保定初定政治副中心 治理雾霾影响中国汽车制造商

China is declaring war on pollution. And it's extending the battlefield to the world's biggest car market.

中国打响了治污之战，而且战场延伸到了国内汽车市场。

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has declared that sMog is as big a problem as poverty. One solution: new proposed fuel-economy standards for passenger cars. These rules would require car makers to reduce fuel consumption by 6.2% on average every year between 2016 and 2020, the most ambitious rate for that period among major markets, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation, an environmental research group.

中国国务院总理李克强宣布，雾霾是与贫困同样严重的问题。一个解决方案是：针对乘用车制定新的燃油效率标准。环境研究组织国际清洁交通委员会(International Council on Clean Transportation)的信息显示，中国的车辆能效新规将要求汽车厂商在2016至2020年期间使油耗平均每年降低6.2%，这是同期主要市场中力度最大的节能要求。

Some auto makers will be hit harder than others. Take Tata Motors-owned JaguarLand Rover, which has profited from selling SUVs, the fastest-selling passenger segment in China. The previous round of targets for 2015 gave heavier cars extra leeway. Under the new proposal, they have to play catch-up. A hypothetical car maker that sells 2.5-ton SUVs has to cut the amount of gas needed to travel 100 km by up to 40% between 2016 and 2020, compared with 31% for a maker that produces only one-ton sedans.

一些汽车厂商将比同行受到更大的打击。以塔塔汽车(Tata Motors)旗下的捷豹路虎(JaguarLand Rover)为例，这个品牌通过销售运动型多用途车(SUV)获利，这是中国最畅销的乘用车型。此前给出的2015年标准给了较重车型额外的转圜余地，而在新标准下这些车型不得不迎头赶上。假设一家汽车厂商只生产2.5吨重SUV，则2016至2020年间该公司需要将百公里油耗降低多达40%；相比之下，只生产1吨重轿车的汽车厂商仅需将百公里油耗降低31%。

Foreign luxury car makers such as BMW and Audi face a new challenge. Currently they calculate a combined fuel-economy average for the big models they import and the small ones made locally. Now imports have to be compliant on their own, says Sanford C. Bernstein's Max Warburton. Another rule takes away allowances for gas-guzzling automatic-transmission cars, hurting foreign brands' automatic-heavy fleets.

宝马(BMW)、奥迪(Audi)等海外豪华汽车制造商正面临一个新的挑战。目前他们在计算汽车能耗时都是计算进口大型车与本地产小型车的平均能耗。Sanford C. Bernstein的沃伯顿(Max Warburton)说，现在进口车的能耗须单独达标。另一项规定取消了对高耗油的自动挡汽车的补贴，对海外品牌的自动挡重型车构成打击。

There's a good chance most of the 2020 recommendations will be implemented, just as most of the 2015 proposals were. An exact time line for the final rules isn't clear. The car makers with the farthest to go to lift fleet average to the proposed new target are Toyota, JLR and Daimler's local venture, according to Mr. Warburton. Still, foreign makers are well positioned to inject new technology, since they're making similar improvements in other markets like the U.S. That leaves locals such as Great Wall and Geely with the most work to do.

2020年汽车能效标准建议的大多内容可能付诸实施，就像2015年建议的大多内容都被采纳一样。但还不清楚出台最终规定的确切时间。沃伯顿表示，丰田(Toyota)、捷豹路虎和戴姆勒(Daimler)在华合资公司旗下全系车型平均能耗与拟议的新标准相差最大。不过，由于海外汽车制造商正在美国等其他市场进行类似改进，他们对引入新技术准备比较充分。这样一来，本土车企如长城汽车(Great Wall)、吉利汽车(Geely)反而有最多工作要做。

There are winners, too. Brilliance China Automotive's joint venture with BMW and Ford's local venture sport relatively efficient fleets. Then there are the companies that help car makers save fuel. Hong Kong-listed auto-parts supplier Nexteer makes electrical power-steering systems that are more efficient than the hydraulic kind. BorgWarner makes powertrains, including the engine, more efficient. And the use of aluminum to reduce vehicle weight should give that metal a boost.

新规下也有赢家。华晨中国(Brilliance China Automotive)与宝马和福特的合资公司就以能效相对较高的车型作为卖点。帮助汽车制造商提高燃油效率的公司也将获益。汽车零部件供应商耐世特汽车(Nexteer)生产的电动转向系统比传统液压动力转向系统更为高效。博格华纳(BorgWarner)生产更为高效的动力总成系统（包括发动机）。此外，使用铝减轻车身重量的做法应会给铝金属构成提振。

The new fuel standards are ambitious, and could become even stricter should pollution worsen. Car makers that can easily adapt stand to prosper the most from China's cleaner future.

新燃油标准力度不小，并且如果污染情况恶化，规定还可能变得更加严格。最容易满足新规要求的汽车制造商将在中国更清洁的未来中取得最大成功。