年原油市场将供应充足

Burgeoning crude supply is liable to drive prices lower in 2014 after a run of years when emerging markets supported demand, as shifting dynamics continue to change the oil landscape.

在原油市场连续数年获得新兴市场需求的支撑之后，快速增加的原油供应很可能会在2014年拉低油价，油市形势将继续随着这种供需动态变化而发生改变。

A historically jittery commodity, crude oil has seen calm prices for three years, and one big factor has been helping smooth the wrinkles: U.S. shale oil.

作为历史上一种非常敏感的大宗商品，原油价格走势已连续三年保持波澜不惊，其背后的一大支持因素就是美国的页岩油。

Three leading energy agencies recently said production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would increase this year, much of it from U.S. shale. Added to that is the possible return to market of millions of Middle East barrels as Iran, Iraq and Libya potentially ramp up production. All of that is set to press on prices.

三大能源机构近期表示，今年石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)以外国家的原油产量将增加，其中大部分来自美国的页岩油。除此之外，由于伊朗、伊拉克和利比亚可能会增产，中东地区的原油产量也许会增加数百万桶。所有这些势必会令油价承压。

A major disruption still could push oil higher, but potential oversupply makes even that less likely. Emerging-market demand once kept supply so tight that any disruptions led to striking price moves, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

若原油供应严重中断，仍可能会推高油价，但潜在的供应过剩会降低这种可能性。Saxo Bank的大宗商品策略部门主管汉森(Ole Hansen)说，新兴市场的需求曾使得供应如此紧张，因而任何一次供应中断都造成了油价的大幅波动。

That is changing. One big 2013 move for benchmark Brent crude came in August, when international intervention in Syria seemed increasingly likely. But while the price of Brent, which is traded on London's IntercontinentalExchange, did rise by 5% on the threat of U.S.-led airstrikes, it didn't come close to the 2013 high.

不过，这种局面正发生变化。2013年基准布伦特原油价格的一次大波动发生在8月份，当时国际社会干预叙利亚的可能性似乎越来越大。虽然在美国牵头进行空袭的威胁下，在伦敦洲际交易所(IntercontinentalExchange)交易的布伦特原油价格上涨了5%，但并没有逼近2013年高点。

'Increased production in the U.S. meant that spot prices weren't reacting quite as much as in previous geopolitical incidents,' Mr. Hansen said. There is so much supply that threats to it have less impact than previously, and 2014 will be 'the first year in a while when supply growth is going to outpace demand growth,' Mr. Hansen said.

汉森表示，美国原油增产意味着现货油价对地缘政治事件的反应不如以往那样大了。他说，目前的原油供应足够多，油价受威胁的程度不如以往，2014年将是首个出现一段时间原油供应增量超过需求增量的年头。

Next year, crude from Libya--which experienced major problems exporting its oil in 2013 because of internal disputes--could flow again. Iraqi output also is set to increase. Even Iran, shut out of global markets for years, could return if an agreement is reached to relax sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear development. All this could add as much as two million to three million barrels a day of Middle East output.

新的一年，产自利比亚的原油可能再度流入市场。受国内冲突影响，2013年利比亚的原油出口遭遇重大问题。此外，伊拉克原油产量也将增加。就连已多年被全球市场拒之门外的伊朗也有望重返市场，前提是该国与西方国家达成协议，放松对旨在限制该国发展核武器的制裁。所有这些可能会使中东地区原油日产量增加200万至300万桶。

'If that happens, that will need to be offset by some reduction of production out of Saudi [Arabia],' said Neil Gregson, a fund manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management who oversees $3.5 billion in natural-resources investments.

摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)基金经理格雷格森(Neil Gregson)表示，若事实如此，将需要沙特阿拉伯削减一定的原油产量来抵消其他中东地区国家增产的影响。该公司管理着35亿美元自然资源投资资金。

'In the meantime, the U.S. continues to grow its own domestic production both in oil and gas. I think, for us, it's less about where the actual price is going--it's more about how much more growth is left in North American oil sands, shale gas, shale oil,' as well as shale exploration elsewhere, he said.

格雷格森还说，“与此同时，美国国内的油气产量将继续增长。我认为，对我们来说，问题不在于实际油价走势如何，关键是北美油砂、页岩气、页岩油产量以及其他地区页岩油气勘探水平的增幅能有多大程度的提高。”

The price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude, which is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, has been kept lower by problems transporting the oil to markets. Those troubles have eased recently, but Sabine Schels, head of fundamental commodity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, doubts the problems will disappear.

受原油输送问题影响，纽约商品交易所交易的美国基准西得克萨斯中质油价格已持续走低。虽然这些问题近来有所缓解，但美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)基本大宗商品研究部门主管舍尔斯(Sabine Schels)怀疑这些问题不会消失。

'In the next 12 to 24 months, unless any of these bottlenecks are solved, we could see WTI going down to $50 a barrel, to incentivize producers to slow down,' she said

她说，“在未来12到24个月，除非这些瓶颈得到解决，否则西得克萨斯中质油价格会跌至每桶50美元，这将促使产油国减产。”

Still, there are bulls in the market.

不过，仍有人看涨油市。

John Hummel, chief investment officer for AIS Group, a fund manager with $400 million under management, said all the new sources of global oil are expensive to extract, and he sees U.S. shale output falling by 2015.

管理着4亿美元资产的基金公司AIS Group的首席投资长赫梅尔(John Hummel)称，全球所有新原油资源的开采成本都较高。他预计到2015年美国页岩油产量将下降。

'If global demand picks up in the developed world, and you combine that with the growth in the emerging economies, I think the market is going to get tight,' he said, which means those mighty peaks could return to the oil-price graph.

赫梅尔说，“如果发达经济体的原油需求增加，再加上新兴经济体需求的增多，我认为市场供应将趋紧。”这意味着油价走势图上可能会再度出现多个高峰。

'It's going to get volatile to the upside,' he said.

他说，“油价将波动上行。”

The soaring prices of 2008, when oil reached more than $140 a barrel, will repeat, though not likely in 2014, Mr. Hummel said. The price 'is going to go higher.'

赫梅尔还指出，2008年油价飙升的局面（当时油价升破每桶140美元）将重现，但不太可能发生在2014年。他说，“油价将会上涨。”