南苏丹内讧 危机加剧 石油供应担忧

The crisis in South Sudan, which has left hundreds dead, has started to hit global oil supplies, compounding the effects of production losses in Nigeria and Libya and putting upwards pressure on oil prices.

已造成数百人死亡的南苏丹危机开始冲击全球石油供应。原本尼日利亚和利比亚减产，对油价产生上行压力，现在这种压力更大了。

Africa has replaced the Middle East as the focus of concern over global oil supplies due to re­cent disruptions in the three petroleum-rich countries. “People are expecting a shortage in supply,” Ali Naimi, the veteran Sau­di oil minister, said this weekend in an unusual warning.

由于这三个盛产石油的非洲国家近来产量降低，非洲已取代中东成为全球石油供应领域引发担忧的焦点地区。资深的沙特石油部长阿里•纳伊米(Ali Naimi)上周末发出一次非同寻常的警告，称“人们预计石油供应将出现短缺。”

Rebels yesterday captured the capital of South Sudan’s oil-rich Unity State, Bentiu, intensifying fears over the risks to the country’s oilfields.

昨日叛军占领了南苏丹石油资源丰富的联合州(Unity State)的首府本提乌(Bentiu)，令市场更加担心该国油田面临的风险。

Foreign oil companies operating in South Sudan have started to reduce production from some oilfields, a process that would take several days, industry executives said. Before the crisis started, the country pumped about 250,000 barrels a day.

行业高管表示，在南苏丹经营业务的外国石油公司已开始降低一些油田的产量，这一过程要花上几天时间。危机爆发之前，南苏丹石油日产量为25万桶。

The executives, who refused to be named because of security concerns, said they could not quantify the output loss. Though this was still relatively small, they warned that escalation of the conflict could deal a damaging blow to output.

出于安全原因要求匿名的高管表示，他们无法给出具体的减产数据。尽管减产幅度相对很小，但他们警告称，危机升级可能对产量构成很大冲击。

“The loss will depend on what happens this week on the ground,” said an executive. “If the fighting continues near the fields, we will see more wells shut down; if both sides guarantee some security, the production may continue,” he added.

一位高管说：“减产幅度有多大，要看本周南苏丹的局势发展如何。”他补充道：“如果战斗在油田附近持续，那么将有更多油井被关闭；如果双方在一定程度上保障油田安全，那么产量可能不会受到太大的影响。”

The crisis comes as the oil market also weathers the loss of about 350,000 b/d from Nigeria due to sabotage and theft, and at least 1.1m b/d from Libya because of fighting between Tripoli and local militias.

这场危机发生之际，石油市场已经在艰难应对供应的下降：尼日利亚由于破坏和盗窃每日减产约35万桶，利比亚由于政府军与叛军之间的冲突每日至少减产110万桶。

The cumulative loss of production in Africa is now hovering about 1.5m b/d – well above the total incremental oil production this year from the US shale revolution. Seith Kleiman, oil strategist at Citigroup in London, said that supply disruptions had underpinned oil prices throughout 2013: “The year is ending in familiar fashion.”

目前，非洲石油减产幅度在每日150万桶附近徘徊，远高于今年以来美国页岩革命增加的总石油产量。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻伦敦的石油行业策略师塞思•克兰曼(seth Kleinman)表示，2013年全年，供应减少对油价构成了支撑：“今年底的油价行情跟往年相似。”

Oil prices are set to hit their third highest annual record in 2013, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, averaging $108.6 a barrel so far this year. The average is slightly lower than records set in 2012 and 2011 of $111 and $110, respectively.

今年迄今，全球油价基准——布伦特(Brent)原油价格平均价达到每桶108.6美元，这将使2013年成为历史上全球油价第三高的年份。上述平均油价略低于前两次最高纪录——2012年的每桶111美元和2011年的110美元。

The crisis in South Sudan showed little sign of receding at the weekend. US military aircraft were hit by gunfire as they tried to rescue stranded Americans.

上周末，南苏丹危机未显出丝毫减弱的迹象。美国军机前往救援受困美国公民之时，遭到了地面火力的袭击。