俄罗斯是欧洲各国最危险的邻居

Russia is both a tragedy and a menace. In the Financial Times this week Sergey Karaganov offered an arresting insight into the blend of self-pity and braggadocio currently at work in Moscow. It is as depressing as it is disturbing. Western policy makers seem to believe the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) is the greater danger. But Russia is the nuclear-armed rump of a former superpower and, ruled by an amoral autocrat, it frightens me even more. For Europe and, I believe, the US, there is no greater foreign policy question than how to deal with today’s Russia.

俄罗斯既是一场悲剧，也是一个威胁。近日的英国《金融时报》上，谢尔盖•卡拉加诺夫(Sergey Karaganov)发表了一篇引人入胜的文章，深刻阐述了莫斯科相互交织的自怜与自负情绪。文中的内容既让人沮丧，也让人不安。西方政策制定者似乎相信“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的危险性更大。但前身是超级大国、拥有核武器、由一个无道德感的独裁者统治的俄罗斯更让我恐惧。对欧洲来说，如何应对当今的俄罗斯是最大的外交政策难题，在我看来对美国来说也是如此。

The west “proclaimed itself victor in the cold war”, according to Mr Karaganov. Maybe the origin of the tragedy can be found in this remark. The west did not just proclaim itself victor; it was the victor. A defensive alliance defeated the Soviet Union because it offered a better way of life. That is why so many wanted to escape the Soviet prison, including many once-optimistic Russians.

卡拉加诺夫表示，西方“宣告自己是冷战(Cold War)的胜者”。也许我们能从这句话里找到悲剧的根源。西方不仅仅宣告自己是胜者；西方那时也的确是胜者。西方的防务同盟打败了苏联(Soviet Union)，因为它提供了更好的生活方式。这也是为什么那么多人都想要逃离苏联的牢笼，包括许多一度乐观的俄罗斯人。

Yet President Vladimir Putin, the latest in a long line of Russian autocrats, has stated, instead: “The collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century.” It was, in fact, an opportunity, one that many in central and eastern Europe seized with both hands. The transition to a new way of life proved unavoidably difficult. The world they now inhabit is highly imperfect. But they have mostly joined the world of civilised modernity. What does this mean? It means intellectual and economic freedom. It means the right to engage freely in public life. It means governments subject to the rule of law and accountable to their people.

然而，俄罗斯长长的独裁者名单上最新的一位，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)却宣称：“苏联解体是那个世纪的重大地缘政治灾难。”事实上，苏联解体是许多中欧和东欧人全力抓住的机会。向新的生活方式过渡存在困难是难免的。他们现在所处的世界极为不完美。但他们基本上加入了文明和现代的世界。这是什么意思？意思是人们思想和经济自由，拥有自由参与公共生活的权利，政府受法治约束，向人民负责。

The west has too often failed to live up to these ideals. But they remain beacons. In the early 1990s they were beacons to many Russians. As a great admirer of Russian culture and Russian courage, I hoped, fondly perhaps, that the country would find a way through the debris of its collapsed ideology, state and empire. I knew it would be difficult. I wanted Russia to choose western values, however, not just for our sake but also for its own. The alternative of continuing the cycle of despotism was too depressing.

很多时候西方没能实现这些理想。但这些理想依然是指明灯。在20世纪90年代初，这些理想也是很多俄罗斯人心中的指明灯。作为一个非常赞赏俄罗斯文化和俄罗斯人勇气的人，我（也许是一厢情愿地）希望这个国家能够从崩塌的意识形态、国家和帝国的废墟中找到一条出路。我知道这很困难。我希望俄罗斯选择西方价值观，并不只是为了我们，也是为了俄罗斯本身。否则俄罗斯继续处在循环往复的专制统治下太令人沮丧了。

With the selection of Mr Putin, a former KGB colonel, as his successor, Boris Yeltsin delivered that outcome. The president may, for now, be a popular despot. But a despot he is. He is also heir to the project of Yuri Andropov, former KGB head and Soviet leader, for a modernised autocracy. As a loyal servant of the state, he believes results alone matter. Lies are just another tool of statecraft. Only the wilfully blind could fail to see that evident truth in recent months.

鲍里斯•叶利钦(Boris Yeltsin)选择前克格勃(KGB)上校普京作为继任者，促成了这个结果。普京现在来看或许是个受欢迎的专制者。但他依然是专制者。他同时也继承了前克格勃和苏联领导人尤里•安德罗波夫(Yuri Andropov)建立现代化独裁政体的计划。作为国家的忠实仆人，普京相信结果是唯一重要的事物。谎言只不过是另一种治国之术。只有故意视而不见的人才看不到最近数月展露出的显而易见的真实。

The west is partly responsible for this tragic outcome. It failed to offer the support Russia needed quickly enough in the early 1990s. Instead it focused, ludicrously, on who would pay the Soviet debt. It acquiesced in the larceny of Russian wealth for the benefit of a few.

西方对这个悲剧性的结果负有部分责任。西方没能以足够快的速度在20世纪90年代早期提供俄罗斯所需的支持。相反，西方采取了荒谬的行动，纠结于谁来偿还苏联的债务。为了少数人的利益，西方还默许了窃取俄罗斯财富的行为。

But more important was the refusal of Russia’s elite to address the reasons for the collapse, then to start afresh. Only by confronting the reality of Stalin’s monstrous machinery of oppression and lies could they build something new.

