经济增长数据欠佳 直升机撒钱还不到时候

Against a backdrop of subpar economic growth, and with low oil prices acting as a headwind to inflation, central banks have tried to convince increasingly sceptical investors that they are not out of options to reflate. In this context, “helicopter money” has become more widely discussed.

在经济增长数据欠佳、低油价抑制通胀的背景下，各大央行正在试图说服日益狐疑的投资者：他们尚未穷尽通货再膨胀手段。有鉴于此，“直升机撒钱”(helicopter money)引发了更广泛的讨论。

Helicopter money is associated with the idea of a permanent increase in the money base achieved through a direct transfer of cash to the public (a metaphorical drop of banknotes from the sky), circumventing banking channels, or through overt financing of the fiscal deficit by the central bank. In this way, the public would see that the higher government spending/lower taxes were financed via the printing press, without involving lower spending or higher taxes in the future to repay the debt.

“直升机撒钱”指的是，央行绕过银行渠道，直接将现金转移给公众（好比从天上抛洒钞票）、或是由央行公开出资填补财政赤字，从而永久性增加基础货币供应量。通过这种方式，公众看到的是政府增加支出/减税的资金来自“印钞机”，而不涉及未来减少支出/增税来偿还债务。

Enthusiasm for more fiscal action when policy rates appear to have reached their lower bound is understandable and supported by economic analysis. What is often missed is that, to some degree, monetary and fiscal policies are already reinforcing one another. This may not be in ways as obvious as advocates of helicopter drops would like, but provides more stimulus than is recognised.

在政策利率似乎已经触及下限之际，市场期望出台更多财政举措是可以理解的，经济分析也支持这种观点。人们往往在某种程度上忽视的是，货币和财政政策已经在相互加强效果。或许这些效果并不像“直升机撒钱”的拥护者所希望的那么明显，但是它们带来的刺激效果要超过普遍认知。

The hyper-expansionary monetary policy measures introduced in Japan and the euro area — where base money is expanding by the equivalent of 2.5-3.0 per cent of annual nominal GDP every quarter — have both international ramifications and fiscal dimensions.

日本和欧元区引入的高度扩张性的货币政策措施（每个季度增加的基础货币供应相当于年度名义国内生产总值(GDP)的2.5%至3.0%）具有潜在的国际影响，对财政方面也有影响。

First, while QE is depressing long-term rates in these two regions (where more than 75 per cent of bills and bonds have negative yield to maturity), this effect is also evident in other advanced economies. Unlike for currencies, where the depreciation of one results in the appreciation of another, the effects of QE through bond markets are a positive sum game, easing financial conditions across the board.

首先，量化宽松(QE)在抑制这两个地区长期利率（超过75%的短期和长期国债的到期收益率为负）的同时，对其他发达经济体的影响也是显而易见的。与汇率不同（一种货币贬值必然意味着其他货币升值），QE在债券市场传递的效应是一种正和游戏，全面缓解金融状况。

Second, central banks’ purchases of longer-maturity bonds are also promoting issuance at longer maturities, which lets treasuries lock in lower funding costs for longer.

其次，央行购买较长期债券还正在推动较长期债券的发行，使得国债锁定更长期的较低融资成本。

All else equal, lower interest bills allow governments to run larger deficits net of interest payments without incurring a “crowding out” of private sector borrowing. The purchase of government bonds by the ECB and the BoJ in the secondary market is now equivalent to more than three times the respective government shortfalls.

在其它条件都不变的情况下，较低的利息账单使政府可以运行较大的赤字（刨除利息支付后），同时不至于排挤私营部门的借款。如今欧洲央行和日本央行在二级市场购买政府债券的规模相当于各自政府赤字的3倍以上。

At Goldman Sachs, we forecast that discretionary countercyclical fiscal policies in the euro area and Japan will contribute up to 50bp to real GDP growth this year in both .

在高盛(Goldman Sachs)内部，我们预计欧元区和日本自由裁量的反周期财政政策将对各自今年实际GDP增长贡献50个基点。

Third, central banks have said that both the principal and coupons of the securities that end up on their balance sheets will be reinvested until nominal policy rates are “normalised” (assumed to be 2 per cent). Going by the current forward rates, this entails that the money supply created through the purchase of government debt will not be unwound for at least another decade. This means that over the corresponding horizon a lot of public debt (up to 25-30 per cent) will neither need to be rolled over, nor de facto pay interest outside the consolidated government sector.

第三，各大央行称，在名义政策利率“正常化”（被假定为2%）之前，其资产负债表上证券的本金和票息都将用于再投资。按照目前的远期利率，这意味着通过购买政府债券创建的货币供应至少在10年内不会抽回。这进而意味着，在相应时期内，大量公共债务（多达25%-30%）既不需要滚转，也不需要在合并政府部门以外支付利息。

Our view is that the combined effect of existing stimulative policies will continue to support job creation and a progressive acceleration in retail price inflation. These dynamics are evident in the service price categories and present an opportunity for investors to be long inflation-linked securities. Stepping up the monetary and fiscal/structural response, and smartening their interaction, would be welcome steps. One could envisage, for example, central banks buying ultra-long-dated securities issued by national or supranational entities to fund projects with long-term payouts (in human capital or physical capital areas such as education or infrastructure). Or schemes where central bank funding can help in the recapitalisation of banks as they offload non-performing loans.

我们的观点是，现有刺激政策的结合效应将继续支撑就业创造以及零售价格通胀逐渐加速。这种势头明显体现在服务价格类别上，同时给投资者带来了做多通胀挂钩证券的机会。加大货币政策和财政政策/结构上的回应力度、并优化政策之间的相互作用，将是可喜的步骤。例如，人们可以设想央行购买由国家或超国家实体发行的超长期证券，资助带来长期回报（在人力资本或物质资本领域，如教育或基础设施等）的项目。或者由央行资金帮助银行进行资本重组的计划（让那些银行剥离不良贷款）。

Making the full transition to an explicit monetisation of government spending (the helicopter drop) would have an even more powerful effect on the public’s expectations. But the risk that this could be destabilising for markets should not be underestimated. Once the fiscal authority has direct access to the printing press, the temptation to continue using it could prove too hard to resist.

将政府支出明确货币化（直升机撒钱）会对公众预期产生更强烈的影响。但是不应该低估这么做给市场带来不稳定的风险。一旦财政主管部门可以直接掌控印钞机，继续使用印钞机的诱惑可能无法抵御。