欧元兑美元走软

The euro has lost 5.1 percent versus the dollar over the past month. And a spate of poor eurozone economic data Friday further eroded its value, signaling a grim economic outlook for the European economy in 2012.

过去一个月，欧元对美元汇率下跌了5.1%。星期五出炉的欧元区糟糕的经济数据进一步令欧元贬值，显示2012年欧洲经济前景黯淡。

At 13 years old, the euro is barely a teenager. But, so far, it has had an eventful life.

问世13年的欧元还只不过是年轻货币。但迄今为止，欧元已经历了大起大落。

At its inception, Germany, the currency zone’s biggest economy, was still digesting the huge costs of incorporating East Germany, and there were wider concerns about whether such an ambitious project of a common currency would even work.

欧元问世初期，欧元区最大的经济体德国还在消化因合并东德而带给它的巨额成本。当时存在更广泛的担心，即这样一个雄心勃勃的共同货币体制是否能够运转。

Despite concerns, it soon matched the dollar one for one. Then shot past it. Even after the financial crisis in 2007 - and a recession soon after - it held its value.

尽管存在担忧，欧元对美元汇率很快达到1比1，之后还突破了1比1。就算是在2007年金融危机以及随后出现经济衰退之后，欧元币值依然稳定。

But now a second eurozone recession is back and the markets have turned against it. Friday it hit a 16-month low against the dollar.

但是现在，欧元区第二次陷入衰退，市场已经转而回避欧元。星期五，欧元对美元汇率创下16个月以来的最低点。

Jeremy Stretch a London-based currency strategist for the Canadian Bank CIBC, explains the weaknesses analysts identified several years ago are finally surfacing.

加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)驻伦敦的货币策略师杰瑞米·斯特莱齐解释说，分析人士几年前指出的欧元弱点终于浮出水面。

"I think those flaws were essentially being masked by the process of broader economic growth and it’s now only when we see a downturn that we haven’t seen in the majority of peoples' lifetimes that’s really underlined the sort of structural failings within the Eurozone project. It was a process designed by politicians and that’s part of the inherent flaw. The politicians didn’t design the process in the optimal way," he said.

斯特莱齐说：“我认为，那些缺陷是被更广泛的经济增长所掩盖了。而现在，只有当我们看到人们一生中大部分时间未曾见过的经济下行时，才真正凸显出欧元区的这种结构弱点。这是政治家们设计的一种架构，这是它与生俱来的缺陷的一部分。政治家们没有以最理想的方式来设计这种架构。”

The story may not just be euro weakness, but dollar strength. U.S. economic statistics were depressed until fall 2011 - with high unemployment, huge and growing government debt, and a housing market still yet to recover.

问题可能并不只在于欧元的弱势，还在于美元的强势。在2011年秋季之前，美国经济统计数据令人沮丧，高失业率、日益膨胀的巨额政府债务，还有房地产市场仍未复苏。But now there are signs of improvement.

但是现在出现了改善的迹象。

On Friday the U.S. reported that it created 200,000 jobs in December, the sixth month in a row of gains. The unemployment rate is now 8.5 percent. It was 10.1 percent just over two years ago. Unlike the eurozone, the U.S. isn’t predicted to fall back into recession in 2012.

美国星期五报告说，12月份美国经济创造了20万个就业岗位，这是连续第6个月出现净增长。目前的失业率为8.5%。两年多前失业率还高居10.1%。与欧元区不同的是，美国并未预计2012年经济会再度陷入衰退。

"Going back to the start of the crisis, the U.S. was the first economy to really suffer the depths of the downturn and I think the U.S. were relatively early in terms of some of the procedural measures they put in place to try to alleviate that - in terms of cutting interest rates to effectively zero and putting in fairly sizeable injections of capital into the banking system and into the economy at large," Stretch stated. "So in essence there is an element of first in, first out.”

加拿大帝国商业银行的杰瑞米·斯泰齐说：“回顾此次危机开始的时候，美国是第一个真正遭受经济严重下行的经济体。我认为美国是相对较早采取程序性措施以缓解经济下行的经济体。这些措施包括将利率降至实际为零的水平，向银行系统和经济注入相当规模的资本。因此就体现了这样因素，就是第一个陷入，也会第一个走出。”

And looking ahead into 2012, the downsides all look to be on the eurozone. Greece may default. France could lose its AAA credit rating. Some of its biggest banks could need government bail outs. Where the euro enters its 14th year in 2013, who knows what it’ll be worth.

展望2012年，呈消极趋势的看来都在欧元区。希腊可能对其债务违约。法国可能丧失AAA的信用评级。一些最大的银行可能需要政府救助。当2013年欧元进入它的第14个年头时，谁知道欧元还将价值几何？