梦幻显示背后 现在买4K电视机划算吗

There are few things consumers love more than their television sets. Typically, when the industry introduces a new standard or technology, be it color sets, flat screens or high def, the stampede to the mall is quick and impressive.

几乎没有什么东西比电视机更受消费者喜爱了。一般来讲，当这个行业引进新的标准或技术时，不管是彩色、纯平还是高清，大家都会飞快涌向卖场，人潮叹为观止。

This time there may not be a stampede.

这一次，可能就没有人潮涌动了。

Ultra HD television, sometimes referred to as 4K, is widely seen as a leap forward in picture quality. More pixels and big screens -- some of which are curved, for an immersive viewing experience -- do raise the bar in TV watching, Critics say.

有时候又被称为4K电视机的超高清(Ultra HD)电视机，被普遍视为画质的一场大跃进。批评者说，更多的像素和更大的屏幕――有些屏幕是弯曲的，形成一种沉浸式的观看体验――确实提高了看电视的标准。

What's more, as production ramps up, prices are coming down to where some of the lower-end 4K sets are competitive with large-screen HD sets.

另外，随着生产规模扩大，价格正在下降，某些低端4K电视机已经可与大屏幕高清(HD)电视机竞争。

But have they fallen far enough for consumers en masse to buy? Or should shoppers wait until prices fall further?

但是否已经下降到让普通消费者踊跃购买的水平？或者，消费者是不是应该等到价格进一步下降的时候？

Critics say some technical issues remain, such as concerns about whether there is sufficient bandwidth in most homes to support uninterrupted viewing. There is also relatively little to watch, so far, in 4K.

批评者说，有些技术问题仍然存在，比如多数住宅的带宽是否足以支持流畅观看这样的顾虑。目前4K格式的内容也相对稀少。

But supporters argue that a 4K television set, given its ability to improve current HD picture quality, among other reasons, is a better purchase even at today's prices than a large-screen HDTV, which threatens to lock viewers into an increasingly inferior standard for years to come.

但支持者认为，考虑到能够提升当前高清画面的质量和其他一些因素，即便是以今天的价格，购买4K电视机也比购买大屏幕高清电视机划算，购买后者很有可能让看电视的人在未来好几年都局限于一种日显低劣的标准。

It's better to wait, says Brett Sappington, director of research at Dallas-based Parks Associates. Jack Wetherill, senior market analyst at British-based Futuresource Consulting, says 4K is a good buy already.

达拉斯Parks Associates研究总监布雷特・萨平顿(Brett Sappington)说，最好是再等等。英国Futuresource Consulting公司的高级市场分析师杰克・韦瑟里尔(Jack Wetherill)则说，4K电视机已经值得买了。

Yes: If You Buy It Now, You Are Set For Many Years to Come

买：如果现在买，今后好多年都不用换了

When consumers shop for a large-screen TV, two requirements tend to be at the top of the checklist: a 'wow' factor, and an affordable price.

消费者选购大屏幕电视机的时候，有两个要求是他们最看重的，一是惊艳的元素，二是便宜的价格。

Ultra-high-definition, or 4K, television sets meet the first requirement with flying colors. Ultra HD offers picture quality way beyond what is widely available in homes today: four times the picture resolution of today's HD. That means four times the number of pixels, the tiny points that make up the image. The greater array of colors and the sharper contrast, especially in the large-screen format, give viewers a feeling of being immersed in what they're watching.

超高清(Ultra HD)电视机或曰4K电视机轻而易举地满足了第一个要求。它的画质远远超过今天家庭普通电视机的水平：其分辨率是今天高清电视机的四倍，也就是说，像素（组成画面的小点）为后者的四倍。更丰富的色彩和更强烈的对比度，特别是通过大屏幕的形式展现出来，给观看者一种沉浸于所观看内容的感觉。

There's your 'wow' factor.

