从中东教派冲突到欧洲恐袭

There was no linear connection between the events in Riyadh and Manchester — no obvious pathway between US president Donald Trump’s speech to Arab leaders in the Saudi Arabian capital and the wicked act of terrorism at a pop concert in the north of England.

发生在利雅得和曼彻斯特的事情之间没有线性联系——美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在沙特首都对阿拉伯领袖们发表的演讲，与发生在英格兰北部一场流行音乐会上的邪恶恐怖袭击之间，没有明显的因果关系。

For all that, we should feel uncomfortable with the coincidence. The perpetrators alone bear responsibility for murderous bombings such as that in Manchester. There is no room for “ifs” or “buts” or for spurious moral equivalence in such matters. It would also be a mistake to pretend that Islamist extremism is indifferent to the policies of western governments.

虽然如此，我们还是会对这种巧合感到不舒服。恐怖袭击的实施者们应对发生在曼彻斯特等地的凶残爆炸袭击承担全部责任。在这类事件中，没有“如果”或者“但是”或者虚假道德类比的余地。但假装伊斯兰极端主义对西方政府的政策漠不关心，也是错误的。

At its most basic, the latest in the long line of indiscriminate attacks in European cities was a reminder that we cannot build walls against the world beyond. The murderer in this instance carried a British passport, but the inspiration for such acts is found in the raging fires of sectarian conflict in the Middle East. You cannot build borders so high as to stop the corruption of young minds by warped ideologies or halt the digital transfer of lethal know-how.

从最基本层面看，发生在欧洲城市的一系列滥杀无辜的袭击事件中的最新一起提醒我们，我们无法通过修墙隔断外部世界。本案凶手持有英国护照，但攻击动机源于中东派系冲突引发的怒火。无论我们在边境建造多么高的围墙，都不能防止年轻人的头脑被扭曲的意识形态所腐蚀，也无法阻止专业的杀人手法以数字途径传播。

Mr Trump made something of this point in his address to the assembled Arab autocrats in Riyadh. Not so long ago the US president was declaring that “Islam hates us” and signing directives to bar travellers from several Muslim-majority countries. His message now is that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states should step up the fight against terrorism closer to home.

特朗普在利雅得对聚集在一起的阿拉伯独裁统治者们发表演说时，或多或少道出了这一点。不久之前，这位美国总统宣称“伊斯兰教憎恨我们”，并签署了禁止几个穆斯林占人口大多数的国家的游客入境美国的命令。如今，他的态度是，沙特等海湾国家应当加大对更接近本土的恐怖主义的打击力度。

Then come the familiar hypocrisies — though doubtless the president’s advisers would prefer to present them as foreign policy realism. Mr Trump, remember, was speaking in Saudi Arabia, the exporter of the extreme, Wahhabi brand of Sunni Islam that offers a theological underpinning for many of the jihadis. Most of the murderers behind the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington in 2001 were Saudi citizens.

接着出现了熟悉的伪善——尽管这位总统的顾问们无疑更喜欢把它描绘为外交政策现实。记住，特朗普是在沙特发表演讲，沙特是伊斯兰教逊尼派中极端的瓦哈比派(Wahhabi)的输出者。而瓦哈比派是许多圣战分子的意识形态支柱。2001年在纽约和华盛顿发生的9.11袭击事件的行凶者中，大多数是沙特公民。

The president’s speech carried no mention of such connections. Nor of the repression and human rights abuses practised by his hosts. Mr Trump was there to sell US weapons systems — $110bn worth of them — and to attract Saudi investment into the US. It was all about “jobs, jobs, jobs”, he said. This administration, he promised, would never seek to meddle in the domestic affairs of its allies.

这位总统的演讲没有提到这种关联。也没有提到东道主实施的压迫和人权践踏。特朗普去那里为的是推销美国武器——价值达1100亿美元——并吸引沙特投资进入美国。这都是为了“就业、就业、就业”，他说。他承诺，这个政府绝不寻求干涉盟友的内政。

Instead Mr Trump put the US at the head of the Sunni Arab coalition against Iran. Unable to unravel the international nuclear deal with Tehran, as he had promised, the president is set on uniting the Arab world — and Israel — against the Ayatollahs. The jihadis of Isis may be Sunni, but to Mr Trump’s mind responsibility for the sectarianism that disfigures so much of the region rests with Iran.

