油价只会有限反弹 A pact that cannot stop the flow of cheap oil

The conditional agreement to hold oil production steady announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia on Tuesday was a triumph of the art of diplomacy, delivering the maximum rhetorical impact for the minimum genuine commitment. Its careful construction tells you everything you need to know about today’s oil market.

周二，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯宣布的冻结石油产量的有条件协议，是外交艺术的胜利，以最低限度的真实承诺换取了最大限度的舆论效果。该协议的精心构建，告诉了你关于当今石油市场需要了解的一切。

Co-ordinating oil producers to manipulate prices has never been easy, and has been effective only for limited periods, most spectacularly in the 1970s. Since the emergence of US shale oil in the past seven years, it has become just about impossible.

产油国之间通过协调来操纵油价从来都不容易，而且效果也只能维持有限的时间——这在1970年代表现得最为明显。自从美国页岩油在过去7年里崛起以来，这已变得根本不可能。

The semi-tough position agreed by Saudi Arabia and Russia may not amount to very much. Oil prices fell sharply in the aftermath of the announcement, although they later rebounded. But in the circumstances, it was the best both countries could have done.

沙特和俄罗斯之间达成的半强硬立场，或许不会起到太大作用。消息传出后，油价大幅下跌，不过后来有所反弹。但在当前情况下，这已是两国所能采取的最理想措施了。

The deal will not take a single barrel of oil off the market to ease the glut that has driven crude prices down about 70 per cent since the summer of 2014. Even the agreement not to increase output depends on other leading producers signing up. On Wednesday, Iran, which plans to increase its production, did not commit to joining the freeze.

该协议将不会令市场供应减少一桶，不会缓解石油供应过剩的局面。自2014年夏季以来，供应过剩已推动原油价格下跌了约70%。即使是这份不增加产量的协议，也有赖于其他主要产油国的加入。周三，打算增加本国产量的伊朗，并未承诺加入产量冻结阵营。

Even such a weak agreement — the first between a member and a non-member of Opec for 15 years — is significant as a sign of nervousness among the world’s two largest oil producers. But the fact that Saudi Arabia is not already cutting its output, in spite of mounting signs of financial strain, shows that while its strategy might be painful, it is still rational.

即便这样一份较弱的协议——15年来第一份欧佩克(Opec)成员国和非成员国之间的协议——也具有重大的意义，它表明全球两大产油国心里感到紧张。但是，尽管财政压力加大的迹象日益明显，沙特也尚未开始减产。这表明，沙特的战略或许是痛苦的，但该国仍是理智的。

Crude prices at today’s levels are playing havoc with Saudi Arabia’s competitors. Very few large oil projects are expected to go ahead this year, putting a lasting dent in future supplies. The opening up of the Arctic for oil development has been put on hold indefinitely. US shale oil production has remained resilient, but it is falling now, and the industry is about to be hit by a wave of bankruptcies of over-indebted producers. If Saudi Arabia were to cut production now, it might benefit from higher prices, but would also offer relief to its rivals. It is in the kingdom’s interests to continue to stay the course.

当前的原油价格水平给沙特的竞争对手造成了巨大伤害。预计今年将启动不了几个大型石油项目，这将对未来的供应产生持久的影响。开放北极地区的石油开采已被无限期地搁置。美国页岩油产量仍保持强劲，但如今开始下降，该行业即将受到负债过高企业的一波破产浪潮的冲击。如果沙特现在减产，或许会受益于高油价，但也将为竞争对手提供喘息之机。维持目前的产量是符合沙特利益的。

Over time, the drop-off in supply resulting from reduced investment worldwide will bring the market back into balance, so long as demand keeps growing. The price will rebound. Oil at about $30 is unsustainably low.

随着时间的推移，只要需求保持增长，全球范围内投资降低导致的供应减少，将让市场回到平衡状态。油价将发生反弹。每桶30美元左右的低油价是不可持续的。

The fundamental problem facing Saudi Arabia, however, is that the extent of the recovery is likely to be limited. Once crude rises much above $50, there will be substantial volumes of US shale production that will look commercially attractive again, bringing extra supply on to the market. Any attempt to hold prices much above that level would probably be fruitless.

然而，沙特面临的根本问题在于，油价的反弹程度可能是有限的。一旦原油价格高出每桶50美元很多，大量的美国页岩油将再度具备生产上的商业吸引力，为市场带来更多供应。任何把油价支撑在远远高于每桶50美元的努力，很可能都将是徒劳的。

Producers have to adjust to a world in which, barring some great political upheaval, we will not see $100 oil again for some time. Companies need to be leaner and fitter; countries need reform to cope with oil revenues that will be lower for many years to come.

产油国必须适应这个世界，除非发生严重政治动荡，否则我们在一段时间内将看不到油价再度回到每桶100美元。生产商需要变得更精干、更灵活；产油国需要进行改革，以应对未来多年石油收入降低的局面。

The US shale revolution heralds a structural transformation in the productivity of the oil industry, and like any other such advance, it is a net benefit to the world economy. This is sometimes under-appreciated, because the gains are widely spread among all consumers while the pain is concentrated on a smaller number of producers. Overall, however, cheap oil is a stimulus to growth.

美国页岩革命预示着石油行业生产率将发生结构性转变，并且像其他任何此类进步一样，会给世界经济带来净收益。有时，这一点被低估了，因为收益由所有消费者广泛分享，而痛苦则集中由较少数量的生产者来承担。然而，总体上看，低油价对经济增长是一种刺激。

We are in a world where co-operation between Saudi Arabia and Russia elicits a yawn and not a shudder. Across most of the rest of the globe, that is surely a cause for celebration.

在我们当前所处的世界，沙特和俄罗斯之间的合作消息，让人感到乏味而不是害怕。在全球多数其他地区，这肯定都是值得庆祝的。