陆克文:中国新一代领导人将极具改革思想

China's incoming leadership will be strongly reform minded on the economy and usher in a new era of diplomacy in the region, Australia's former prime minister and longtime China watcher Kevin Rudd said Thursday.

澳大利亚前总理、长期关注中国的陆克文(Kevin Rudd)周四说，中国新一代领导人将极具经济改革思想，并将在亚太地区开启新的外交时代。

As territorial disputes between China and Japan escalate, Chinese leaders also face numerous challenges, including the flight of capital among the nation's wealthy and a slowing economy, Mr. Rudd told The Wall Street Journal. However, he expressed confidence in the ability of Xi Jinping, the presumed next leader, and his team to manage domestic challenges and foreign relations, calling him 'the sort of leader that the Americans can do business with.'

相关报道陆克文对《华尔街日报》说，随着中日领土争端升级，中国领导人也面临着诸多挑战，包括中国富人中出现的资本外逃和不断放缓的经济。不过，他表示对习近平及其团队管理国内挑战和外交关系的能力有信心，称习近平是美国人可以与之打交道的那种领导人。外界预计习近平将成为中国下一任最高领导人。

The U.S. has sought to expand its influence in Asia to counterbalance China's growing regional clout, announcing plans to increase its naval presence in the Pacific and sending top officials to canvass the region. Such moves have complicated relations between the two powerhouses, but Mr. Rudd-who said that when he was Australia's prime minister, he spent much time with Mr. Xi-said he anticipates Mr. Xi's rise will help alleviate such tensions.

美国一直寻求扩大在亚洲的影响，以便制衡中国不断增强的地区影响力，美国宣布了扩大在太平洋地区海军部署的计划，并派出高层官员在该地区进行游说。这类举措令中美两个大国之间的关系变得更加复杂，但陆克文说，他预测习近平升任最高领导人将有助于缓解这类紧张关系。陆克文说，在他担任澳大利亚总理期间，他与习近平的接触很多。

'I believe that Xi Jinping will want to work…with the Americans on a common road map for the region's future,' Mr. Rudd said in the interview, which came at the end of a two-week trip to China and Hong Kong. Mr. Xi's ascension will allow the U.S. and China to 'carve out a different period of strategic cooperation.'

周四，澳大利亚前总理陆克文在香港讲话。陆克文在接受采访时说，我认为习近平将希望与美国人携手为亚太地区的未来制定一张共同的路线图。陆克文是在为期两周的中国内地和香港访问之行即将结束时接受的采访。他说，习近平升任最高领导人将使美国和中国能够开启一个不同的战略合作时期。

Mr. Rudd said he expects further privatization of Chinese state-owned firms after the new leadership takes over, in part to address private-sector companies' concerns about their business prospects, which has led to some capital outflows. He also expects further currency liberalization and said that change is necessary, because the current growth model can't sustain full employment in China.

陆克文说，他预计在新一代领导人接班后，中国国有企业将进一步私有化，这在一定程度上是为了消除私营部门企业对其业务前景的担忧（这种担忧导致部分资本外流）。他还预计人民币汇率会进一步市场化，并说改变是必要的，因为目前的经济增长模式无法在中国维持充分就业。

His comments on the leadership transition in Australia's biggest trading partner come as speculation intensifies at home about Mr. Rudd's own political ambitions. The 55-year-old former diplomat is fluent in Mandarin and has strong ties to the region, including a stint as a diplomat in Beijing. He served as Australia's prime minister from 2007 until he was ousted by members of his ruling Labor Party in June 2010. He also served as foreign minister until earlier this year and remains a member of Parliament.

在陆克文就澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴中国的领导人换届发表评论之际，澳大利亚国内围绕陆克文本人的政治抱负的猜测正在加剧。这位55岁的前外交官能说流利的普通话，与中国有着强有力的联系，包括曾在北京担任外交官。2007年，他就任澳大利亚总理，2010年6月，他被其所在的执政党工党(Labor Party)的成员赶下台。直到今年早些时候之前，他还曾担任外交部长，目前仍是议会议员。

Mr. Rudd on Thursday also acknowledged the deep-seated historical debate over islands disputed between Japan and China, which have recently sent jitters through the region's markets.