这就是你所要的惊艳元素。

Long-Term Purchase

长远投资

As for an affordable price, while 4K is still a relatively new technology, and price tags admittedly were astronomical to begin with, prices now have fallen to where they are competitive with high-end alternatives in the large-screen HD market. Today, 4K sets from leading brands with 55-inch screens are available for $2,300. It would be less expensive to buy a screen of the same size in 1080p. But large-screen TVs are a long-term purchase and represent great value for money. As the average U.S. household will keep its new TV for around seven years and use it for five hours a day, this equates to just 18 cents per hour used.

至于价格是否可承受的问题，虽然4K电视机仍然是一种相对新颍的技术，一开始也是众所周知的天价，但现在的价格已经下降到可比高端大屏幕高清电视机的水平。今天花2,300美元就可以买到一台一线品牌的55英寸4K电视机。同样尺寸的1080p电视机更加便宜，但大屏幕电视机是一笔长期投资，物有所值。鉴于美国普通家庭会将新购电视机保留七年左右的时间且每天使用五个小时，这等于每用一个小时仅花18美分。

Larger screens and better picture quality are the wave of the future. Consumers are buying increasingly large TV sets (27% of last year's sales were 50-inch screens and larger, and 10% were 60-inch and above). As a result, 1080p picture quality is reaching its limits on larger screens. Shoppers who buy a bigger screen with 1080p now will be acquiring a TV that will be quickly outdated in terms of quality in the near future.

更大的屏幕和更好的画质是未来的潮流。消费者购买的电视机正变得越来越大（去年销量当中27%是50英寸及以上，10%是60英寸及以上）。因此大屏幕上1080p的画质正在逼近极限。以画质而论，现在购买1080p的大屏幕电视机，不远的将来就会很快过时。

TV manufacturers are solidly behind UHD. Unlike 3-D television, 4K does not require the inconvenience of special glasses. Those who choose their 4K set carefully will be buying a television that is future-proofed for years to come. The key technology building blocks, HDMI 2.0, an interface for transferring video and audio data which supports 4K resolution, and HEVC, a video compression format, both of which will be necessary to enjoy the full benefits of HD as it continues to improve, are already available on many 4K sets.

电视机生产商坚定支持超高清。和3D电视机不一样的是，4K电视机不需要麻烦地戴上特殊的眼镜。仔细挑选4K电视机的人，将是在购买一台几年之内都不会过时的电视机。高清电视在继续改进，而要享受其全部好处，两种关键技术成分必不可少，而很多4K电视机已经具备了这两种技术：一个是HDMI 2.0接口，用于转换支持4K分辨率的音视频数据；还有一个是视频压缩格式HEVC。

Content Is Coming

内容会越来越丰富

Content in 4K still is limited, but in time, more will become available. Consumers who are concerned about a lack of native 4K content now can take comfort in the knowledge that TV manufacturers have put a lot of work into upscaling technology to ensure that today's HD content looks even better on 4K sets right now. And a new generation of Blu-ray players and discs that will be able to play back native 4K content in all its glory is in the pipeline, perhaps 18 months away.

4K内容仍然有限，但假以时日，越来越多的内容都将可以获得。目前担心缺少原生4K内容的消费者可以放心，因为电视机生产商花了很大力气提升技术，来确保今天的高清内容在现在的4K电视机上效果都要更好。能够播放正宗原生4K内容的新一代蓝光播放机和光碟即将到来，可能还有一年半的时间。

Much of the first 4K content will become available via the Internet. A broadband speed of 15 megabits per second is enough to ensure a good experience of 4K, and many households already have this. Viewers who want to be among the first to watch must-see shows such as 'House of Cards' in 4K will find 4K sets an attractive proposition. Those who choose to rely on Wi-Fi rather than their wired device for 4K streaming will note that many products are now emerging that feature enhanced Wi-Fi to handle 4K streaming.

第一批4K内容当中的很大一部分将是通过互联网发布。每秒15兆的带宽足以确保良好的4K体验，很多家庭已经具备。希望第一批观看4K格式《纸牌屋》(House of Cards)等必看剧的观众将会发现4K电视机是一个不错的方案。选择依靠WiFi而不是有线设备在线播放4K内容的人们将会注意到，现在很多新产品都带有增强WiFi功能来处理4K内容的在线播放。

Big sporting events often trigger households into upgrading their sets. With the World Cup starting in Brazil next month, the coming weeks will see many consumers upgrading their sets to enjoy the event in the highest quality possible.

