全球产油国拟达成冻结产量协议 Saudis to freeze oil output without Iran

Saudi Arabia is prepared to sign up to an oil output freeze next month even without Iran taking part, a senior Opec delegate said, paving the way for a deal among big producers.

一名资深欧佩克(OPEC)代表称，即使伊朗不参与，沙特阿拉伯也准备在下月接受冻结石油产量的方案，此举为各大产油国之间达成协议铺平了道路。

Some of the world’s largest oil players will meet in Doha on April 17 to discuss restraining output. It follows a provisional agreement reached in February by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela to freeze production at January levels.

世界上一些最大的产油国将于4月17日在多哈开会，讨论限制产量。此前沙特、俄罗斯、卡塔尔和委内瑞拉在2月曾达成将产量冻结在1月份水平的临时协议。

“There is agreement from many countries to go along with a freeze, why make it contingent on Iran,” said the delegate. The comments contrast with those from Gulf officials last month which suggested any deal was conditional on Iran, Saudi Arabia’s Opec rival, taking part alongside other big producer countries.

“在许多国家愿意接受冻结的情况下，为什么要让一切取决于伊朗呢？”这名代表说。此番言论与海湾国家官员上月所说的话形成反差，当时他们暗示，任何协议都将取决于伊朗——沙特在欧佩克内部的对手——加入其它大型产油国的行列，参与产量冻结。

Iran has sought to increase production and exports after the lifting of sanctions against its oil industry in January. Iranian officials have shown no willingness to back any deal that would result in restricting its own output.

针对伊朗石油业的制裁在1月份解除后，伊朗一直在努力提高产量和出口。伊朗官员迄今没有表现出迹象表明，他们会愿意支持将导致该国限制产量的任何协议。

Questions have been raised among Gulf delegates about the country’s ability to ramp up output, suggesting this could be one reason for compliance even without Iran.

海湾国家的不止一名代表曾质疑伊朗真有增产的能力，似乎表明这可能是各方即使没有伊朗也愿意合作的一个原因。

“Despite all the bragging, we have yet to see what Iran can do,” said the delegate.

“尽管吹了很多牛，但我们还看不出伊朗可以做什么，”上述代表说。

Abdalla El-Badri, Opec’s secretary-general, said at a news conference in Vienna on Monday: “Maybe in the future they will join the group. They [Iran] have some conditions about their production.”

欧佩克秘书长阿卜杜拉•巴德里(Abdalla El-Badri)周一在维也纳举行的一个记者会上表示：“也许在将来，他们将加入集体的行列。他们（伊朗）对于自己的产量有一定条件。”

About 15 Opec and non-Opec countries — accounting for two-thirds of global oil output — have so far supported an oil freeze, Qatar’s energy minister Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada said last week.

卡塔尔能源大臣穆罕默德•本•萨利赫•萨达(Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada)上周表示，迄今已有大约15个欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国——占全球石油产量的三分之二—— 支持冻结石油产量。

A provisional deal has helped to support prices and reverse negative market sentiment towards oil. Brent crude was at $41.72 yesterday afternoon, up 54 per cent since hitting a 2016 intraday low of $27.10 a barrel in January.

临时协议已经起到了帮助支撑价格、扭转市场对石油的负面情绪的作用。昨日下午布伦特(Brent)原油价格为每桶41.72美元，比1月份触及的每桶27.10 美元的2016年日内低点高出54%。

“Look at what it [the move towards the oil freeze] did to change the psyche of the market,” said the delegate. “Now the market can see people are gathering, people are communicating. This collaborative element has helped the price.”

“看看（为冻结石油产量而付出的努力）在改变市场心理方面收到的效果吧，”上述代表说，“现在市场可以看到各方在开会，各方在沟通。这种合作元素支撑了价格。”

Hedge funds and other speculators have increased their bets on a higher oil price in the past few weeks. Their combined net long positions in Nymex and ICE WTI are now at 172m barrels, from just 35m barrels on January 12.

对冲基金和其他投机者在过去几周加大了对油价上涨的赌注。他们在纽约商品交易所(Nymex)和洲际交易所(ICE)西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的净多头头寸共计达到1.72亿桶，而1月12日只有3500万桶。