中国1月资本外流逾1100亿美元

Chinese companies and residents sent more than $110bn out of the country in January alone, according to new estimates, as they continued to evade tightening capital controls amid another round of market turmoil.

根据最新估算，单单今年1月，中国企业和居民就向国外转移资金逾1100亿美元，在又一轮市场动荡之际，他们继续摆脱日益收紧的资本管制。

Surging capital outflows from China have become a source of growing concern around the world and left Beijing scrambling to support its currency. Recently-released data showed the country’s foreign exchange reserves falling to their lowest level in almost four years in January.

从中国流出的资金日益飙升，已成为全球日益担忧的一个源头，并迫使中国匆忙采取措施支持其货币。最近公布的数据显示，今年1月，中国外汇储备降至近4年来最低。

In the first significant attempt to digest the capital flight amid January’s market turmoil in China, the Institute for International Finance estimated that $113bn had been sent out of the country in the month.

国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)估计，今年1月中国有1130亿美元资金流出，这是梳理今年1月市场动荡之际中国资金外流规模的首次重大尝试。

That was more than in any month bar two in 2015, when it estimated a total of $637bn left China, down slightly from the estimate of $676bn it released last month. It also marked the 22nd month in a row of net outflows.

这一规模超过了2015年除两个月之外的所有月份，当时该协会估计，2015年共有6370亿美元资金流出中国，略低于上月公布的6760亿美元估值。这也是连续第22个月录得净流出。

The IIF is a Washington-based industry group that represents banks and insurers around the world. Its estimates are based on extrapolations from official Chinese data and it cautioned that its January figures amounted to only “an approximation of the magnitude of capital flows”.

国际金融协会是一个总部位于华盛顿的行业组织，代表全球银行和保险公司。该协会估值基于对中国官方数据的推算，该协会警告称，1月数据只是“资金流动规模的近似值”。

But the IIF’s figures shine a light on the extent of capital flight as they endeavour to capture funds leaving the country through unofficial channels, such as over-invoicing for exports and other methods used to circumvent official capital controls.

然而，国际金融协会的数据让外界了解了资金外流的规模，包括通过非官方渠道流出的资金，例如虚开贸易发票以及其他用来绕过官方资本管制的方法。

“If anything, it looks too low,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, senior market strategist at RBS in Singapore, referring to the IIF’s estimate for January. “With FX reserves falling at $100bn a month it appears increasingly likely the central bank will allow the [renminbi] to slide lower again towards 7.00 against the dollar.”

常驻新加坡的苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)市场策略师曼苏尔莫希-乌丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)在谈到国际金融协会的1月估算时表示：“如果说有什么不准确的话，那就是它看上去偏低了。中国外汇储备正以每月1000亿美元的速度减少，央行似乎越来越有可能允许（人民币汇率）再次跌向7元人民币兑1美元的水平。”

The IIF’s economists said that, based on recently-released official reserve data, they estimated that the Chinese government had spent $90bn intervening to prop up its currency in January.

国际金融协会的经济学家表示，根据最近公布的官方外汇储备数据，他们估计，今年1月，中国政府已动用900亿美元展开外汇干预，以支撑人民币汇率。

Those interventions by the People’s Bank of China represented more than a quarter of the $342bn it spent in all of last year in response to outflows, the IIF said.

该协会表示，中国央行(PBoC)的这些干预代表着它已动用去年全年干预总规模（3420亿美元）的逾四分之一。

However, Beijing remains reluctant to appear to crack down too much on capital outflows, said Zhou Hao, senior economist for Asia at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. Tightening “could have a negative impact on people’s mindset. It could encourage more capital outflows because people would think something is wrong.”

然而，德国商业银行(Commerzbank)驻新加坡亚洲高级经济学家周浩表示，中国似乎仍不愿过分打击资金流出。收紧管制“可能会对人们的心理造成负面影响。这可能会鼓励更多资金流出，因为人们会认为有些事情不对头。”