望，但“星耀五洲”正展现出一些生机。与各方的预期相反，经过一段生意清淡的时间后，买家们又开始上门了。上月的某一天，展示中心里有几个人在看项目模型，并与售楼代理交谈。
A middle-aged woman clutching a Louis Vuitton bag said she and her husband already owned "seven or eight homes" on the southern island of Hainan and were trying to diversify geographically.
拿着一个路易威登(LV)手袋的一名中年女士说，她和丈夫在海南岛已经拥有“七八套住房”，目前正试图从地理上分散投资。
"We heard about this project and wanted to come to see it," said Ms Sun, who declined to give her first name. "We're mainly worried about buying at the right time, before the government loosens policy and prices start rising again."
“我们听说了这个项目，就想过来看一看，”不愿提供全名的孙女士表示。“我们主要关心的是在正确的时机出手购买，赶在政府放松政策、房价再度开始上涨之前。”
The World was not the only complex to benefit — the housing market perked up across China in February. According to local property websites, deals increased 17 per cent month-on-month in Beijing, 24 per cent in the wealthy eastern city of Hangzhou and also climbed at the end of the month in the metropolises of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
“星耀五洲”并不是仅有的一个出现转机的开发项目。2月份中国各地的房地产市场均出现起色。根据中国一些房地产网站的数据，北京的房地产成交量环比增长17%，富裕的华东城市杭州增长24%。接近上月底之际，上海、深圳和广州等大城市的房地产成交量也有所增长。

The rise was partly seasonal, as there were few buyers in January when China came to a standstill for the lunar new year festival.
这种增长在一定程度上是季节性的，因为1月份适逢春节假期，买家偏少。
Yet many like Ms Sun were also betting on something more fundamental: that Beijing would back down in its longstanding tightening campaign, allowing the housing market to soar once more. That expectation fuelled a 20 per cent jump in the shares of the country's biggest developers such as Vanke and Evergrande last month.
但是，许多像孙女士这样的人，也在押注于一些更为根本的动向，即北京方面将放松实行已久的宏观调控，允许楼市再度飙升。这种期望推动万科(Vanke)和恒大(Evergrande)等中国大型开发商的股价上月大涨20%。
But central government has shown no sign of taking its foot off the brake. At every turn, Wen Jiabao, the premier, has reiterated that he still wants to reduce prices to more affordable levels. A few cities, desperate for revenue from land sales, have tried to loosen policy, only to be slapped back into line by Beijing.
但是，中央政府并未显露出放松调控力度的任何迹象。温家宝总理利用每一个机会重申，他仍希望房价回落至更容易承受的水平。几个急于从土地销售获得财政收入的城市，已试图放松政策，结果都被中央政府制止。
Ni Zhengzhen, a contractor at The World with a crew of electricians and plumbers, predicted that the government would soon lose its nerve.
倪峥臻（音译）是“星耀五洲”工地上的一个承包商，手下有一批电工和水管工。他预计，政府很快就将被迫放松政策。
"Our country needs housing construction. It's what drives the economy. They've got to let money back into the sector. We're all suffering and short of cash," he said.
“我们国家需要住房建设。这是经济的推动力。他们必须让资金重返房地产行业。现在大家都在受苦，短缺现金，”他表示。
Pointing to a grey-haired worker in a greatcoat held together by clothes pins, he added: "If there's no money, he won't get paid and will lose his job. The government doesn't want that."
他指着一名头发灰白、身穿一件用晒衣夹夹住的大衣的工人说：“要是没钱，他就拿不到工资，就会失去工作。政府不希望发生这种事。”
While Beijing is worried about high property prices, it is also concerned about the potential for unrest, particularly as the Communist party prepares to change its leadership.
尽管北京方面担心房价偏高，但它也担忧不安定的潜在可能，尤其是在共产党准备进行领导层换届之际。
Mr Ni has already cut his crew from a peak of 200 to about 20. And he has also accepted property as payment — he owns two villas and two apartments in North America.
倪峥臻已将自己手下的队伍从顶峰时的200人精简至大约20人。他还接受了一些房产作为付款，目前他拥有“北美洲”的两座别墅和两套公寓。
Investment in housing directly accounts for about 10 per cent of China's economy. Through its indirect impact on companies from steel mills to fridge makers, it is even more important.
住宅投资在中国经济中占大约10%的直接比重。若计入该行业给从钢厂到冰箱厂带来的间接影响，其重要性更高。
But the highway from The World to downtown Tianjin, a 40km stretch of new towers and construction sites, is a reminder of why the government has been so determined to cool the property market.
但是，从“星耀五洲”到天津市中心的40公里高速公路沿途到处都是新建高楼和建筑工地，这提醒人们中国政府为什么如此坚决地要让楼市降温。
"The situation of housing prices continually increasing and local governments selling more and more of their land to finance their investments?.?.?.?is crazy. This is destroying our economy. No economy can grow like that," said Li Daokui, a Tsinghua University professor and an adviser to the central bank.
“房价不断上涨、地方政府出售越来越多土地以资助自身投资的局面……是疯狂的。这种局面正在摧毁我们的经济。没有一个经济体能够这样增长，”清华大学(Tsinghua University)教授、中国央行顾问李稻葵表示。
"If it continues, the fundamental health of the country's economy will be in jeopardy."
“如果这种局面持续下去，中国经济的根本健康将陷入危险。”
译者:和风