重大体育赛事常常诱使家庭升级电视机。世界杯将于6月份在巴西开赛，接下来几个星期将会有很多消费者升级电视机，用最好的画质来欣赏赛事。

Those who are in the market now for a new large-screen set should seriously consider 4K models. As with most new electronics products, prices will fall further. But the 4K sets are already good value for money. If you buy a 1080p set now, which you will likely keep until the next decade, the picture will look increasingly low-res as time passes.

目前正在市场上寻找新款大屏幕电视机的消费者应当认真考虑4K型号。和大多数新款电子产品一样，价格将会进一步下跌。但4K电视机已经物有所值。如果现在买一台1080p的电视机，可能你会一直用到2020年，随着时间的推移，其分辨率将会显得越来越低。

If you can afford 4K now -- why wait?

如果现在就买得起4K，干吗要等呢？

Mr. Wetherill is senior market analyst at Futuresource Consulting Ltd., Dunstable, England.

Jack Wetherill 是英国邓斯特布尔咨询公司Futuresource Consulting Ltd.的高级市场分析师。

No: Little Content And High Prices Make It a Bad Deal

不买：内容少，价格高，不划算

Strolling down to your nearby electronics store, you see a promotion for something called 4K TV. The clarity and detail of the picture is striking, even with your nose pressed right up against the glass of the TV screen.

溜达到附近的电子产品店，看到广告上推销一种名叫“4K电视机”的东西。清晰度和画面细节让人震撼，哪怕你把鼻子紧贴到电视机屏幕的玻璃上去。

Then, looking at the price tag, you are struck by clarity of a different sort.

然后看价签，你就会因为另外一种清晰度而感到震撼。

Many consumers are encountering the 4K phenomena. But to enjoy the true benefits of 4K, three things need to be present: the television, the content, and a way to get the content to the TV. It's a bit like the proverbial three-legged stool. If one of the legs is a bit short of the others, the experience is, at best, uneven. Missing a leg? Then the system doesn't work at all.

很多消费者都遇到了这种4K现象。但要享受4K带来的真正好处，三个条件必须具备：电视机，内容，把内容引导至电视机上的途径。有如俗谚所说的三脚凳，如果一条腿比另两条短，那么整个体验最多也只称得上不均衡。要是少了一条腿，整个系统根本就无法工作。

TV makers rolled out 4K sets in early 2012, demonstrating 84-inch behemoths with stunning picture quality priced in the $20,000 range. By the end of 2013, prices had fallen dramatically, with 55-inch 4K TVs priced as low as $3,500. And by last month, prices had fallen further to $2,500.

电视机生产商在2012年年初推出4K电视机，展出了84英寸的庞然大物，画质惊艳，价格在2万美元左右。到2013年底，价格已经大幅下降，55英寸4K电视机最低的只有3,500美元。到今年4月份，更是进一步下探到2,500美元。

But do you really want the least expensive television in 4K, one with limited features and a brand you may have never heard of?

但你真的想买价格最便宜、功能有限、牌子从来没有听说过的4K电视机吗？

One Buying Strategy

购买策略

The difference in price between 4K and HDTV is greatest among the larger screen sizes. Consumers can purchase a 70' screen from well-known HDTV makers for around $1,700, compared with more than $4,000 for a similarly sized 4K TV. Effectively, a consumer could buy the 70' HDTV today, buy a 4K set when prices are lower, and still come out ahead.

