盖茨 2035年世界上将没有贫穷的国家

As snowy Davos becomes engulfed in the hustle and bustle of another World Economic Forum, Microsoft (MSFT) founder Bill Gates took the opportunity to deliver an upbeat message in his annual newsletter. The 25-page report, written by Gates and his wife Melinda, who are co-chairs of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, argued that the world is a better place than it has ever been before. Gates predicted that by 2035, there would be almost no poor countries left in the world, using today's World Bank classification of low-income countries — even after adjusting for inflation.

微软创始人、世界首富比尔·盖茨近日在接受采访时表示，到2035年世界上将几乎没有贫穷的国家，那些贫穷的国家将会从富裕的邻国伙伴们的创新受益。 “到那个时候几乎所有的国家将会成为中低收入国家或者更为富有的国家。贫穷的国家会从周围最具生产力的邻国身上学习经验，并且受益于他们的创新，比如新的疫苗、优质的种子以及数字变革。而他们本身的廉价的劳动力、鼓励政策以及逐步普及的教育都会吸引更多的投资者。到2035年绝大多数的国家都会比现在中国的人均收入要高。”

"Poor countries are not doomed to stay poor. Some of the so-called developing nations have already developed," he said in his annual note, published on Tuesday. "I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world." Gates — who remains a part-time chairman of Microsoft — added that by this point in time, almost all countries will be "lower-middle income" or richer. Countries will learn from their most productive neighbors and benefit from innovations like new vaccines, better seeds, and the digital revolution, he said. "By almost any measure, the world is better than it has ever been. People are living longer, healthier lives. Extreme poverty rates have been cut in half in the past 25 years. Child mortality is plunging. Many nations that were aid recipients are now self-sufficient," he said.

“到时候将会有超过70%的国家的人均收入超过现在的中国人民的人均收入，而接近90%的国家的人均收入会赶上并超过现在的印度人民的人均收入。”盖茨说富裕国家和贫穷国家之间的差距将会慢慢地由中国、印度、巴西等一些国家填补。从1960开始，中国的人均收入翻了8倍，印度的升了4倍，巴西也几乎上涨了5倍。比尔·盖茨还称当前存在三大误区阻碍了全球发展：穷国将永远穷下去；外国援助是极大的浪费；拯救生命会导致人口过剩。

The three biggest myths, according to Gates, are that poor countries are doomed to stay poor, that foreign aid is a big waste and that saving lives leads to g data from academics, the World Bank and the United Nations, he makes the opposite case — arguing that the world is getting better.

“那些认为世界正变得越来越糟糕，我们不能解决贫穷以及疾病问题都是误解，并且有很大的危害，”盖茨写道。"不管通过什么标准衡量，世界都在不断地变好。很明显在接下来的二十年里也会变得更好。"