塔利班在卡塔尔设联络处目的何在？

News that the Afghan Taliban will be opening an office in the Gulf state of Qatar triggered speculation about possible talks for a political settlement in Afghanistan, but analysts caution against excessive optimism about any deal.

有关阿富汗塔利班将在海湾国家卡塔尔开设联络处的消息引发了外界有关阿富汗各方可能会就政治解决方案展开谈判的猜测。不过，分析人士警告说，不必对任何协议抱过份乐观的态度。

Announcement of the Qatar office came in a statement earlier this month from the Taliban group believed to be based in Quetta, Pakistan. Many of the insurgents who attack U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan have safe havens in Pakistan.

有关卡塔尔联络处的消息据信是总部设在巴基斯坦奎达的一个塔利班组织在本月早些时候的声明中发出的。很多在阿富汗境内袭击美军和盟军的武装反叛分子在巴基斯坦拥有避难所。

Marvin Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute says the U.S. has been talking not only with the Taliban about opening a political office, but also has been prodding President Hamid Karzai to accept such a setup.

中东研究所的马文•维恩鲍姆说，美国不仅在和塔利班探讨开设政治联络处的事宜，同时也在敦促卡尔扎伊总统接受这项安排。

"I'm surprised it took so long," Weinbaum said. "This has been an American initiative."

他说：“我很奇怪事情拖了这么久。这一直是美国的倡议。”

The U.S. currently plans to pull its combat troops out of Afghanistan by 2014, assuming that Afghan military and police forces are able to assume security responsibilities. Analysts say the Qatar office will give the U.S. a channel to talk to Taliban leaders in a neutral area.

美国目前计划在2014年年底前从阿富汗撤出战斗部队。该计划假定阿富汗军方和警方届时可以承担保安责任。分析人士说，卡塔尔办公室可以为美国在中立地区提供一个接触塔利班的渠道。

Karzai said he agreed to the Qatar arrangement, but would have preferred a Taliban office in Turkey or Saudi Arabia. There is considerable suspicion that the Taliban is not really interested in a political settlement that would lead to some kind of power-sharing arrangement, such as division of government ministries.

卡尔扎伊总统说，他同意在卡塔尔的安排，但更加倾向于将塔利班办公室设在土耳其或沙特阿拉伯。关于塔利班对于某种权力分享，比如政府各部分权的政治解决方案是否有兴趣，目前尚存很多疑问。

"Why on earth would they compromise when their end goal is a sharia [Islamic law] state?" Weinbaum said. "They're Pashtuns, sure, but they're Islamists first."

中东研究所的马文•维恩鲍姆说：“他们的目标是建立伊斯兰政教合一的国家，那么他们究竟为什么要接受妥协呢？他们的确是普什图人，但他们首先是伊斯兰教徒。”

U.S. officials have repeatedly said any political settlement should be "Afghan-led." But the Taliban pointedly made no mention of the Kabul government when it announced the Qatar oiffice. It said the two "main parties" in the conflict are the Taliban and the U.S. and its allies. It also called for the release of several key Taliban leaders from the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

美国官员多次表示，任何政治解决方案都将由“阿富汗来主导”。但是，塔利班在宣布设立卡塔尔联络处的时候，明显地没有提及喀布尔政府。这份声明说，冲突的两个“主要方面”是塔利班和美国及其盟友。声明还呼吁美国释放关押在古巴关塔纳摩湾的几名塔利班首脑。

The Taliban also made no mention of Pakistan, which sees itself as having a major interest in any political settlement in Afghanistan. Pakistan is an erstwhile ally of the U.S. in fighting extremism, but the U.S. has also accused Pakistan of supporting Taliban elements as a hedge against India's bid for political and economic influence in Afghanistan. The Washington-Islamabad relationship has deteriorated considerably in recent months.

塔利班在声明中也没有提及巴基斯坦。巴基斯坦认为，阿富汗国内的任何政治解决方案都和巴基斯坦利益息息相关。巴基斯坦曾经是美国在打击极端势力中的盟友，但美国也曾指责巴基斯坦支持塔利班势力，以此抗衡印度在阿富汗谋求政治和经济影响力。最近几个月，美国和巴基斯坦的关系显著降温。

Larry Goodson, a professor at the U.S. Army War College, said the Taliban considers the Karzai government illegitimate. He believes opening the liaison office is simply a bid by the Taliban to buy time until the U.S. and its allies leave Afghanistan.

美国陆军军事学院教授拉里•古德森说，塔利班并不认为卡尔扎伊领导的是合法政府。古德森相信，开设联络处只不过是塔利班在美国及其盟国撤军前采取的拖延战术。"I think it's a gambit, if you will, by the Taliban, but also by their Pakistan supporters to prepare for the situation as the U.S. prepares to withdraw," he said. "I absolutely think they are trying to present themselves as independent from Pakistan. But having said that, I don't think they really are."

他说：“这是塔利班及其巴基斯坦支持者采取的一种伎俩，他们希望在美国准备撤军的时候为将来作出布署。我绝对相信，塔利班试图展示他们独立于巴基斯坦。虽然这么说，但我并不认为他们果真如此。”

Goodson, who has long experience in Afghan-Pakistani affairs, also notes that Pakistan has supported one of the more lethal Taliban factions, the Haqqani network. He says it is possible Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI, may play a double game, supporting one faction in negotiations while supporting the Haqqanis' military operations.

长期研究阿富汗和巴基斯坦事务的古德森还表示，巴基斯坦曾经支持过更加极端的塔利班派别哈卡尼网络。他说，巴基斯坦的情报部门三军情报局(ISI)可能正在玩一场两头下注的游戏--在支持参与谈判派别的同时也支持哈卡尼派别的武装行动。

"[The Taliban] have us over a barrel because, regardless of any liaison office the Taliban seek, they still get rest and recuperation and resupply in Pakistan," Goodson said.

他说：“塔利班让我们进退两难。因为不论塔利班寻求设立哪种联络处，他们都将争取到时候在巴基斯坦养精蓄锐并重整旗鼓。”