大屏幕电视机当中，4K与HD之间的价差最大。消费者可以按1,700美元左右的价格买一台来自知名高清电视机生产商的70英寸电视机，相比之下同样尺寸的4K电视机要花4,000多美元。消费者基本上可以在今天买一台70英寸的高清电视机，在价格更低的时候买一台4K电视机，同时仍然享有优势。

Production of 4K content, meanwhile, is just getting under way. A few World Cup games will be in 4K, but regular broadcasts of live sports won't be available for some time. Sony offers more than 50 movies in 4K, and the movie studios are following suit. In Japan, 4K broadcasting could begin as early as this summer. The rest of the world, however, is still at least a year or two away from 4K TV channels.

与此同时，4K内容的生产才刚刚开始。几场世界杯比赛将用4K格式，但经常性的4K赛事直播在一段时间内还看不到。索尼(Sony) 有50多部电影是4K，各电影制作公司也在跟进。在日本，4K电视节目最早有可能在今年夏季开始播出。但世界其他地方至少还有一两年才会有4K电视频道出现。

Therein lies the industry's greatest challenge: getting 4K content to the TV.

行业面临的最大挑战，是怎样把4K内容传到电视机上。

Season 2 of Netflix's 'House of Cards' is one of the first series available in 4K. But today, no U.S. pay-TV service or broadcaster offers 4K, either on demand or as a TV channel. Comcast Corp. and online movie service M-GO have both announced partnerships with Samsung to deliver 4K content sometime this year, but neither service is available yet to consumers.

Netflix《纸牌屋》第二季将是第一批4K电视连续剧之一。但在今天，没有哪家付费电视服务公司或电视台提供4K，不管是按需提供的4K还是4K电视频道。康卡斯特(Comcast Corp.)和在线电影服务商M-GO都公布了跟三星(Samsung)的合作方案，将在今年的某个时候发行4K内容，但两家公司的服务都还无法为消费者享受。

The holdup is due to the size of 4K files. To stream a 4K video, you will need a broadband service that can provide a speed of at least 15 megabits per second, all the time.

这种停顿状态缘于4K文件的大小。要在线播放一部4K视频，宽带服务商必须能够持续提供至少每秒15兆的网速。

Even if you subscribe to a 15 to 20 Mbps service, inconsistencies in the Internet speed from your provider as well as use of the Internet by other devices in the home may reduce your 4K viewing to a long series of pauses as your connection coughs out a few minutes of video at a time. Homes may need service of 50 Mbps or better to have an adequate 4K streaming experience.

即便是订购了15Mbps到20Mbps的服务，服务商网速的不连贯以及家中其他设备对网络的使用都有可能导致每隔几分钟就断网一次，从而使你的4K观看体验沦为一连串的停顿。家庭网速可能需要达到50Mbps甚至以上，才能获得差强人意的4K在线播放体验。

Disc Slip

碟子也不行

Physical media is also not the answer. Blu-ray discs cannot handle 4K content. The player can support playout of 2160p images and video, but the discs themselves don't have the capacity to hold most 4K movies and the extras that are often included in Blu-ray. For now, studios are putting 2K versions of movies on Blu-ray discs and promoting them as mastered or filmed in 4K. Once discs are developed that can handle 4K, they may require entirely new players.

实体媒介也不是答案。蓝光光碟应付不了4K内容。播放机可以支持2160p图像和视频的播放，但碟子本身的容量放不下大多数4K电影以及常常被包含在蓝光光碟里面的花絮。目前影视制作公司正在把2K版本的电影放进蓝光光碟里面，在推销的时候说母版是4K或拍摄的时候是4K。等能够处理4K内容的光碟开发出来，可能就需要用全新的播放机才能播放了。

Finally, it's true that when watching HD content on a 4K set there can be a marginally better picture. But why pay two to three times as much to get a slightly better picture quality when actual 4K content won't be available for some time?

最后，在4K电视机上看高清内容的画质可能要略好一些，这不假。但是，在还有一段时间才能看到正宗4K内容的时候，为什么要花两三倍的钱去获得一种稍微好一点的画质呢？

Only the hardiest gadget lovers should think of buying 4K now while they still cannot get the full benefit of it. Everyone else can wait.

在眼下无法享受4K全部好处的时候，只有最狂热的科技产品爱好者才应该考虑买一台4K电视机，其他所有人都可以等等。