全球石油市场失控 Oil market slides out of control

For most of the Age of Oil, groups of producers have tried to control its price. From the 1920s, that strategy was co-ordinated by the Railroad Commission of Texas, supported by other US states and federal authorities. Then from the 1970s it was Opec, the producing countries’ cartel.

石油时代的大部分时期，石油生产国组织都在试图控制油价。上世纪20年代，德克萨斯州铁路委员会(Texas Railroad Commission)开始这样做，并获得美国其他州和联邦当局的支持。到上世纪70年代，石油生产国成立了石油输出国组织（Opec，简称欧佩克）来控制油价。

The plunge in the price of crude since the summer of 2014 has made it clear that the market has escaped anyone’s ability to control it.

自2014年夏季以来，原油价格暴跌，表明原油市场已没有人能控制得住了。

A combination of technological progress, in the shape of the spectacular success of US shale oil production over the past five years, worries about the slowdown in China and other emerging economies, and a shift in strategy by Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has caused a global glut of oil that sent prices tumbling by more than 50 per cent.

以过去5年美国页岩油生产的巨大成功为代表的技术进步、对中国和其他新兴经济体经济放缓的担忧，以及全球最大石油生产国沙特改变策略，这些因素共同导致全球石油供应过剩，从而使得油价暴跌逾50%。

For now, at least, prices are being driven more by market forces than by political decisions and it is an unnerving experience for everyone concerned, from the boardrooms of Houston to the palaces of Riyadh. It is not, however, wholly unprecedented.

至少就目前而言，影响油价的是市场力量、而非政治决定。从休斯顿那些大型油企的董事会、到利雅得的宫殿里，油价暴跌让所有相关方焦躁不安。然而，这并非完全没有先例。

In the words that are apocryphally attributed to Mark Twain, “history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. So, while there are no exact precedents for today’s markets, the past can provide some clues to the future.

据说马克吐温(Mark Twain)曾说过：“历史不会重演,但总会惊人地相似。”因此，尽管当今市场状况没有一模一样的先例，但过去也能给未来提供一些线索。

The most recent oil price collapse came just seven years ago. The downfall of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the subsequent financial crisis toppled crude prices from a higher peak than in 2014 to its lowest trough. That episode turned out to be shortlived. Having dropped below $37 per barrel in December 2008, internationally traded benchmark Brent crude was back above $70 by June 2009.

最近一次油价暴跌就发生在7年前。2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭以及随后的金融危机，使得油价从比2014年价格还要高的峰值跌至最低点。事实证明这种下跌是短暂的。在2008年12月跌至每桶37美元下方之后，国际基准油价布伦特(Brent)原油价格到2009年6月重返70美元上方。

On the demand side, 2015 looks quite like 2009. Six years ago, the swift resumption of strong growth in China, after a brief wobble in late 2008 and early 2009, provided important support to prices. This year, similarly, growth in China’s oil demand has been strong, though forecasters expect it to slow. It is the supply side that is different.

从需求方面来说，2015年看起来和2009年非常相像。6年前，在2008年末和2009年初短暂下跌之后，中国很快恢复强劲增长，这为油价提供了重要支撑。今年同样如此，中国对石油的需求一直强劲，尽管预测机构预计其需求将会放缓。供应方面则有所不同。

In 2008, there was decisive action by Opec, which cut its agreed output by 4.2m barrels per day in three steps from September to December, culminating in the largest single reduction in its history that helped stabilise prices.

2008年，欧佩克采取果断举措，从9月到12月分三步实现日减产420万桶，直至创出历史上最大幅度的单日减产，这帮助稳定了油价。

The cartel’s ability to control oil markets is often exaggerated, but it is clear that its intervention in 2008 had a very significant impact. When its ministers met in Vienna on November 27 last year, as the latest price slide was in full swing, they suggested their influence had reached its limits.

欧佩克控制石油市场的能力往往被夸大，但它在2008年的干预显然作用显著。在去年11月27日于维也纳举行的欧佩克部长级会议上——当时正是本轮油价下跌最厉害之时——部长们表示欧佩克的影响力已经达到极限。

Their decision to leave their official production level unchanged set the seal on a policy that had already been signalled for months by Saudi Arabia, the group’s most influential member. As Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, explained later in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey, a cut in Opec production, meaning principally Saudi production, would have merely allowed more “marginal barrels” from US shale and other higher-cost sources to fill the gap.

会议让官方产量水平保持不变的决定，确认了该集团最具影响力的成员国沙特数月以来一直在暗示的政策。正如沙特石油部长阿里纳伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)后来在接受《中东经济调察》(Middle East Economic Survey)采访时解释的那样，欧佩克减产（主要是沙特减产）只会让来自美国页岩和其他高成本资源的更多“边际供应”来填补缺口。

The clearest precedent for Mr Naimi’s strategy of turning on the taps is the policy adopted by Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, his famous predecessor, who boosted production in 1985-86 after cutting back over the previous half-decade to support prices. Crude plunged in 1986 and the world entered a period of low prices that stretched into the 2000s.

纳伊米“打开输油龙头”策略的最明显先例，是著名的沙特前石油部长谢赫縠哈迈德丠基騠汎尼(Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani)曾经推行的政策，后者在为支撑价格减产5年之后，于1985年至1986年间下令提高石油产量。1986年原油价格暴跌，全球进入了一直持续到2000年代的低油价时代。

Another parallel with today was the preceding surge in non-Opec production. The equivalent of this decade’s shale boom was the opening of two important new oil provinces: the North Sea and Alaska.

