杜特尔特与美中玩“猫鼠游戏”

When Donald Trump recently invited Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to the White House, he signalled that he would take a different stance on relations with Manila from his predecessor, turning the page on a rocky period for two allies.

当唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)最近邀请菲律宾总统罗德里戈?杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)访问白宫时，他示意自己将对与马尼拉的关系采取较前任不同的立场，翻过这两个盟国关系动荡的一页。

Mr Duterte last year called Barack Obama a “son of a whore”. Yet the White House described his call with Mr Trump as “very friendly” and said the two countries’ alliance was “now heading in a very positive direction”.

杜特尔特去年曾称巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)是“妓女的儿子”。而据白宫描述，杜特尔特与特朗普的通话“非常友好”，并表示两国同盟“正朝着非常积极的方向迈进”。

Democrats and some Republicans accused Mr Trump of ignoring concerns about claims of extrajudicial killings in Mr Duterte’s war on drugs. Those concerns were heightened a few days later, when Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, told US diplomats that “in some circumstances if you condition our national security efforts on someone adopting our values, we probably can’t achieve our national security goals”.

有人称杜特尔特的反毒战争中存在法外处决，这种说法引发了关切，民主党人和部分共和党人曾指责特朗普无视这些关切。过了几天，这些关切进一步加剧，美国国务卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)对美外交官表示，“在某些情况下，如果你将某人接受我们的价值观定为我们国家安全努力的前提条件，那么我们很可能无法实现我们的国家安全目标”。

Mr Tillerson was not referring specifically to the Philippines, but his comments came as Manila is improving its ties with China after years of tension over the South China Sea. The latest evidence of a shift came last week when the Chinese navy made their first port call to the nation in years and Mr Duterte said he was open to holding joint exercises with the Chinese military.

蒂勒森并不是在特指菲律宾，但他在发表上述言论时，马尼拉正在改善与中国的关系。此前，菲中两国因南中国海问题多年关系紧张。上周，中国海军多年来首次访问菲律宾港口，杜特尔特还表示他对与中国军方举行联合演习持开放态度，这是两国关系转变的最新证据。

“It is definitely a shift and it takes some getting used to,” said a US official. “But?.?.?.?we think it is important for our own interests in the region for the Philippines to have good relations with China.”

一名美国官员表示：“这绝对是种转变，需要一些时间去适应。但……我们认为，菲律宾与中国的友好关系对我们自身在该地区的利益也很重要。”

The official said the US has maintained “very close security co-operation” with Manila even under Mr Duterte. The official added that while the Chinese ship visit was a “little more sensitive,” Washington was not that concerned about one joint exercise, although “if it was a signal of long-term change we might be worried”.

这名官员表示，即使在杜特尔特执政期间，美国与马尼拉方面也保持着“非常密切的安全合作”。他还表示，虽然中国军舰的造访“有点敏感”，但华盛顿对联合军演并不感到关切，不过“如果这是长期变化的信号，我们可能会担心”。

Since coming to power, Mr Duterte has accused the US of treating its former colony like a dog, ordered that joint military exercises with the US be scaled back, and announced a “separation” from Washington. At the same time, he has offered little resistance to Chinese activities in the South China Sea, despite a ruling in Manila’s favour by an international court last year.

自上台以来，杜特尔特一直指责美国对待自己的前殖民地像对狗一样，并下令缩减与美国联合军演的规模，宣布与华盛顿方面“分道扬镳”。与此同时，他对中国在南中国海的活动几乎毫不反抗，尽管去年一个国际仲裁庭在这个问题上作出了有利于马尼拉方面的裁决。

But Manila has not repudiated its 1951 mutual defence pact with the US or a visiting forces agreement between the nations. Delfin Lorenzana, the Philippines defence secretary, has stressed the importance of the alliance — in much the same way that James Mattis, the US defence secretary, has assuaged concerns among US allies around the world about Mr Trump’s words.

但马尼拉方面没有拒绝遵守1951年与美国缔结的《联防条约》，也没有拒绝遵守两国之间的《访问部队协议》。菲国防部长德尔芬?洛伦扎纳(Delfin Lorenzana)强调了两国同盟的重要性，美国国防部长詹姆斯?马蒂斯(James Mattis)也用同样的态度缓解了世界各地的美国盟友对特朗普言论的担忧。

Ernie Bower, president of Bower Group Asia, a consultancy that focuses on Southeast Asia, said Mr Duterte understood the dangers of veering too far from the US and was conscious that his own military wanted strong US ties. He said Mr Duterte was playing a “careful cat and mouse game” to keep Washington on side as he engages with Beijing.