但更重要的是，俄罗斯的精英拒绝直面苏联解体的原因并从头开始。只有正视斯大林(Stalin)骇人听闻的压迫和谎言体系，他们才能建立一些全新的东西。

The nation that has emerged was always the likely outcome. It sees itself as surrounded by enemies. Foreign relations are zero sum; success for others is a failure for Russia. In this view, a prosperous and democratic Ukraine, if achieved (a remote possibility, I agree), is a nightmare. For Moscow’s elites preventing that is, as Mr Karaganov puts it, “a struggle to stop others expanding their sphere of control into territories they believe are vital to Russia’s survival”. And who is it that, allegedly, threatens Russia’s survival? It is a west that is “weaker than many imagine”. Such a feeble west plays the part of bogeyman.

唯一可能的结果永远是现在出现的这个国家。它认为自己被敌人包围。对外关系是零和游戏；其他人的成功就是俄罗斯的失败。按照这种观点，乌克兰如果能成为一个繁荣和民主的国家（我也认为其希望渺茫），对俄罗斯来说是一个噩梦。如卡拉加诺夫所言，对俄罗斯精英来说，阻止这一点“是一场斗争，为的是阻止他人将势力范围扩展到他们心目中对俄罗斯的存续至关重要的区域”。那么在他们眼中，谁在威胁俄罗斯的存续？是“比许多人想象中更弱”的西方。这样一个孱弱的西方扮演着骇人的妖怪。

Viewed from Moscow, western policy is the politics of Versailles. In fact, the western position is based on two simple principles: first, a country is entitled to make its own choices; second, borders may not be changed by force. Russia rejects both of them. It is because its former satellites and dependencies were rightly confident that Russia would not accept these principles that they have been so keen to join Nato. The military alliance did not have to force them to join. They begged to do so. Maybe they understand how broad is Russia’s understanding of its “vital interest” and how ruthless it is in protecting them.

从莫斯科的观点来看，西方的政策属于凡尔赛政治。实际上，西方的立场基于两条简单的原则：首先，一个国家有权做出自己的抉择；其次，边界不应靠武力改变。这两条原则俄罗斯都拒绝接受。俄罗斯以前的卫星国和附属国正确地认定俄罗斯不会接受这些原则，正因如此，它们如此热切地加入北约(Nato)。北约根本无需强迫它们加入，是它们恳求加入这个军事同盟。或许它们知道俄罗斯对“关键利益”的理解有多么宽泛，在维护其“关键利益”时又是多么冷酷无情。

At times the outlook among Russia’s elites borders on parody. One reason many in Moscow believe that a political union with Europe is impossible is that Europe is abandoning Christianity and “traditional” norms – for which read acceptance of homosexuality. But I, at least, remember that the Soviet Union whose disappearance Mr Putin bewails persecuted Christianity mercilessly. One might remember, too, that Russia’s elite love this western den of iniquity.

有时，俄罗斯精英的观点近乎拙劣的模仿。莫斯科的许多人认为与欧洲结成政治联盟是不可能的，原因之一就是欧洲抛弃了基督教和“传统”准则——也就是接受同性恋。但我至少还记得其消亡为普京所哀悼的苏联曾如何残酷无情地迫害基督教。有人或许还记得，俄罗斯精英是多么热爱西方这个罪恶之窟。

“I bully; therefore I am.” That appears to be the motto behind some of the president’s outbursts. But they are no less serious for being absurd. The west is not a threat to Russia. On the contrary, the west knows very well it has a vital interest in good relations with the country. But it is not so easy to ignore an invasion and, yes, that is what it is, however much one might dislike the word. At the same time, an adversarial relationship with a power as important and potentially helpful as Russia is grim.

“我欺凌故我在。”这似乎是俄罗斯总统的一些突然发作背后的格言。这些行为尽管荒谬，但普京采取它们时颇为严肃。然而西方并不是俄罗斯的威胁。相反，西方非常清楚与俄罗斯保持良好关系符合西方的关键利益。但要忽略俄罗斯的侵略并不是那么容易。没错，不管有些人多么不喜欢这个词，的确是侵略。同时，与俄罗斯这样可能颇有用处的重要国家交恶令人忧虑。

Is there a solution to this quandary? All possibilities – further sanctions, massive economic and possibly military assistance to Ukraine or doing nothing at all – carry risks. But the west has to start from an honest reckoning of the Russia it now has to live with. Today’s Russia feels it is the victim of a historic injustice and rejects core western values. It also feels strong enough to act. Today’s Russian leader also sees these potent emotions as a way to secure power. He is not the first such ruler. His Russia is a perilous neighbour. The west must shed its last post-cold war illusions.

有没有方法解决这个困境？所有的可能方案——进一步制裁、为乌克兰提供大规模经济支援（可能还包括军事支持），或者什么也不做——都有风险。但是西方首先必须诚实地估判现在必须与之共存的这个俄罗斯。当今的俄罗斯认为它是历史不公正的受害者，拒绝接受西方核心价值观。它还认为自己足够强大因此能采取行动。当今的俄罗斯领导人还发现可以利用这些强烈的情感巩固权力。他并不是第一个这样做的统治者。普京治下的俄罗斯是个危险的邻居。西方必须抛弃冷战后的最后幻觉。