身处巅峰的德国能否留住黄金时刻

Germany has a habit of winning the World Cup at symbolic moments. Victory in 1954 – captured in the film, The Miracle of Bern – allowed Germans a moment of pride and redemption after defeat and disgrace in 1945. A second victory in 1974 went to a West Germany whose “economic miracle” had, by then, allowed it to regain its status as one of the world’s most advanced nations. Victory in 1990, just months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, caught the joy and potential of a soon-to-be united Germany.

德国有在具有象征意义的时刻赢得世界杯的惯例。1954年世界杯夺冠——被拍成电影《伯尔尼的奇迹》(The Miracle of Bern)——让德国人在1945年的战败和耻辱之后迎来了自豪和救赎的时刻。1974年西德赢得第二次世界杯冠军，当时该国创造的“经济奇迹”已让其重新成为全球最发达的国家之一。在“柏林墙”倒塌仅仅数月之后的1990年世界杯上夺冠，则正好赶上了德国即将统一带来的喜悦和光明前景。

Now, in 2014, Germany has won the World Cup again – and once more at a symbolic moment. The past five years have seen Germany re-emerge as the leading political power in Europe. Britain and France may have the nuclear weapons and permanent membership of the UN Security Council. But the euro-crisis has seen Germany emerge as the undisputed leader of the EU.

现在到了2014年，德国队在巴西世界杯上再次夺冠，而且又是在具有象征意义的时刻。德国在过去5年再次成为欧洲的领导性政治力量。没错，英国和法国拥有核武器，而且还是联合国安理会(UN Security Council)常任理事国。但在欧元危中，德国已经成为毫无争议的欧盟(EU)领袖。

Even calling Germany the “dominant power” in Europe would have sounded unsettling a few years ago. But modern Germany has pulled off the unusual trick of being simultaneously powerful and popular. A BBC poll, carried out in 21 nations last year, suggested that Germany was the most admired country in the world.

即便在几年前，将德国称为欧洲的“主导力量”听起来还令人不安。但现代德国已经掌握了在强大的同时受人欢迎的非凡技巧。英国广播公司(BBC)去年在21个国家开展的民调显示，德国是全球最受钦佩的国家。

While Paris feels like a beautiful museum, Rome is crumbling and London is overpriced and overcrowded, Berlin has emerged as a cool city, full of art galleries, clubs and exciting modern architecture from the Reichstag to Potsdamer Platz. It is also a city in which the young can still afford to live.

巴黎像是一个漂亮的博物馆，罗马正分崩离析，伦敦生活成本过高而且人口也过多，而柏林已成为一个很酷的城市，到处是艺术画廊、俱乐部，以及从国会大厦(Reichstag)到波茨坦广场(Potsdamer Platz)等令人兴奋的现代建筑。柏林还是一座年轻人仍能住得起的城市。

Once again, the German football team captures the mood of the moment. The sides of 1954 and 1974 were resented by some fans for defeating more stylish opponents – in the shape of Hungary and the Netherlands. The victorious German teams of 1974 and 1990 were praised for being “efficient” or “hard-working” – and lampooned for their ludicrous hairstyles. By contrast, the current German side is applauded for its flair and its sportsmanship. It is also the most multicultural team to represent the country in a World Cup final, reflecting the increasing openness of German society. Yet some of the old virtues remain. At its best, the German team does feel like a well-designed machine, with all the parts working together in harmony. It seemed fitting that Mario Götze, the scorer of the winning goal in Rio, is the son of a technology professor – and one of the two players in the team born in a united Germany.

德国国家足球队再次抓住了这一时刻的情绪。在1954年和1974年的世界杯上，德国队因击败了匈牙利和荷兰这两个更为时尚的对手而遭到一些球迷的憎恨。在1974年和1990年世界杯上夺冠的德国国家队因“高效”或“勤奋”而受到赞扬，因滑稽可笑的发型而遭受奚落。相比之下，如今的德国国家队因才华和运动员精神而备受赞誉。它也是杀入世界杯决赛的最具多元文化的德国球队，反映出德国社会日益开放。然而，德国队依然保留了一些古老的美德。处于最佳状态的德国队就像是一部精心设计的机器，所有零件都协调地运行。在里约热内卢攻入致胜一球的马里奥•格策(Mario Götze)是一位技术教授的儿子，也是在德国统一之后出生的两名球员之一，这看上去也恰好合适。

But if all that sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Germany is undoubtedly going through a golden moment – on and off the football-field – but there are reasons for fearing that it will prove all too momentary. Political leadership in Europe involves making choices – and those choices will inevitably be unpopular in many quarters. To paraphrase Trotsky on war, while modern Germans may not be interested in power, power is interested in them. So while the country has a positive image in the world at large, where its power is not yet felt, the euro-crisis has seen Germany’s image take a battering in its own European backyard. The Merkel government’s insistence on economic austerity in southern Europe has revived old images of arrogant, unfeeling Germans. Asked which country they least wanted to see lift the World Cup, the Portuguese, Spanish, Greeks, Dutch and English all named Germany in their top two least favourite nations.