东南亚问题咨询公司Bower Group Asia的总裁欧内斯特?鲍尔(Ernest Bower)表示，杜特尔特知道太过疏远美国的危险，也意识到菲军方想与美国保持紧密联系。鲍尔表示，杜特尔特正在玩一场“谨慎的猫鼠游戏”，在与北京方面接触同时也保持与华盛顿方面的同盟关系。

“Duterte has softened a little and used the US election to come back in with America a bit,” said Mr Bower. “While his popularity is very high, people in the Philippines have very high anxiety over China. Duterte knows that if he goes too far he will see his popularity dip.”

“杜特尔特的态度软化了一点，并利用美国大选与美国重新走近了一点，”鲍尔表示，“他的支持率很高，但菲律宾人民在中国问题上忧心忡忡。杜特尔特知道如果他做得太过分，他的支持率会下降。”

Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, said the US-Philippines relationship was “strained” because of the stance Mr Duterte has taken towards the US and because of his controversial approach to the Philippines’ drug problem.

美国参议院外交关系委员会(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)民主党头号人物本?卡丁(Ben Cardin)表示，美菲关系“紧张”的原因，是杜特尔特对美国采取的立场以及他对菲律宾毒品问题的备受争议的处理方式。

“I am not so concerned about the relationship with China as I am with the relationship with the US. The language used against President Obama was very offensive,” said Mr Cardin, who has co-sponsored legislation to bar the US from giving equipment to the Philippines police, to try to urge Mr Duterte to stop human rights abuses.

卡丁表示：“与菲律宾同中国的关系相比，我更在意的是菲律宾同美国的关系。他对奥巴马总统使用的字眼非常无礼。”卡丁曾联合支持立法，禁止美国向菲律宾警方提供装备，试图敦促杜特尔特停止侵犯人权的做法。

During a visit to Washington last week, Enrique Manalo, the acting Philippines foreign minister, denied that the relationship was strained. “Our relations have been continuing in a very positive direction ever since the president [Duterte] came in,” he told the Financial Times.

在上周访问华盛顿期间，菲律宾代理外长恩里克?马纳洛(Enrique Manalo)否认美菲关系紧张。他告诉英国《金融时报》：“自总统（杜特尔特）上台以来，我们的关系正继续朝着非常积极的方向发展。”

Mr Manalo also played down the significance of the Chinese ship visit, saying the Philippines had “an open seas policy”, and suggested that there could be more on the horizon: “Well, it may not only be China. We had a Russian ship that visit us, the US ships, and I think even Japanese ships will be coming?.?.?.?We are trying to engage as many partners as we can on the basis of mutual benefit. I think there is really nothing unusual about that.”

马纳洛还淡化了中国军舰造访菲律宾港口的意义，他表示菲奉行“开放海洋政策”，还说未来可能会有更多类似的情况发生。“可能不仅仅是中国。俄罗斯的船也访问过我们，还有美国的船。我认为甚至连日本的船也会来……我们正努力在互利基础上与尽可能多的合作伙伴接触。我认为这其实没什么不同寻常的。”

Amy Searight, a Southeast Asia expert at CSIS and top Pentagon official during the Obama administration, said Mr Duterte’s team had been “very skilful” in managing the alliance despite his rhetoric. But while relations between Washington and Manila may be headed for smoother waters, she said his rhetoric has created broader regional damage.

美国战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)东南亚专家、曾在奥巴马政府任期内担任美国国防部高官的艾米?希尔莱特(Amy Searight)表示， 尽管杜特尔特发表了那样的言论，但其团队对菲美同盟的把握“很有技巧”。然而，尽管美菲关系可能正趋于缓和，但杜特尔特的言论给该地区造成了更广泛的损害。

“When Duterte says things like he does not think that the US would honour its commitment under the mutual defence treaty?.?.?.?or says things like there is no use fighting China because they will do what they will do, it sends a very damaging message to the region and the deterrence value of the alliance is hollowed out,” said Ms Searight.

希尔莱特表示：“当杜特尔特表示，他认为美国不会履行其在共同防御条约中许下的承诺时……或者当他表示与中国对抗无用、因为中国会该怎么做还怎么做时，都向该地区传递了一个非常具有破坏性的信息，同时让菲美同盟成了一个缺乏威慑的空架子。”