年西方乱局背后 一场"白色"危机(下)

THE EFFECT OF RAPID CHANGE

飞速变化的效应

Social scientists, after crunching data from both sides of the Atlantic, have discovered something surprising: it’s not the amount of racial or ethnic diversity in a community that predicts white resentment and support of anti-immigrant policies, but the pace of change.

社会科学家们分析了来自大西洋两岸的数据，发现了一些惊人的事情：在社区内，引起白人不满，并令他们支持反移民政策的，并不是多样化民族或种族的人数，而是变化的速度。

DenmArk, for instance, is 88 percent white Danish today — hardly a majority in jeopardy. But a generation ago, in 1980, it was 97 percent white. The anti-immigrant Danish People’s Party is now the second-largest party in the Danish Parliament. In Germany, where the foreign-born population shot up by approximately 75 percent between 2011 and 2015, the anti-immigrant, populist Alternative for Germany party is now drawing record support.

以丹麦为例，如今，88%的丹麦人口都是白人——这样的多数地位很难动摇。但在1980年，也就是上一代人的时候，丹麦有97%的人口是白人。反移民的丹麦人民党(Danish People’s Party)现在是丹麦议会中的第二大党。在德国，从2011年到2015年间，非本土出生人口激增了大约75%，反移民的民粹政党德国另类选择党(Alternative for Germany)如今获得了破纪录的支持率。

Britain saw a 66 percent increase in its foreign-born population between 2004 and 2014. Voters who chose “leave” in the recent referendum overwhelmingly cited immigration as their main concern.

在英国，从2004年到2014年，非本土出生的人口增长了66%。最近的全民公投中，投票选择“离开”的人大都说移民问题是自己最大的顾虑。

Professor Kaufmann and a colleague, Gareth Harris, found that white Britons who lived in areas that are rapidly diversifying became more likely to vote for the right-wing British National Party. Daniel Hopkins, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, found a similar pattern of ethnic change leading to anti-immigrant politics in the United States.

考夫曼和同事加雷思•哈里斯(Gareth Harris)发现，居住在那些人种快速多样化地域的英国白人更倾向于投给右翼的英国国家党(British National Party)。宾夕法尼亚大学政治学教授丹尼尔•霍普金斯(Daniel Hopkins)在美国发现了相似的民族变化导致反移民政策的规律。

Immigrant populations in Arkansas, North Carolina and Tennessee have more than tripled since 1990, noted Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, in an analysis for Vox. Anxiety over those changes may explain why the Republican Party became so much more focused on limiting immigration over that period — and why white voters in those states overwhelmingly support Mr. Trump.

新美国基金会(New America Foundation)高级研究员李•德鲁特曼(Lee Drutman)在一份给Vox的分析文章中指出，在阿肯色州、北卡罗莱纳州和田纳西州，移民人口是1990年的三倍以上。围绕这些变化产生的焦虑或许可以解释共和党为什么在这个阶段更关注限制移民问题，还有这些州的白人投票者们何以压倒性地支持特朗普。

THE WHITENESS TABOO

“白”之禁忌

For decades, the language of white identity has only existed in the context of white supremacy. When that became taboo, it left white identity politics without a vocabulary.

几十年来，白人身份认同话语只存在于白人至上论的语境之中。当白人至上论成为禁忌，白人身份政治就陷入一种失语状态。

If you are a working-class white person and you fear that the new, cosmopolitan world will destroy or diminish an identity you cherish, you have no culturally acceptable way to articulate what you perceive as a crisis.

如果你是一个工薪阶层的白人，担心这个充满国际性的新世界会摧毁或贬抑你所珍视的身份认同，那么你并没有一种在文化上能够被接受的方式，去阐明自己内心感受到的危机。

Some of these people have instead reached for issues that feel close to their concerns: trade, crime, the war on drugs, controlling the borders, fear of Islamist terrorism. All are significant in their own right, and create very real fears for many people, but they have also become a means to have a public conversation about what society’s changes mean for white majorities.

这些人当中，有些人会借助另一些问题表达他们的忧虑：贸易、犯罪、毒品战争、边境控制、对伊斯兰恐怖主义的恐惧。诚然，这些问题都很重要，也为许多人带来了真切的恐惧，但是它们已经变成一种方式，公众借助这些问题来讨论社会变革对于占多数的白人群体的影响。

Professor Ivarsflaten cited the U.K. Independence Party, whose official platform focused on Brexit but whose pitch to voters emphasized immigrants’ effects on the economy and culture, as an example of an effective hybrid populist pitch.

伊法斯夫拉腾以英国独立党(U.K. Independence Party)为例，它的官方平台力主脱欧，但是面向选民的宣传中又强调移民对经济与文化的影响，她说这是一种混合了务实与民粹的论调。

The approach has in some cases moved from the political fringes into the mainstream. Some leaders from Britain’s center-right, governing Conservative Party, for example, helped push a British exit, and since the referendum the new Conservative prime minister, Theresa May, has signaled sympathy with white identity politics.

在许多情况下，这种做法已经渐渐从政界边缘进入主流。比如说，英国的执政党保守党立场是中间偏右，它曾经推进英国脱欧，公投之后，新的保守党首相特丽莎•梅(Theresa May)表现出对白人身份政治的同情。

Mrs. May’s government proposed a rule that would publicly shame employers who hired foreign workers. And her first major speech was full of barbs directed against multiculturalism, including a jab against people who claimed to be “citizens of the world,” whom she called “citizens of nowhere.”

梅的政府提出了一条规则，以公开羞辱雇佣外国工人的雇主。她的第一次重要讲话中充满了对多元文化主义的尖锐讽刺，比如讽刺那些自称“世界公民”的人其实“哪儿的公民也不是”。

But the struggle for white identity is not just a political problem; it is about the “deep story” of feeling stuck while others move forward.

但是白人身份认同的斗争不仅仅是个政治问题，它也是一个“深藏的”故事，一个看到别人都在向前，自己却感觉困在原地的故事。

There will not likely be a return to the whiteness of social dominance and exclusive national identity. Immigration cannot be halted without damaging Western nations’ economies; immigrants who have already arrived cannot be expelled en masse without causing social and moral damage. And the other groups who seem to be “cutting in line” are in fact getting a chance at progress that was long denied them.

回归白人占统治地位的社会，实施排外的国民身份认同，这样的事情不太可能发生。移民一旦停止，肯定会损害西方国家的经济；如果大举驱逐已经到达的移民，肯定会引起社会与道德上的损失。那些看似来“插队”的人群其实是在寻觅一个机会，加入到一个长久以来把他们拒之门外的进程中来。

Western whites have a place within their nations’ new, broader national identities. But unless they accept it, the crisis of whiteness seems likely to continue.

在西方国家更新、更广泛的国民身份认同里，白人们也有自己的一席之地。但是除非他们接受这一点，“白”的危机仍会持续存在下去。