陆克文周四还提到了在中日争议岛屿问题上存在的根深蒂固的历史论战。中日领土争端最近搅动了该地区的市场。

'Japan effectively took these islands from China in 1895 after the Sino-Japanese war. Then after the American occupation of Japan, Americans returned these islands to the Japanese,' he said. 'So there's a large degree of international legal complexity underpinning all this.' Still, while tempers have flared, he said he expects both governments to try to buy time to reduce tensions.

他说，1895年中日战争后，日本实际占据了这些岛屿，后来美国占领日本后，美国人将这些岛屿归还给了日本人，所以在这一切的背后有着非常复杂的国际法律问题。不过，在紧张局势升温之际，陆克文说他预计中日两国政府将努力争取时间来缓解紧张关系。

Within resource-rich Australia, concerns have been rising about the extent of the influence of China, the world's second-largest economy. Mr. Rudd stressed the strength of the two nations' relationship, but also highlighted main differences such as China's one-party rule.

在资源丰富的澳大利亚，人们对世界第二大经济体中国影响力的担忧日益加剧。陆克文强调指出，中澳两国关系相当牢固，但也点明了两国之间的主要分歧，比如中国的一党制。

China's insatiable demand for resources has helped drive Australia's economic boom in the past few years, but demand has faltered as China's economy slows. Iron-ore prices have recently fallen to multiyear lows, raising the threat of a hard landing for Australia's mining industry.

过去几年，中国难以满足的资源需求一直在助推澳大利亚的经济飞速发展，但随着中国经济增长放缓，其资源需求有所减弱。最近铁矿石价格连创多年来的新低，澳大利亚矿业出现了硬着陆的危险。

Australia is currently the largest destination for foreign-direct investment from China.

澳大利亚目前是中国最大的对外直接投资目的地。

'We've had a significant correction in commodity prices, but what we're seeking to do in the meantime in Australia…is to broaden the base of the Australian economy,' Mr. Rudd said, including expanding its agriculture and financial and health services to meet Asian demand.

陆克文说，大宗商品价格一直在进行大幅修正，但与此同时我们力求在澳大利亚做的事就是扩大澳大利亚的经济基础，以便满足亚洲的需求，包括扩大农业以及金融和医疗服务业。

In Australia, he remains popular in opinion polls even as he was again defeated in a challenge against incumbent leader Julia Gillard earlier this year. Mr. Rudd declined on Thursday to speculate about his future in Australian politics.

今年早些时候，陆克文在挑战现任总理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)时再次失利，他如今在澳大利亚的民调中人气依然很高。陆克文周四拒绝猜测他在澳大利亚政坛的未来。

'Polls go up, and polls go down. I've been around in politics long enough to know there's a certain law of gravity about all these things….I made a very clear statement on this at the conclusion of the leadership ballot in February,' Mr. Rudd said. 'My position hasn't changed.'

陆克文说，民调结果有起有落，我已经从政很久，我知道所有这一切的背后都有某种“万有引力定律”在起作用；我在2月份的工党领导人选举投票结束时就此发表过非常明确的声明，我的立场一直未变。

At the time, he said he would withdraw from front-line politics and not challenge Ms. Gillard again.

当时，陆克文说，他将从政坛一线退下来，不会再次挑战吉拉德。

Still, Mr. Rudd's supporters say he could reignite his feud with the prime minister if Ms. Gillard doesn't significantly improve the Labor Party's popularity ahead of the next federal elections, which will take place by the end of 2013.

尽管如此，陆克文的支持者说，如果吉拉德在下届联邦选举前没有使工党支持率得到明显的提高，他可能会重新拉开与吉拉德的大战。澳大利亚下届联邦选举将在2013年年底前举行。