H股值得拥有 Hong Kong shares smoother seas

Navigating Chinese stock markets? Pack motion-sickness pills. Intraday swings of more than 5 per cent have become common; in the past two months, mainland indices have had intraday movements of more than10 per cent three times. Chinese authorities have been stepping in to prop up shares. One can only assume this is making the turbulence worse.

涉足中国股市？最好带上治晕药丸。盘中振幅超过5%已成为常态；过去两个月里，中国内地股指的盘中振幅已有3次高于10%。中国当局近期在出手救市。人们可以推断，这样只会加剧股市的动荡。

State protection, if that is the word, has not extended to the Hong Kong bourse. Shares there have trickled persistently lower, without the churning volatility. Shanghai’s composite index is still up nearly a fifth this year. Hong Kong-listed Chinese ‘H’ shares are down more than 10 per cent.

国家护盘——如果这么表述确切的话——并未延伸到香港股市。香港的股价一点一点地持续下挫，不像内地股市波动那么厉害。今年迄今，上证综指(Shanghai composite index)涨幅仍接近五分之一。H股（在港上市内地企业）的价格则下降了逾10%。

For the nearly 70 companies listed in both Hong Kong and China — names such as China Construction Bank, China Railway Group and Tsingtao Brewery — the Hong Kong H line is on average 24 per cent cheaper than the same ‘A’ share bought in China. That is less than July’s one-third discount, but well above the five-year average.

对于中国建行(CCB)、中铁股份有限公司(China Railway Group)以及青岛啤酒(Tsingtao Brewery)等近70家中港两地上市企业而言，H股价格平均比A股便宜24%。这个数字低于今年7月三分之一的折价幅度，但仍远高于五年平均值。

Global investors access Chinese shares through Hong Kong because of restrictions on mainland investment. So H shares’ underperformance reflects how outsiders’ fears about China’s economic slowdown outweigh both the residual hopes of Chinese punters and state intervention. Yet many H shares are also cheap in absolute terms. The index trades at 8 times forward earnings, against a growth forecast at 9 per cent. With reason, perhaps, earnings forecasts have been falling. Recent policy moves, including renminbi devaluation, suggest the economy is in rough shape. Broad activity data such as electricity generation have been slowing for months.

由于中国内地对投资的限制，国际投资者借道香港买卖中国内地企业的股票。所以，H股表现欠佳表明，境外投资者对于中国经济放缓的担心，压倒了中国股民残存希望和国家干预两方面的影响。不过，许多H股在绝对值基础上也很便宜。恒生中国企业指数的预期市盈率为8倍，而成分股的盈利增长预期为9%。也许有道理的是，盈利预期在下降。包括人民币贬值在内，近来的政策举动显示，目前中国经济处境艰难。几个月以来，发电量等宏观活动数据一直在放缓。

At the same time, though, some first-half earnings have been unexpectedly healthy. On Wednesday, Chinese automaker Geely and property developer China Overseas Land and Investment beat estimates. If other companies follow, it may be worth dipping a toe in Hong Kong’s waters.

但另一方面，有些企业的上半年盈利强劲得出人意外。周三，中国汽车制造商吉利汽车(Geely)和房地产商中国海外发展有限公司(COLI)都公布了胜于预期的业绩。如果其它企业也能如此，那么试水香港市场或许是值得的。