缅甸神秘的矿藏搅动全球锡市场

Mysterious mines in Myanmar have become important to the world tin market in a sign of how the country’s opening-up is revealing resources obscured during decades of military dictatorship and internal conflict.

缅甸神秘的矿藏对全球锡市场变得重要起来，这一迹象表明，这个国家的开放正将数十年军事独裁和国内冲突期间不为外界所知的丰富资源展现在世界面前。

The Southeast Asian state has caused a stir in metal-rich countries from Peru to Indonesia thanks to its opencast mines in the Wa region near the Chinese border that has been ruled by an armed ethnic party for more than 25 years.

得益于佤邦地区的露天矿藏，这个东南亚国家已在金属资源丰富的国家（从秘鲁到印度尼西亚）中搅动起波澜。佤邦靠近中国边境，已被一个拥有武装的少数民族政党统治了25年以上。

The region is controlled by the United Wa State party, which has an armed wing and has long had close political and economic ties with China.

佤邦由佤邦联合党(United Wa State party)控制，该党拥有一支武装力量，长期以来一直与中国保持着密切的政治经济联系。

Myanmar’s re-emergence as a big producer of the metal after a break of more than six decades has been branded by one tin market analysis as a black swan event.

缅甸时隔60多年后重新崛起成为锡生产大国，这被一份锡市场分析报告归为一起黑天鹅事件。

Over the past four years, Myanmar’s return has depressed the tin markets, but this year prices have risen as traders anticipate the supply could peak.

过去四年里，缅甸的回归压低了锡市场价格，但随着交易商预期供应可能见顶，今年价格已经上涨。

Myanmar’s production of initially astonishingly high grade ore has surged more than 10-fold in four years in Wa, according to the International Tin Research Institute.

国际锡研究协会(International Tin Research Institute)数据显示，过去四年，缅甸最初奇高品味的锡矿石在佤邦的产量增长到原来的10倍以上。

The country now satisfies about a third of China’s demand for the metal and 10 per cent of global supply.

缅甸现在约满足了中国三分之一的锡需求，以及全球10%的供应。

In the first half of the year exports of tin to China surged by more than 80 per cent.

今年上半年缅甸对中国锡出口大幅增长80%以上。

The metal is an ingredient of the solder widely used by the electronics industry.

锡是焊料成分之一，在电子工业中使用广泛。

Tin is unlikely to be the last resource surprise as this mineral-rich country presses on with reforms that began when the military dictatorship stepped down in 2011 after almost half a century of isolationist rule.

锡可能不会是缅甸在资源方面带给世界的最后一个意外。这个矿藏丰富的国家正在力推改革，这一改革始于2011年缅甸军事独裁政府下台后，该政府对缅甸实施了近半个世纪的孤立主义统治。

The future of billions of dollars of commodity wealth, some of it in conflict zones, will also be a critical part of peace talks due to be launched this week by Aung San Suu Kyi’s fledgling civilian-led government.

昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)的新文官政府定于本周启动和平谈判，数十亿美元大宗商品财富——部分位于冲突地区——的未来也将是和平谈判的关键部分。

Win Htein, an Aung San Suu Kyi confidant, said of the mines at Man Maw in the Wa region: Even for us, it’s still a mystery.

昂山素季的亲信温登(Win Htein)表示，佤邦曼莫(Man Maw)的矿藏即使对于我们来说也仍然是个迷。

They are quiet and very wise — and they keep their movements low-key.

它们安静而睿智，而且它们保持了行事低调。

The tin story is just one example of how Myanmar’s international reintegration is uncovering resources that one long-time observer of the country says were previously not known at all — or not known except to a select few.

缅甸重返国际社会正将此前完全无人知晓或仅为特定的少数人所知（如一位长期观察缅甸事态的人士所说）的矿藏资源展现在世人面前。锡的故事只是例子之一。

Uncontrolled exploitation by both Myanmar’s regional armed groups and the former ruling military of jade and other assets has driven war, environmental destruction and large-scale tax evasion.

缅甸各地方武装组织、前执政的军方对玉石及其他资源的无节制开采，带来了战争、环境破坏及大规模逃漏税。

The future of natural boons ranging from tin to timber will loom large at the peace conference starting on August 31 in Naypyidaw, the capital, which is billed as a first step towards ending Myanmar’s more than 60 years of on-off internal conflict.

这些自然馈赠——从锡到木材——的未来，将成为8月31日起在首都内比都召开的和平大会上的重要议题。此次大会被宣传为终结缅甸60多年断断续续内部冲突的第一步。

If the wealth of the country is going to be equitably distributed, it’s necessary these resource revenues are captured, said Richard Horsey, a Yangon-based analyst. They are a large part of the reason why armed groups are sustainable.

如果这个国家的财富要得到公平分配，首先必须要得到这些资源收入，驻仰光的分析人士理查德•霍西(Richard Horsey)说，它们是武装组织得以维持的很大一部分原因。

There are now signs that tin production could be peaking.

现在有迹象表明，缅甸的锡产量可能正在达到峰值。

That twist could cut revenues for the Wa militia and further boost the rally in the world tin price that has seen it notch an 18-month-high of $18,770 a tonne.

这一转变可能将减少佤邦民兵的收入，并进一步提振全球锡价反弹，每吨18770美元的价格已是18个月以来的最高点。

A peak in Myanmar’s production could help push the global tin market into a deficit in a few years, as production has also declined in other producing countries such as Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

缅甸锡产量见顶可能帮助推动全球锡市场在未来几年出现短缺，因为秘鲁、刚果民主共和国等其他生产国的产量也出现了下滑。

In Indonesia, a rule banning the export of unprocessed materials has also hurt exports.

在印度尼西亚，禁止出口未加工原材料的规定也限制了锡出口。

Robin Bhar, an analyst at Société Générale, said he expects the market to move into a deficit of 5,000 tonnes next year.

法国兴业银行(Société Générale)分析师罗宾•巴尔(Robin Bhar)表示，他预计明年全球锡市场的缺口为5000吨。

That could leave China short of supply, he said.

他说，这或将导致中国出现供应短缺。

Myanmar production is likely to level off because the mainly open pit mining in Wa has now moved underground, where the tin content of the ore is lower, the ITRI said.

国际锡研究协会表示，缅甸锡产量很可能趋向稳定，因为佤邦以露天开采为主的采矿活动现在已经进入地下开采阶段，而地下矿石的锡含量较低。

But Cui Lin, an ITRI analyst who has visited the mines, warned that it was unclear how much tin there was, as large parts of the area remained unexplored.

曾参观过这些矿山的该协会分析师崔琳提醒说，目前还不清楚锡储量有多少，因为该地区大部分仍未得到勘探。