人民币的韧性恐难持续太久

China’s renminbi seems largely resilient a year after its sudden devaluation.

在突然贬值一年后，中国的人民币似乎相当稳健。

The currency has weakened by only a couple of per cent against the dollar this year as the Federal Reserve has refrained from raising interest rates.

今年迄今美联储(Fed)没有加息，人民币兑美元只贬值2%左右。

The People’s Bank of China’s foreign reserves have stopped falling and the spread between China’s onshore and offshore exchange rates has almost vanished.

中国央行(PBoC)的外汇储备已停止下滑，中国境内外市场的汇率差距几乎消失。

The currency’s resilience, however, is unlikely to last.

不过，人民币的韧性不太可能持续下去。

In particular, the amount of offshore renminbi deposits, having peaked last year when the currency was devalued, has continued to shrink this year despite the exchange rate becoming more stable again.

特别是，曾在去年人民币贬值时见顶的境外人民币存款规模，无视人民币汇率再次趋稳而在今年继续缩水。

The diminishing size of the offshore market is the canary in the coalmine, signalling that renewed currency turbulence is likely in future.

离岸人民币市场的不断萎缩，就好比煤矿中的金丝雀，显示未来可能发生新的汇率动荡。

Holding the currency outside the mainland, however, allows investors to gain exposure to China’s economy without incurring its capital controls.

不过，在中国内地以外的地区持有人民币，令投资者可以在不招惹中国资本管制的情况下，获得对中国经济的敞口。

The persistent fall in offshore deposits — down nearly a third to $180bn in the past year — shows confidence in the currency remains fragile.

离岸人民币存款的持续下滑（在过去一年里缩水近三分之一，至1800亿美元），显示出各方对人民币的信心依然十分脆弱。

Firstly, shrinking offshore renminbi deposits reflect Chinese companies paying down dollar-denominated loans after last year’s devaluation increased the risk of borrowing in foreign currencies.

首先，不断萎缩的离岸人民币存款表明，由于去年的贬值加大了外汇借款风险，中国企业正在偿还以美元计价的贷款。

Local groups are using renminbi funds held outside the mainland to cut external debts.

中资集团正在动用存在境外的人民币资金削减外部债务。

Domestic corporates are also running down onshore deposits.

国内企业也在降低境内存款规模。

But shrinking offshore renminbi holdings — having closely tracked the decline in companies’ foreign borrowing over the past year — indicate how capital continues to flow out of China’s economy despite the current calm in the exchange rate.

但离岸人民币持有量的不断收缩（过去一年里，这一趋势紧跟企业外汇借款的减少）说明，尽管目前汇率平稳，但资金仍在流出中国。

Secondly, contracting offshore renminbi deposits reflect the shift in retail sentiment away from holding China’s currency.

其次，离岸人民币存款的减少，反映出散户对人民币的持有意愿正在下降。

The renminbi has been advertised in Asia’s high streets as a long-term, higher-yielding investment for individuals and households.

在亚洲零售市场，人民币一直被推销为适合个人和家庭的长期、高收益投资对象。

Last year’s devaluation made it clear that the currency was not a one-way upward bet.

去年的贬值明确表明，这种货币并不是一种只会涨不会跌的单向押注。

This year’s declines in renminbi deposits held abroad shows retail investors continue to shun the currency.

今年人民币境外存款持有量的下滑，表明散户在继续回避人民币。

Thirdly, offshore renminbi holdings are shrinking even while China continues to run large monthly trade surpluses.

第三，甚至是在中国每月依然运行巨大贸易顺差的情况下，境外人民币的持有量依然在下滑。

Exporters appear unwilling to convert foreign earnings into renminbi deposits outside the mainland, reflecting concern the exchange rate will depreciate again in future.

出口商似乎不愿将外汇盈利在境外兑换成人民币存款，表明它们担心人民币将来会再次贬值。

Lastly, declining offshore deposits are also tied to foreign investors unwinding renminbi carry trades.

最后，离岸人民币存款的下滑还与外国投资者撤销人民币套利交易有关。

These appear to have begun in the summer of 2014 when using data from the Bank for International settlements.

从国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据分析，这种现象似乎从2014年夏季就开始了。

Foreign banks’ consolidated claims on their Chinese counterparts — a proxy for carry trades in China’s currency — peaked at $1tn before falling steadily during the past couple of years.

境外银行对境内银行的总债权——人民币套利交易的一个风向标——在达到1万亿美元的峰值后，在过去两年里稳步下滑。

In contrast, renminbi deposits outside the mainland peaked only when the exchange rate was devalued last August.

与此相反，中国内地以外的人民币存款只是在去年8月人民币汇率贬值时才见顶。

But this year’s simultaneous declines in both foreign banks’ claims on onshore banks and in the amount of renminbi held offshore show confidence is low in the currency’s future prospects.

不过，今年境外银行对境内银行的债权和人民币境外持有量同时下滑，表明人们对人民币未来前景的信心十分低迷。

Underlying the bearish sentiment on the renminbi is the fear that capital outflows will accelerate once the Federal Open Market Committee starts to tighten monetary policy again.

这种看空人民币情绪的背后，是人们担心联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)一旦开始再次收紧货币政策，中国的资金外流将会加速。

It was the threat of the Fed raising interest rates for the first time in a decade that prompted the PBoC to devalue the exchange rate 12 months ago.

而正是美联储10年来首次加息的威胁，促使中国央行在12个月前将人民币贬值。

The renminbi’s central parity rate plunged from 6.11 to 6.40 against the dollar last August.

去年8月份，人民币兑美元汇率中间价从1美元兑6.11元人民币急剧下滑至1美元兑6.40元人民币。

The Fed’s decision to start increasing interest rates in December led to the PBoC fixing the onshore exchange rate at 6.56 versus the greenback at the beginning of the year.

而美联储在去年12月开始加息的决定，促使中国央行在今年初将汇率中间价设定在1美元兑6.56元人民币。

Concern the Fed would raise interest rates for a second time this summer led to the renminbi’s central rate to hit almost 6.70 last month.

对美联储今年夏季会再次加息的担忧，曾导致汇率中间价在上月逼近1美元兑6.70元人民币。

The renminbi’s outsize falls over the past year have been spurred by just one US rate rise.

过去一年里人民币的过大跌幅，是由美国仅仅一次加息导致的。

The fear that Fed rate rises in future will lead to greater capital outflows underpins the contraction in offshore renminbi deposits.

对美联储未来加息会加剧资金外流的担忧，固化了人民币境外存款减少的趋势。

Holdings of renminbi outside mainland China are unlikely to vanish altogether.

不过，在中国内地以外持有的人民币不太可能完全消失。

China’s growing weight in the global economy, the desire of long-term investors to diversify portfolios away from big currencies and a gradual easing of capital controls

中国在全球经济中日益加大的份量、长线投资者将其投资组合多元化的愿望、以及逐渐放宽的资本管制，

should lead to the size of offshore renminbi deposits recovering over the next few years as China’s currency is used more freely in international payments.

都应该会在人民币用于国际支付的自由度越来越大的同时，促使离岸人民币存款的规模在今后几年内有所恢复。

Holdings of renminbi abroad may become as familiar as petrodollars are seen outside the US.

人民币境外存款将变得与美国境外的石油美元一样常见。

But the fall in offshore renminbi signals confidence has not returned a year after its devaluation.

不过，人民币境外存款的下跌，显示出在人民币贬值一年后，人们的信心仍未恢复。

Fragile sentiment is set to keep the renminbi vulnerable to fresh turbulence.

脆弱的市场情绪将使人民币依然容易受到新的市场动荡的影响。