内外交困 欧洲陷入三大危机

There are three crises afflicting Europe. Two are on the borders of the EU: a warlike Russia and an imploding Middle East. The third emergency is taking place inside the EU itself — where political, economic and diplomatic tensions are mounting.

目前有三场危机困扰着欧洲。其中两场危机发生在欧盟(EU)边上：好战的俄罗斯和内乱的中东。第三个危机情况正在欧盟内部上演——政治、经济和外交紧张与日俱增。

The past month has seen all three crises facing Europe intensify. The terrorist attacks in Paris heightened fears about the potential spillover of violence and religious tensions from the Middle East. Russian-backed separatists have renewed their offensive in Ukraine. And Syriza’s victory in Greece means that — for the first time since the euro crisis broke out — a radical left party has won an election in an EU country.

在过去一个月里，欧洲面临的这三场危机均有所加剧。袭击巴黎的恐怖分子，加深了人们对中东暴力和宗教紧张产生溢出效应的担忧。俄罗斯支持的分裂势力在乌克兰再度发起进攻。激进左翼联盟(Syriza)在希腊大选中获胜意味着，极左政党在一个欧盟国家赢得选举——自欧元区危机爆发以来，这还是头一回。

The problems in Russia, the Middle East and theeurozone have very different roots. But, as they worsen, they are beginning to feed on each other.

俄罗斯、中东以及欧元区危机的根源差异很大。但是，随着形势恶化，它们开始相互助燃。

The economic slump in much of the EU has encouraged the rise of populist parties of the right and left. The sense of insecurity on which the populists feed has been further encouraged by the spillover from the conflict in the Middle East — whether in the form of terrorism or mass illegal migration. In countries such as Greece and Italy, the inflow of migrants from (or through) the Middle East has heightened the atmosphere of social crisis, making immigration almost as controversial as austerity.

欧盟大部分国家出现经济低迷，促进了右翼和左翼民粹主义政党的崛起。民粹主义者赖以壮大的不安全感，受到中东冲突溢出效应（无论是恐怖主义还是大规模非法移民）的进一步推动。在希腊和意大利等国，来自（或经由）中东地区的移民大量涌入，强化了社会危机氛围，使得移民问题几乎与紧缩政策一样备受争议。

Meanwhile, Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine presents the EU with its biggest foreign policy challenge since the cold war. Mishandled, it could lead to military conflict. The EU, marshalled by Germany, has managed to unite around a reasonably toughpackage of sanctions. But the rise of the political extremes within Europe threatens EU unity on Russia — making it more likely that the Kremlin will be emboldened and that the crisis will escalate.

与此同时，俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事干预，给欧盟带来冷战结束后最严峻的外交政策挑战。若处置不当，可能会导致军事冲突。在德国的推动下，欧盟迄今成功地团结起来，对俄罗斯实施了一套合理严厉的制裁方案。但是，欧洲内部政治极端主义的崛起，对欧盟在俄罗斯问题上的团结构成威胁——使克林姆林宫更有可能壮胆，也使危机更有可能升级。

One emotion that seems to unite the far-left and the far-right in countries such as Greece, Germany and France is a soft spot for Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The far-right likes Mr Putin’s social conservatism, his emphasis on the nation state, his authoritarianism and his hostility to America and the EU. The extreme left seems to have retained its traditional affinity for Moscow.

对弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)领导的俄罗斯抱有好感，似乎是希腊、德国和法国等国极右翼和极左翼的共同情结。极右翼欣赏普京的社会保守主义、他对民族国家的注重、他的威权主义以及他对美国和欧盟的敌意。极左翼似乎保留着对莫斯科的传统亲切感。

It makes perfect sense for Russia to cultivate the political extremes inside the EU. If the unity of the EU breaks down, the sanctions regime that has helped to isolate Russia will also begin to dissolve. Mr Putin has fostered ties with the far-right National Front in France, as well as Syriza in Greece. The first foreign dignitary received by Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek prime minister, was the Russian ambassador. Athens immediately voiced its opposition to further EU sanctions on Russia.

俄罗斯完全有理由煽动欧盟内部的政治极端主义。如果欧盟的团结瓦解，有助于孤立俄罗斯的制裁机制也将开始解体。普京已经与法国的极右翼政党国民阵线(National Front)和希腊的激进左翼联盟加强了联系。希腊新总理亚历克西斯•齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)会见的首位外宾便是俄罗斯大使。希腊随即表明反对欧盟对俄罗斯出台进一步制裁措施。

For Angela Merkel, the German chancellor and Europe’s dominant political figure, the problems are crowding in. She is under domestic pressure to be tough with Greece — but under international pressure to cut a deal. Greece’s flirtation with Russia has added a geopolitical angle to the euro crisis, making it likely that the Americans will press Germany to keep the Greeks within the EU family. (Historians might recall that the Truman doctrine of containment of the Soviet Union was rolled out in 1947, as Washington moved to keep Greece from falling into Moscow’s orbit.)

