锡价今年涨50% 供需均存在担忧

Tin, an often overlooked industrial metal, has risen almost 50 per cent this year, making it one of the top performing commodities.

锡价今年以来上涨近50%，使这种经常被忽视的工业金属成为表现最好的大宗商品之一。

For the past few years the price for the metal — used in electronics for soldering and to line steel cans — has been on a roller-coaster ride as supplies from important producers have waxed and waned.

锡被用于电子设备中的焊接和铁罐内的电镀层。近几年，由于来自重要生产商的供应忽多忽少，这种金属的价格像过山车那样大起大落。

After falling to the lowest level since 2009 to $13,085 a tonne in January, tin is trading at $21,400 a tonne.

在今年1月跌至每吨13085美元的2009年以来最低点后，目前锡价已回升至每吨21400美元。

The metal started its descent in 2014 after supplies from Myanmar flooded the market. For much of 2015, prices hovered around a six-year low, prompting the largest smelters to pledge output cuts and ask Beijing to stockpile more.

在来自缅甸的大量供应流入市场后，这种金属的价格在2014年开始下降。在2015年的大部分时间里，锡价徘徊在六年低点，促使最大的几家冶炼厂承诺减产，并请求北京方面增加储备。

Declines reversed thanks to ore output falls from Indonesia, Peru and China itself.

由于印尼、秘鲁和中国的锡矿石产量下降，锡价开始止跌回升。

Prices have rallied as inventory levels have fallen. “Visible” stocks held in London Metal Exchange or Shanghai Future Exchange warehouses are at their lowest since at least 2000, says the International Tin Research Institute, although it adds that there is a “high level of under-reported stocks in China”.

随着库存水平下降，锡价呈现涨势。国际锡研究所(ITRI)表示，存放在伦敦金属交易所(LME)或上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)仓库的“显性”库存处于至少自2000年以来最低水平，尽管该机构补充说，“中国存在较高水平的漏报库存”。

The market has also been boosted by speculative activity in China. “We have to bear in mind always that the money flows, the investment funds, can be the determining factor in any metals price,” said Peter Kettle of the ITRI, speaking at its annual conference in Shanghai this week.

中国的投机活动也提振了市场。“我们必须始终牢记，资金流动、投资基金，这些可能成为任何金属价格的决定因素，”国际锡研究所的彼得.凯特(Peter Kettle)在该机构本周于上海举行的年会上表示。

Further stock drops could trigger a rise in prices “well above equilibrium level”, he said.

他表示，库存进一步下降可能推升价格至“远高于均衡水平”。

The level of investor activity has been highlighted by trading on the futures market in Shanghai, which seems to have helped turn tin into the second most actively traded metal on the LME this year.

上海期货市场的交易突显了投资者活动的水平，这似乎已帮助锡成为伦敦金属交易所今年第二活跃的金属。

At the conference, Li Gang, general manager of Yunnan Tin, which accounts for more than a quarter of global refined tin output, called for a “sustainable recovery” in the market, “rather than volatility caused by hot money or speculation in futures markets”.

在上述会议上，精炼锡产量占全球四分之一以上的云南锡业(Yunnan Tin)的总经理李刚呼吁引导市场实现“可持续复苏”，而不是由热钱或期货市场投机造成的波动。

The big concern for tin smelters is future supplies of ore. BMI Research is forecasting a supply shortfall of 9,400 tonnes in 2020 amid “depleting ore reserves”.

锡冶炼厂主要担忧的是未来矿石供应状况。BMI Research预测，随着“矿石储量逐渐枯竭”，2020年将出现9400吨的供应缺口。

Nearly 30 per cent of Chinese smelter capacity sits idle, a warning sign that high prices are likely to outrun downstream demand.

中国近30%的冶炼产能处于闲置状态，这是一个警示迹象，表明当前的高价很可能跑在了下游需求的前面。