中国对全球经济的冲击波 The global economy and the fallout from China

What was supposed to be a routine meeting this weekend for the Group of 20 large economies has become more serious. The central bankers and finance ministers meeting in Ankara have watched in alarm as the rout in Chinese stock markets has driven down asset prices and emerging market currencies across the world.

本周末20国集团(G20)大型经济体举行的一个原本例行公事的会议已变得更加事关重大。汇聚土耳其安卡拉开会的各国央行行长和财长，已震惊地目睹了中国股市大跌压低了全球资产价格和新兴市场货币汇率。

There has been little consensus about how to respond. The apparatus of International policy co-ordination, including the G20 itself, is somewhere between feeble and non-existent. Still, there is room for central banks and finance ministries to offset the shock emanating from China and the commodity markets.

在怎么回应的问题上，各方几乎毫无共识。国际政策协调机制，包括G20本身，介于软弱无力和形同虚设之间。话虽如此，各国央行和财政部有一些空间来抵消中国和大宗商品市场发出的冲击波。

The International Monetary Fund, continuing its historically unusual role as dove-in-chief, chimed in this week with a warning that the world’s leading central banks should avoid raising interest rates, given the increasing risks to growth. The fund is most likely right. Employment data released on Friday continued the trend of steady growth in US output and jobs, but inflation and inflation expectations remain quiescent. Such conditions argue for the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold later this month.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)继续扮演“首席鸽派”这一在历史上不寻常的角色。本周该组织加入讨论，警告称，鉴于经济增长面临的风险不断增加，世界主要国家的央行应当避免升息。该组织极有可能是正确的。周五发布的数据显示，美国保持了产出和就业双双稳步增长的趋势，但通胀和通胀预期都继续毫无动静。这样的状况说明，美联储(Federal Reserve)本月晚些时候应当维持利率不变。

In the eurozone, the European Central Bank’s next move is more likely to be loosening rather than tightening. On Thursday, it cut its inflation and growth forecasts and warned that it might extend quantitative easing if growth threatened to weaken.

在欧元区，欧洲央行(ECB)的下一步动作更有可能是放松，而不是收紧。周四，它下调了通胀和经济增长预期，并警告称，如果增长面临减弱威胁，它可能会延长量化宽松政策。

Still, the policy challenges faced by the US and Europe are straightforward compared to those in emerging economies. The sell-off in their currencies since the middle of the year was given more fuel by China’s hurried decision last month to let the renminbi fall.

话说回来，比起新兴经济体，美国和欧洲面临的政策挑战是直截了当的。自年中开始遭到抛售的新兴市场货币，因上月中国仓促决定让人民币贬值而进一步受压。

Although the falls in exchange rates are alarming many policymakers, they are often part of a necessary adjustment. For commodity producers, a flexible exchange rate helps offset the domestic impact of a fall in dollar-denominated raw materials prices. It is true that the depreciations have not led to a boom in exports. But to the extent that they reflect a fall in export demand due to weakness in the global economy and particularly China, they will help to cushion the blow.

虽然汇率走低让许多政策制定者震惊，但它们往往是必要调整的一部分。对于大宗商品生产国，灵活汇率有助于抵消以美元计价的原材料价格下降的国内影响。没错，货币贬值并未带来出口繁荣。但是，就贬值反映了出口需求因全球经济（尤其是中国）疲弱而下降而言，它们将有助于缓解冲击。

Of course, the ability of those economies to benefit from a weaker currency depends on their own policy apparatus. For countries like, say, Colombia, with a sound fiscal framework, stable inflation and a credible central bank, a huge depreciation has not meant offsetting rises in interest rates. Conversely, for high-inflation economies like Brazil and Turkey, where loose fiscal policy overheated their economies and forced monetary tightening to compensate, sliding currencies have added to their problems not ameliorated them.

当然，这些经济体获益于货币贬值的能力取决于它们自己的政策机制。对于某些具有稳健财政框架、稳定通胀和可信央行的国家（比如说哥伦比亚），大幅贬值并未意味着抵消性上调利率。相反，对于高通胀的经济体，如巴西和土耳其（这些国家此前宽松的财政政策导致经济过热，迫使货币政策收紧作为补偿），本币贬值加剧了他们的问题，而不是缓解了问题。

Although they have raised fears of a new currency war, few of the depreciations seen so far could be called deliberate competitive devaluations. Nor should such accusations be resurrected if those emerging market central banks with room to move loosen domestic monetary policy. Easing fiscal stances is also an option for some.

虽然货币贬值引发了人们对于爆发新一轮汇率战的担忧，但迄今出现的贬值基本上都不能被称为蓄意的竞争性贬值。这些新兴市场的央行在有回旋余地的情况下如果放松国内的货币政策，也不应该受到这样的指责。对某些国家来说，放松财政政策也是一个选项。

The world’s central banks and finance ministers cannot and should not try to counter the impact of China’s equity market falls on their own domestic asset prices or exchange rates. But China is a sufficiently large economy, particularly in its demand for commodities, that policymakers must be alert for weakening growth and lower inflationary pressure.

世界各国的央行和财长不能（也不应该）试图抵消中国股市下跌对他们的国内资产价格或汇率产生的影响。但中国是一个足够大的经济体，尤其是就其对大宗商品的需求而言，因此政策制定者必须警惕增长减弱和通胀压力降低的风险。

The IMF is right that the world economy is at a dangerous and uncertain moment. Policymakers should err on the side of cushioning the shock rather than carrying on with policies designed for more optimistic times.

国际货币基金组织说得对：世界经济正处于一个危险而不确定的时刻。政策制定者应该宁可过度缓冲震荡，也不要继续推行面向更为乐观时期的政策。