恐袭频发 德国的韧性还能维持多久

At least one group in Germany did not seem relieved when Friday’s deadly shooting in Munich turned out to be the work not of jihadi terrorists but of a lone German-Iranian gunman lacking an apparent political motive.

上周五的慕尼黑枪击事件并非出自圣战恐怖分子之手，而是一名没有明显政治动机的伊朗裔德国枪手单独所为，对此德国至少有一个组织并没有感到松了一口气。

The rightwing populist Alternative for Germany party (AfD) had tried to exploit the carnage. With an eye on forthcoming regional elections, the party held Chancellor Angela Merkel and her migration policy responsible for the “terror in Germany and Europe”.

右翼民粹主义政党“德国新选项党”(AfD)曾尝试利用这次大屠杀。为了在即将到来的地区选举中争取支持，德国新选项党称，德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)和她的移民政策要为“发生在德国和欧洲的恐怖行为”负责。

So far, their message has had little effect. In the aftermath of Munich — where 10 people died, including the gunman — moderate politicians and citizens alike showed calm and solidarity.

到目前为止，这一观点没有引起多大反响。在慕尼黑事件——包括枪手在内，共有10人死亡——之后，立场温和的政治家和公民都表现出了冷静和团结。

That incident, however, came in the wake of an axe attack by an Afghan refugee on a train in Würzburg on July 18, and it was followed by two incidents on Sunday that both involved Syrian asylum seekers: one who had pledged allegiance to Isis blew himself up outside a music festival in Ansbach, injuring 12 people; and another killed a woman with a machete in Reutlingen, in what police suggest was “a crime of passion”.

然而，在这起事件发生前的7月18日，一名阿富汗难民在维尔茨堡(Würzburg)一列火车上持斧伤人。而在慕尼黑事件后的周日（即7月24日）又发生了两起跟叙利亚难民有关的袭击事件：一名曾对“伊斯兰国”(Isis)宣誓效忠的男子在安斯巴赫(Ansbach)一场音乐节现场外炸死自己，造成12人受伤；还有一人在罗伊特林根(Reutlingen)持刀杀死一名女性，警方称之为“激情犯罪”。

It appears that Germany is vulnerable, but the attempts of the AfD to use Munich for political advantage drew opprobrium. It was striking that while President François Hollande of France condemned Friday night’s “act of terrorism”, few German politicians outside the AfD used the term.

看起来德国很脆弱，但新选项党试图利用慕尼黑事件获取政治利益的举动遭到了抨击。引人注目的是，尽管法国总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)谴责了上周五晚间的“恐怖主义行径”，但在德国，除了新选项党之外几乎没有政治家使用这个措词。

While, after Ansbach, Winfried Bausback, Bavaria’s justice minister, wrote that “Islamic terror has reached Germany”, so far there has been no talk of the kind of “war against terrorism” that Mr Hollande declared in France.

尽管德国巴伐利亚州司法部长温弗里德•鲍斯巴克(Winfried Bausback)在安斯巴赫事件之后写下了“伊斯兰恐怖活动已扩散到德国”这样的话，但迄今为止，德国人并未谈论奥朗德在法国宣布的那种“反恐战争”。

From a German perspective, military action against terrorists in a volatile global situation has to be part of a wider strategy. The country will, however, have to step up its engagement to help stabilise the Middle East, north Africa and the Sahel, where failing states, rampant Islamism and displacement of populations represent a significant risk to Europe.

站在德国的角度来看，在当今动荡的国际局势下，打击恐怖分子的军事行动必须被纳入一项更宏大的战略之中。然而，德国将不得不更深地介入，以帮助稳定中东、北非和萨赫勒地区(the Sahel)的局势，在这些地区，走向失败的国家、伊斯兰主义的流行以及民众流离失所，对欧洲构成了重大风险。

Despite the four incidents taking place in quick succession, there has been no groundswell of support for a crackdown by the secret services. For the time being, the debate in Germany on the appropriate domestic response is far removed from that in France, where the state of emergency is the “new normal”.

尽管在短时间内相继发生四起袭击事件，德国并未出现支持由特工机关实施镇压行动的强烈呼声。眼下，德国有关国内应如何恰当应对当前局面的辩论与法国大为不同，在法国，紧急状态已成为“新常态”。

The tone may change if the attacks continue and more evidence appears linking refugees to terrorist organisations, and this could have implications for the country’s migration debate.

如果继续发生袭击事件，并且有更多证据表明难民与恐怖组织有联系，那么德国的舆论或许会发生变化，这可能对该国关于移民问题的辩论产生影响。

While the federal government has increased spending on integration, the question of how to assimilate, in particular, unaccompanied minors has become especially pressing since the Würzburg attack, which was carried out by a 17-year-old. Moreover, Ms Merkel’s liberal stance on migration retains public support only because the numbers entering Germany fell so dramatically after a fragile deal with Turkey this year.

尽管德国联邦政府已增加了在移民融入方面的开支，但如何同化移民——尤其是孤身无伴的未成年人——的问题在维尔茨堡事件后已变得特别紧迫。维尔茨堡袭击是由一名年仅17岁的人发起的。此外，默克尔在移民问题上的自由立场之所以仍获得公众支持，是因为今年与土耳其签订了一份脆弱的协议之后，进入德国的移民数量显著下降。

Up to now, the government has managed to convey a sense of control. A poll conducted in the three days following Würzburg showed sustained support for the parties in the governing coalition, while the AfD’s rating dropped to 11 per cent. So far, the AfD and other anti-immigration movements have failed to sow distrust and fear, as populists in other countries have done.

到目前为止，德国政府成功地传递了一种掌控着局面的感觉。在维尔茨堡事件发生后三天内进行的一份调查显示，执政联盟中的政党依然受到民众支持，而新选项党的支持率下降至11%。迄今为止，新选项党等反移民组织没能像其他国家的民粹主义者那样成功地散布猜忌和恐惧情绪。

After the Munich shooting, Germans stood together in a remarkable way. The city was in lockdown within minutes, with all public transport closing.

在慕尼黑枪击事件之后，德国人令人惊讶地团结在一起。事件发生不久全城封锁，所有公共交通停运。

Meanwhile, the hashtag “offenetuer” (open door) trended on Twitter as citizens gave shelter to strangers.

同时，“打开大门”标签(#offenetuer)在推特(Twitter)上流行起来，市民们为陌生人提供栖身之所。

This reaction is a hopeful sign in a society that, like others in the west, will have to get used to being targeted, from within and without. That resilience will be put to the test if the attacks continue.

在这个将不得不与其他西方国家一样习惯被当作攻击目标——包括来自内部和外部的攻击——的社会，这种反应是一种让人充满希望的迹象。如果继续发生袭击事件，那么这种韧性将面临考验。