中国外汇储备9月缩水430亿美元

China’s foreign exchange reserves fell another $43bn last month, suggesting continued intervention in the forex markets to support the renminbi.

上月中国外汇储备下降430亿美元，似乎表明中国当局为支撑人民币而继续干预汇市。

However, the pace of capital outflow slowed compared with August, when reserves fell $94bn, the sharpest monthly fall on record, as the People’s Bank of China sold down some of its formidable stockpile to support its currency after the August 11 devaluation.

然而，相比外汇储备下降940亿美元的8月份（中国外汇储备有记录以来降幅最大的一个月），资本外流的节奏有所放缓。8月11日人民币贬值后，中国央行出售其令人生畏的外汇储备中的一部分，以支撑人民币汇率。

“The figure shows capital outflow continued but more slowly than last month,” said Ding Shuang, head of greater China economic research at Standard Chartered. “The government is trying to reassure the market that a large-scale renminbi devaluation won’t happen not only through words but also by action. We expect the intervention will generally slow down in the following months.”

“该数据表明，资本继续外流，但是较8月有所放缓，”渣打银行(Standard Chartered)大中华区经济研究部主管丁爽称，“政府正试图通过言行向市场保证：人民币大规模贬值不会发生。我们预计未来数月干预总体上将逐步放慢。”

The country’s forex reserves now stand at $3.514tn, the lowest since July 2013. Reserves have fallen by an average $36.5bn a month this year, with April the only month they grew.

中国的外汇储备如今为3.514万亿美元，这是自2013年7月以来的最低水平。今年以来，中国外汇储备平均每个月下降365亿美元，4月份是唯一有所增长的月份。

Analysts on Wednesday said actual outflows could be worse than the headline figure suggests.

分析师们周三表示，实际的资本外流情况可能比整体数据所表明的更糟。

“As the PBoC also intervened in the forward market in the past month, the foreign reserves will likely plunge again when these forward contracts mature,” said Zhou Hao, senior emerging market economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. “In addition, Chinese residents will likely purchase a large amount of foreign currency in October to repay credit card bills, as overseas travel hit a new record during the October Golden Week holidays.”

“由于中国央行在过去一个月还干预了远期外汇市场，当这些远期合约到期时，外汇储备很可能将再次大幅下降，”德国商业银行(Commerzbank AG)驻新加坡的新兴市场高级经济学家周浩称，“另外，由于十一黄金周假期的海外旅游人数创下新纪录，10月中国居民很可能将购买大量外汇来偿还信用卡账单。”

Ahead of the week-long holiday, which ends on Wednesday, state media forecast that the number of mainlanders taking overseas trips this year — and potentially needing to settle bills with foreign currency — would rise 11 per cent to 4m against the same time last year.

在一周长假于周三结束之前，官方媒体预测，今年中国大陆赴海外旅游的人数——他们可能需要用外币结算信用卡账单——同比将增加11%，至400万人。

The PBoC in August devalued the renminbi and switched to a more market-oriented exchange rate regime, prompting a 2.6 per cent decline in the currency that month.

今年8月，中国央行(PBoC)调低了人民币汇率，并改用一种在更大程度上以市场为导向的汇率形成机制，导致当月人民币汇率下降了2.6%。

The central bank has been intervening in both the onshore and offshore markets to prevent the renminbi from falling too steeply, a strategy that drains reserves.

中国央行在境内和离岸两个市场实施干预，以阻止人民币贬值过度，这一战略消耗了外汇储备。

Driven by large trade surpluses, China’s reserves peaked at almost $4tn in June 2014. A fall of 12 per cent since then still leaves China with considerable firepower to prop up its currency.

在高额贸易顺差的驱动下，中国外汇储备于2014年6月达到近4万亿美元的最高点。虽然外汇储备自那以来减少了12%，但中国仍有强大的火力支撑人民币汇率。