关注社会:亚洲能从欧洲危机中学到什么

A Chinese proverb tells us that it is wise to learn from your own mistakes but wiser to learn from the mistakes of others. Asian leaders should take this advice to heart as they juggle between policies for social welfare and economic dynamism. By keeping a keen eye on Europe's fiscal crises, they can avoid the worst of the Continent's productivity-reducing excess.

中国有个成语叫“借镜观形”，是指聪明人应善于从别人的错误中吸取教训，引以为戒。如今正在为平衡社会福利与经济活力两者关系而大费心思的亚洲领导人们应该把这句话牢记心间。密切关注欧洲财政危机可以帮助亚洲领导人避免重蹈欧洲大陆的覆辙，躲开那些会降低生产力的过头做法。

At the same time, it would be a mistake for Asia to look to Europe solely for lessons on which policies to avoid. Europe could not have attained the highest quality of life in human history without doing some things right namely, trade and openness.

然而与此同时，在借欧洲之镜来照亚洲之形的时候，若只是着眼那些失误的政策，将欧洲作为反面教材，恐怕也不妥当。欧洲若是一无是处，也不可能实现人类历史上最高质量的生活水准──这里所说的“是处”即指贸易与开放。

In the decades since World War II, Europe has become the world's center of trade. In 2008, half of the world's trade in goods and services involved the Continent. Two-thirds of this trade was within Europe, helping small developing countries access big markets.

二战以降数十年间，欧洲已成为世界的贸易中心。2008年，全球的商品与服务贸易中，有半数涉及欧洲大陆。其中有三分之二发生在欧洲大陆之内，这帮助那些发展中的小国家得以接触到大市场。

People in Asia worry about a 'middle-income trap.' Countries seem to easily grow to levels of per-capita income of more than $1, 000, but find it difficult to reach and stay above high-income levels of more than $10, 000. In Europe, powered by vibrant trade and open financial flows, a dozen emerging economies have attained high incomes since 1985, such as Portugal in the 1990s and Poland in the 2000s.

亚洲人担心自己的国家会陷入“中等收入陷阱”。这些国家似乎轻而易举就能达到1,000美元以上的人均收入水平，但同时他们发现，若要达到或保持在一万美元以上的高收入水平线上则很难。在欧洲，活跃的贸易以及开放的金融环境使得大量新兴经济体在1985年后实现了高收入，比如说上世纪90年代的葡萄牙和本世纪最初十年的波兰。

European enterprise is also a success story. Between 1995 and 2009, Western Europe's entrepreneurs created jobs faster than the U.S. did, and European economies exported more than the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Eastern Europe's productivity increased more rapidly than East Asia's.

欧洲企业的发展经验也很成功。在1995年到2009年间，西欧的企业家们创造就业机会的速度要快于美国，而欧洲各经济体所出口的商品金额要超过“金砖四国”(BRIC，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)。东欧生产率的增长速度要快于东亚。

The main reason for this success is a freer business climate. European nations figure at the top of most rankings of entrepreneurial freedom and competitiveness. This is the result of reforms such as those in Sweden in the 1990s and Germany a decade later that modernized labor markets and welfare systems, and made it easier to start and shut down companies. (Greece and Italy show what happens when structural reforms are postponed).

如此成功的主要原因在于更为自由的商业环境。欧洲国家的企业自由度和市场竞争程度在全球排在前列。这要得益于一系列改革措施，比如上世纪90年代在瑞典、以及十年后在德国的改革，这些改革措施使得劳动力市场和社会福利制度得以现代化，并让创建以及关闭企业的过程更为便捷。（结构性改革一旦被延迟结果将会如何，希腊和意大利便是现成的例子。）

Asia can learn much from Europe. Trade could be made easier in Asia, and the conditions for doing business could be improved by reducing red tape. In this regard, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea have done better than the best in Europe. Now China, India and Indonesia stand to gain from doing the same.

亚洲从欧洲那里可学到的东西很多。亚洲的贸易可以更便捷一些，商业环境可以通过减少繁文缛节而有所改善。就这点而言，香港、新加坡和韩国的实践已经胜过欧洲在这方面做得最好的国家。而中国、印度和印尼则正在努力赶上。

The prosperity created by Europe's economic freedoms has allowed its citizens to lead longer, healthier lives. But the way Europeans have responded to growing wealth and longevity should serve as a cautionary tale for Asia.