对于欧洲领头的政治人物、德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)而言，麻烦正接踵而至。她面临的国内压力要求她对希腊采取强硬态度，但国际间的压力要求她达成某种交易。希腊与俄罗斯之间的暧昧关系，给欧元区危机添加了一个地缘政治维度，可能会促使美国施压德国，要求让希腊留在欧盟大家庭内。（历史学家也许会回想起1947年为遏制苏联而推出的“杜鲁门主义”(Truman doctrine)，当时华盛顿努力确保希腊不落入莫斯科方面的轨道。）

The intensification of the fighting in Ukraine presents the German chancellor with another set of stark choices. The clamour to arm the Ukrainians is growing in the US and parts of the EU. But the Russians are issuing dire warnings about the consequences of such a decision that are likely to alarm the pacifistic German public. The rightwing German parties that are calling for toughness towards Greece and softness towards Russia, are also linked to the “anti-Islamisation” demonstrations that have broken out in German cities.

乌克兰冲突加剧给德国总理带来又一波严峻的选择。在美国，在欧盟一些地方，向乌克兰方面提供军火的呼声日益高涨。但是俄罗斯对此类决定的后果发出严重警告，很可能让和平主义的德国民众震惊。呼吁强硬对待希腊、温和对待俄罗斯的德国右翼政党，还与德国多座城市爆发的“反伊斯兰化”游行有牵连。

Ms Merkel’s government at least has the advantage of reasonably favourable economic conditions at home. Unemployment is low and Germany can borrow at rock-bottom rates. By contrast, there is a strong sense of social and economic crisis in other key EU countries. Unemployment is in double-digits in Spain, Italy and France — and Greek-style revolts against economic austerity and the EU are distinctly possible.

默克尔领导的政府在国内至少具备经济状况相当有利的优势。失业率维持低位，德国能以极低利率借款。相比之下，欧盟其它大国充满强烈的社会和经济危机感。西班牙、意大利和法国的失业率盘踞在两位数高位，完全可能出现针对经济紧缩政策和欧盟的希腊式反抗。

Worryingly, none of Europe’s three crises look like improving. In the Middle East, Syria and Libya are in a state of near-collapse and the situation is also bleak in Yemen and Iraq. Russia’s behaviour is becoming more, not less, threatening. And although optimists continue to argue that it is inevitable that Greece and the EU will strike a debt deal, the early signs are unpromising — and confrontation is looming.

令人担忧的是，欧洲的三场危机似乎没有好转迹象。在中东，叙利亚和利比亚正处于濒临崩溃的状态，也门和伊拉克的形势也十分黑暗。俄罗斯的行为正变得更具威胁性，而没有放缓的意思。尽管乐观主义者仍然认为，希腊和欧盟难免会达成债务协议，但早期迹象不容乐观——对抗的乌云正在聚集。

All of this looks like a formula for a further fracturing of the political centre in Europe. Loose parallels are being made with the politics of the 1930s when economic depression, combined with an unstable international political environment, led to the rise of political extremism — and, ultimately, war.

这一切看上去都可能导致欧洲的政治版图进一步破裂。有人将现在的格局与20世纪30年代进行粗略类比：当时经济萧条，加上不稳定的国际政治环境，导致政治极端主义兴起，最终引发战争。

Fortunately, comparisons with the interwar years still seem far-fetched. Europe back then was a continent still traumatised by the mass killing of the first world war. European states lacked welfare systems — which meant that a prolonged slump quickly translated into mass destitution.

幸运的是，与两次世界大战之间那个时期的类比似乎仍然牵强。那时的欧洲尚未从一战的大规模杀戮恢复元气，而且欧洲各国缺少福利体系——这意味着持续低迷很快转化为大规模贫困。

Modern Europe has an economic and political resilience, as well as a bedrock of wealth, that was simply not there in the 1930s. All the same, the current atmosphere in the continent is as unstable and unpredictable as anything that I can remember in my adult lifetime.

现代欧洲拥有经济和政治上的韧性，也拥有财富基础，这些都是20世纪30年代根本不存在的。不过在我的记忆中，目前的欧洲大陆，正处在自我成年以来最不稳定，且最难以预料的氛围之中。