但如果这一切听起来好得令人难以置信，那么它很有可能就是虚幻的。德国无疑正在经历黄金时刻（无论是在足球场上还是其他方面），但人们有理由担心，这将是昙花一现。在欧洲政治中居于领导地位意味着要做出选择，而那些选择将不可避免地在许多地方不受欢迎。套用托洛茨基(Trotsky)关于战争的名言来说，尽管现代德国人可能对权力不感兴趣，但权力对他们感兴趣。因此，尽管德国总体上在世界上拥有正面的形象——他们目前还未感觉到德国的影响力——但在欧元危机中，德国的形象在自家的欧洲后院遭受重创。默克尔政府坚持要求欧洲南部国家实行经济紧缩，唤起人们对德国人傲慢和无情的印象。在被问及最不希望哪个国家捧起大力神杯时，葡萄牙人、西班牙人、希腊人、荷兰人和英格兰人全都把德国列为最不希望的两个国家之一。

When it comes to Germany’s global role, the country itself remains deeply divided. The row over US spying on Germany has revived a latent anti-Americanism that was very visible during the Bush years. Indignation over snooping is understandable, but – among the German public – it seems to have spilled over into a refusal to choose between Russia and the west. A recent opinion poll, taken before the latest spying row, showed that more Germans think their country should maintain a policy of equal distance between Russia and the western alliance than opt for a pro-west strategy. That attitude alarms Germany’s Atlanticist foreign-policy establishment, as well as its eastern neighbours. German diplomats are worried that their government’s views are out-of-tune with the public they are meant to represent.

就德国在全球的角色来说，德国自身也存在严重的分歧。围绕美国对德国开展间谍活动的争吵，唤醒了一直潜伏的反美主义——这种反美主义在布什政府期间表现得非常明显。因遭受窃听而愤怒是可以理解的，但在德国公众当中，这种愤怒似乎产生了溢出效应，变成拒绝在俄罗斯和西方之间做出选择。在最新间谍风波曝光之前所做的一项民调显示，更多的德国人认为，德国应该在俄罗斯与西方盟友之间保持不偏不倚政策，而不是选择亲西方战略。这种态度让德国持大西洋主义立场的外交政策当局及东部邻国感到警惕。德国外交官担心，政府的观点与他们本应代表的公众的观点相悖。

As long as Germany’s economy is humming along as efficiently as its football team, its EU neighbours are likely to be careful and polite about any reservations they might have about Berlin’s foreign policy. However, thoughtful observers within Germany itself are worried that the success of the economy is reliant on a number of advantages that will erode with time.

只要德国经济像其足球队一样高效发展，它的欧盟邻国就很可能在表达对柏林外交政策的保留意见时，保持谨慎和客气。然而，德国国内思虑周到的观察家担心，德国经济赖以成功的许多优势将随着时间推移而逐渐消失。

Germany has lousy demographics. Its fertility rate of just over 1.3 children per woman means that the country’s population is both ageing and on a downward trajectory. Recent moves to reduce the pension age for some workers will make this problem worse.

德国的人口结构不容乐观。德国的生育率为每位妇女生育1.3个孩子，这意味着德国人口正在老化，而且处于下行轨迹。最近德国出台的降低部分工人退休年龄的举措将让问题更加严峻。

After years of domestic wage restraint, German workers are understandably pushing for higher pay, But that could erode Germany’s hard-won competitiveness, Meanwhile, German industry may be threatened by its reliance on exporting to austerity-stricken neighbours, even as China’s industrial firms move upmarket and attack the profitable niches that Germany has made its own.

在多年限制国内薪资水平以后，德国工人寻求涨薪是可以理解的，但这可能侵蚀德国来之不易的竞争力，与此同时，德国工业可能因为依赖于对受紧缩之苦的邻国的出口而面临风险，而就在这个时候，中国的工业企业进军高端市场，并冲击德国原本占领的利润丰厚的利基市场。

Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose quietly impressive leadership has contributed a lot to the positive image of modern Germany, will be well aware of the challenges that lie ahead. But, along with the rest of the nation, victory in Rio allowed her a moment to pause – and relish Germany’s golden moment.

德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)低调而令人印象深刻的领导风格对现代德国的正面形象贡献良多。她将清楚地意识到德国面临的挑战。但德国获得巴西世界杯冠军，让她可以和其他德国人一起暂时停下来，享受德国的黄金时刻。