相反，特朗普把美国置于阿拉伯逊尼派对抗伊朗联盟的最前面。由于无法像之前承诺的那样撤销与伊朗达成的国际核协议，这位总统决定把阿拉伯世界——以及以色列——联合起来，共同对抗阿亚图拉。伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国(ISIS)的圣战分子也许是逊尼派，但在特朗普看来，造成中东大部分地区形象受损的宗派主义的责任，要由伊朗来背负。

We have been here before. The US backed Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in his 1980s war against Iran. A close relationship between Washington and the Gulf monarchies was long the default position of US policy towards the region.

这种情况以前发生过。1980年代的两伊战争中，美国支持伊拉克的萨达姆?侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)。与海湾君主国建立密切关系，曾是美国对中东政策的长期默认立场。

Barack Obama, Mr Trump’s predecessor, made the intelligent judgment that peace in the region — and eventual victory over the extremists — demanded some sort of accommodation between Saudi Arabia and Iran as the principal Sunni and Shia powers. In securing the nuclear deal with Iran, Mr Obama adopted a balanced approach calculated to draw Tehran back into the international community. Mr Trump prefers to pour fuel on to the sectarian flames.

特朗普的前任巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)做出了明智的判断：该地区的和平（以及最终对极端分子的胜利）需要作为逊尼派和什叶派主要大国的沙特与伊朗之间达成某种和解。通过与伊朗达成核协议，奥巴马采取了均衡的策略，旨在把伊朗拉回到国际社会。特朗普更愿意给宗派主义火上浇油。

Iran cannot be excused its role in propping up Bashar al-Assad in Syria or deploying its proxies to destabilise Sunni regimes elsewhere. Few would describe it as a paragon of freedom and the rule of law — unless, perhaps, they were drawing comparisons with Saudi Arabia or Egypt. It has, however, been moving, crab-like, towards something like democracy. As Mr Trump was being feted in feudal style, Iranians voted to defy their own theocracy by backing the reformist Hassan Rouhani for a second term as president.

伊朗无法推卸其在支持叙利亚巴沙尔?阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权或部署代理人破坏其他地区逊尼派政权稳定方面的责任。几乎无人把它描述为自由和法治的典范——或许除非把它与沙特或埃及作比较。然而，伊朗已在朝着某种类似民主的目标缓慢前进了。在特朗普受到封建风格的款待之际，伊朗人投票反抗本国的神权政治，支持改革派的总统哈桑?鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)连任。

The US and its western allies should have learnt long ago that they cannot “fix” the Middle East. George W Bush and Tony Blair believed they could transplant western democracy at the point of a cruise missile. The present violence in Iraq and Syria attest to their error. But nor did backing the Arab autocrats work. Repressive regimes provided the incubators for violent Islamism. We should not expect things to be different in future.

很久以前，美国及其西方盟友就应吸取教训：它们无法“修正”中东。小布什(George W Bush)和托尼?布莱尔(Tony Blair)认为，他们能够用巡航导弹把西方民主移植过来。如今伊拉克和叙利亚的暴力活动证明了他们的错误。但支持阿拉伯独裁者也无济于事。高压政权为暴力伊斯兰主义提供了温床。我们不应指望未来情况会出现变化。

The west, though, should at least direct itself to the avoidance of harm. Of two things we can be certain. However much high-tech military hardware they buy from the US, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states cannot defeat Iran; and for as long as Riyadh and Tehran fight a Sunni-Shia war, there is no prospect of a regional settlement that would deny safe spaces for jihadis.

不过，西方至少应当引导自己避免作出伤害。我们可以确信的有两件事。无论沙特和海湾国家从美国购买多少高技术军事装备，它们都无法击败伊朗；只要沙特和伊朗继续打逊尼派对抗什叶派的战争，那么就不会有达成地区和解、让圣战分子丧失安全据点的可能性。

So back to Manchester. None of us can imagine what was in the mind of Salman Abedi as he set off the bomb that killed and maimed young children and their parents in their innocent enjoyment of an evening out. What we know is that the only way to respond to such outrages is to remain resolute at once in the fight against the perpetrators and in safeguarding the liberal democratic values they seek to destroy. Sadly, we can also be sure that taking sides in a sectarian power struggle will only defer the eventual defeat of extremists.

那么再回到曼彻斯特事件。我们谁也无法想象出，当萨勒曼?阿贝迪(Salman Abedi)引爆炸弹、炸死炸伤那些在享受夜晚的无辜的孩子及其父母时，他心里想的是什么。我们知道的是，对付这种暴行的唯一途径是继续坚决打击凶手，并捍卫他们想要摧毁的自由民主价值观。遗憾的是，我们可能也必须明白，在一场不同派系之间的权力争夺中偏袒一方，只会延迟极端分子的最终失败。