欧洲经济自由所带来的繁荣，已经帮助欧洲人过上了更长寿、更健康的生活。不过，对于更富足、更长寿的生活，欧洲人所做出的反应则值得亚洲引以为戒。

Over time, Europeans have come to rely on governments to protect them from the rougher facets of private enterprise and to look after them in old age. According to the World Bank's Golden Growth report on the European economic model, Europe today spends more on social protection than the rest of the world combined amounting to 60% of global public outlays on welfare.

长久以来，欧洲人一直依靠政府来保护他们免受私营企业更严酷一面的打击，年迈之后凭靠政府来照顾他们。根据世界银行(World Bank)一份名为《黄金增长》(Golden Growth)、讨论欧洲经济增长模式的报告，欧洲如今在社会保障方面所投入的金额超过世界其他国家的总和──总计占到全球社会福利公共支出的60%。

The result has been a precipitous decline in work. In the 1950s, Western Europeans worked one month a year more than Americans. Now the situation is reversed: Today Americans work one month a year more than the French and Swedes, and noticeably more than the Greeks and Spaniards. Men in France now retire nine years earlier than in 1965 and live six years longer meaning that the average Frenchmen can expect to draw pensions for 15 more years than they did almost five decades ago.

其结果是工作时长的陡然减少。在上世纪50年代，西欧人每年的工作时间比美国人多一个月。如今情形正好相反：如今美国人每年的工作时间比法国和瑞典人多一个月，也明显多于希腊人和西班牙人。法国男性目前的退休年龄比1965年时提前九年，而寿命则长出了六年──这意味着，与近50年前相比，法国男性平均可以多拿15年的养老金。

The costs of such largesse are obvious. Both payroll taxes and fiscal deficits have increased. Europe could lose about 50 million workers over the next five decades if it fails to loosen labor laws and reform welfare programs.

政府如此慷慨，其代价也很明显。工资税和财政赤字已双双增加。欧洲如果不放松劳动法规并改革社会福利制度，那么在未来50年里，可能会失去大约5,000万就业人口。

As dynamic as Asia is today, it is not immune to these same predicaments. The most aged country in the world right now is Japan, and China and South Korea are the quickest-aging nations. In 2010, the average South Korean was 37 years old. By 2050, the median age there will be 57.

尽管亚洲经济如今活力十足，但也无法彻底避免同样的窘境。目前全球人口老龄化最为严重的国家是日本，而中国和韩国则是人口向老龄化趋势发展最为迅速的国家。2010年，韩国人口的平均年龄为37岁。到2050年，韩国人口的中位数年龄将达到57岁。

While prosperity and longevity arrive together, they cannot be treated the same. With greater wealth, people in Asia may not have to work as many hours as they do now. But living longer means they will have to work more years, not fewer. Just as Northern European countries such as Iceland and Norway have raised the age of retirement, so must every prospering economy. To do otherwise would unjustly burden future generations.

虽然富庶与长寿同时降临，但这两者却不能被等同对待。随着财富的增加，亚洲人或许不必像今天这样每天工作这么多小时。不过，寿命延长却意味着，他们需要工作的年数将不得不增加，而非减少。冰岛和挪威这样的北欧国家已经提高了退休年龄，每一个经济富庶的国家早晚都得如此。否则将会让未来数代的劳动人口不公平地背上沉重的负担。

Europe's economic malaise grew out of numerous mistakes. Some, to be sure, are tied to the peculiarities of the Continent's currency union. But Europe holds plenty of wider lessons for Asian states. They should see how nations that sacrifice too much economic freedom for social security end up with neither, impairing both private enterprise and public finance.

欧洲的经济困境是因一连串的错误所致。其中一些，不可否认，是与欧洲大陆统一的货币制度所带来的独特问题有关。不过欧洲也犯下了许多更具普遍意义的错误，值得亚洲国家借鉴。人们应该看到，那些过多牺牲经济自由以换取社会保障的国家最终是如何鸡飞蛋打一无所获的，这样的做法只会让私营企业和公共财政双双受损。

(Ms. Sri Mulyani is managing director at the World Bank. She was Indonesia's minister of finance from 2005-10.)

（本文作者英卓华(Sri Mulyani Indrawati)是世界银行常务副行长。2005年到2010年期间她曾担任印尼财政部长。