汇丰,漫长的告别

It is moot whether long-serving chief executives time their exits to coincide with buoyant results, or vice versa. Either way, Stuart Gulliver or HSBC, which he leaves in 2018, may have fluffed a cue. Adjusted profits before tax rose 12.4 per cent to $11.9bn at the half year, beating forecasts and taking the shares briefly within a whisker of post-crisis high.

任职多年的首席执行官是否会选在业绩优异时离职——或者反过来——这一问题并无定论。无论怎样，定于2018年离职的欧智华(Stuart Gulliver)或汇丰(HSBC)都可能发出了错误的提示。上半年汇丰调整后税前利润上涨12.4%至119亿美元，不但高于预测值，且一度差点让股价冲上危机后高点。

Mr Gulliver was coy on the repeatability of the $2bn buyback scheduled for the second half. But some investors believe the item should now recur. Conduct charges certainly have in recent years. They were represented this time by a $300m provision for mis-sold payment protection insurance.

关于下半年20亿美元回购计划的可重复性，欧智华不愿多谈。但有些投资者认为应该会再次发生。与不当从业行为有关的费用近年来显然一再发生。这次是一笔与不当销售支付保护险(PPI)有关的3亿美元准备金。

Core tier one equity, a measure of financial strength, has risen to 14.7 per cent of risk-weighted assets. That gives the bank $13bn of capital over and above its target of 13 per cent, UBS notes. HSBC will invest some of the money and use another slice as a buffer against risk. The buyback would be deducted from the balance.

汇丰核心一级资本（衡量财务实力）已上升至风险加权资产的14.7%。瑞银(UBS)表示这使汇丰银行的资本比13%的资本充足率目标高出130亿美元。汇丰将把部分资金用于投资，并拿出另一部分资金用来缓冲风险。此次回购所用资金将从余额中扣除。

Further share repurchases depend on risks remaining in check and profits staying healthy. On the first count, a danger is that China becomes less tolerant of HSBC’s dominant position in retail banking in Hong Kong. The second relies on the first. Deposits have been growing strongly in the former UK colony. As rates rise they should fatten a net interest margin that has slipped to 1.64 per cent.

进一步股票回购取决于风险继续受到控制，以及利润保持健康。就第一点来说，中国对汇丰在香港零售银行业主导地位的容忍度在下降，这是个危险。而第二点要依靠第一点。这块前英国殖民地的存款一直增长强劲。随着利率上升，他们应该把已下滑至1.64%的净利息收益率提高。

Westerners fret perpetually over high Chinese leverage, to which Chinese bankers huffily reply: “look at our assets”. Higher Asian loan provisions this half year have other causes. Systemic dangers are therefore in abeyance, even if HSBC needs to assess each borrower more closely.

西方人始终对中国的高杠杆感到担忧，中国银行家们对此愤怒地回复：“看看我们的资产”。这半年亚洲贷款损失准备金的增加有其他原因。因此系统性风险的问题可以暂时搁置，即使汇丰需要更密切地评估每个借款人。

A focus on Asian savers reduces the perils implicit in Brexit-related restructuring and ownership of a large investment bank. HSBC does not expect a rejig triggered by the UK’s conscious uncoupling to cost more than $300m. Over the past six months, the global banking and markets unit raised adjusted profits before tax 32 per cent to $3.4bn. Over the next six months, who knows?

对亚洲储户的关注，降低了与英国脱欧相关的重组以及拥有一家大型投行可能暗藏的风险。汇丰没有预料到英国主动脱欧所引发的重组将耗费超过3亿美元。在过去六个月中，全球银行和市场部门的调整后税前利润提高了32%，达到34亿美元。而接下来的六个月谁知道？

The shares look fully valued at 14 times forward earnings and 1.8 times tangible book value. Conspiracy theorists may still consider buying on the basis that Mr Gulliver is holding back further goodies for his valedictory full-year results. After that, they would sell in anticipation of the writedowns a revisionist successor might bring.

股票看起来估值充分，预期市盈率达到14倍，市净率达到1.8倍。阴谋论者或许仍考虑购买，理由是欧智华正为他的全年业绩告别秀隐瞒更多利好。之后他们会抛售，因为他们预期修正主义的继任者或许会做一些减记。