另一个与当前有些相像的例子是当年非欧佩克石油生产国产量的飙升。当时，北海和阿拉斯加这两个新的重要石油产地开始产油，其效果无异于本十年这场页岩繁荣。

The development of those areas, which were relatively high-cost compared to oilfields in the Middle East, was made possible by Opec moves that forced up the price of oil in the 1970s, just as shale was made viable by the high prices of the first half of the 2010s.

与中东油田相比，那两个地区的油田开采成本相对较高。欧佩克上世纪70年代推升油价的举措，使得开发那里的石油成为可能，这和2010年代头5年的高油价让页岩油开发成为可能一样。

Although low prices hit investment, prompting cost-cutting from western oil companies including the mega-merger wave at the end of the 1990s, production took a long time to respond. The UK, Norway and Alaska continued to produce in large volumes through the turn of the century.

尽管低油价打击投资，促使西方石油公司削减成本，包括出现上世纪90年代末的并购潮，但生产花了很长时间才做出回应。英国、挪威和阿拉斯加在本世纪之交继续大规模开采石油。

Eventually, though, as those regions went into decline, and demand from China and other emerging economies began to grow strongly, the stage was set for the steep rise in prices of the 2000s. The question today is how quickly a similar adjustment of supply will materialise. At the beginning of this year, many expected that the US shale industry would head quickly into a downturn.

然而，随着那些地区产量步入下降通道，中国和其他新兴经济体的需求也开始强劲增长，最终为2000年代油价大幅上涨创造了条件。今天的问题是，供应方面会多快实现类似调整。在今年年初，许多人预计，美国页岩行业将会很快陷入低迷。

So far, it has not turned out like that. Production companies have been able to squeeze out further efficiency gains and cut the prices they pay suppliers. They have also been “high-grading” their operations: focusing on the most productive areas. US production has proved more resilient than some had expected.

该行业迄今并未陷入低迷。生产公司能够通过提高效率进一步挤出一些收益并压低付给供应商的价格。他们也一直在“掐尖儿”生产：主要开发产油量最高的地区。事实证明，美国生产的弹性超过一些人的预期。

However Trisha Curtis, of the Washington-based Energy Policy Research Foundation, says oil at under $50 is causing “quite serious” problems for the industry. Blithe assertions that everything seems fine ignore the fact that there is always a lag before production reflects the number of rigs drilling for oil, which has dropped 63 per cent in the past year. “It’s going to take a while,” says Ms Curtis. The shale industry is not dying, she adds, but it may be going “into hibernation”.

然而，华盛顿能源政策研究基金会(Energy Policy Research Foundation)的特丽莎柯蒂斯(Trisha Curtis)表示，油价跌至50美元下方正对页岩行业造成“非常严重的”问题。乐观地断言“似乎一切都好”忽视了如下事实，即石油钻井平台的数量总是要过一段时间才会反映到产量上——石油钻井平台在过去一年里减少了63%。柯蒂斯表示：“会滞后一段时间。”她补充称，页岩行业没有在走向死亡，但可能会进入“冬眠”。

In other oil-producing regions, where project developments are typically multiyear and multibillion-dollar commitments, production will be slower to react to the fall in price of crude.

在项目开发通常需要数年时间和数十亿美元投资承诺的其他石油生产地区，生产对油价下跌的反应将会更慢。

Philip Verleger, an energy economist, suggests Venezuela, a leading oil producer now in the grip of a severe financial crisis, could crack first, with mounting chaos in the country putting its entire 2.4m b/d of production at risk.

能源经济学家菲利普弗莱杰(Philip Verleger)表示，处于严重金融危机中的主要石油生产国委内瑞拉可能首先崩溃，该国日益升级的骚乱让其240万桶的日产量可能整个不保。

For those reasons, while the oil market will for a while be weighed down by near-term pressures, including the prospect of additional Iranian supply, the longer-term price trend still seems likely to be upwards, with the potential for spikes if crises erupt in Venezuela or elsewhere. Edward Morse, analyst at Citigroup, suggests a range of $60-$80 per barrel would bring supply and demand back into balance.

出于上述原因，尽管石油市场暂时将会因短期压力（包括伊朗可能额外供应一些石油）而承压，但更长期的价格趋势似乎仍可能是上行的，如果委内瑞拉或其他地方爆发危机，油价还有可能大幅飙升。花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师爱德华莫尔斯(Edward Morse)表示， 60美元/桶至80美元/桶之间的油价将会让供需重新实现平衡。

The idea that supplies of fossil fuels will grow ever tighter as demand increases, pushing prices inexorably higher, has been put on ice, perhaps forever. The lesson of the past decade is that so long as the right technology, capital and legal frameworks are in place, oil and gas will flow. If the world is to shift away from fossil fuels, therefore, governments will need to take deliberate policy actions to make that happen.

化石燃料供应将会随着需求增长而日益紧张、从而推动价格大大提高的观点已经降温，或许是永远降温了。过去十年的教训在于，只要合适的技术、资本和法律框架到位，石油和天然气将会源源不断地被生产出来。因此，如果世界想要不再使用化石燃料，各国政府将需要采取刻意朝这个方向引导的政策措施。