杜特尔特对西方秩序的挑战
In the past 30 years, a succession of Southeast Asian leaders was supposed to represent a new direction for regional geopolitics.
过去30年中，多位东南亚领导人相继被认为代表了该地区地缘政治的新方向。
First there was Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad. Then came Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia.
先是马来西亚的马哈蒂尔.穆罕默德(Mahathir Mohamad)，之后是泰国的他信.西那瓦(Thaksin Shinawatra)和印度尼西亚的苏西洛.班邦.尤多约诺(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)。
In the end, none was able to revamp the region and its relationship with the world.
到头来，没有一个人能改变该地区及其与世界的关系。
But Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines’ new president, may be the first Asian leader to ask the right questions about the future of the region.
但是菲律宾新总统罗德里戈.杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)或许是首位就该地区的未来提出正确问题的亚洲领导人。
He made headlines during a trip to Beijing last month by announcing his country’s separation from the US and a coming embrace with China.
杜特尔特上个月访问北京时宣布菲律宾与美国分离，未来将与中国建立紧密关系，他由此登上了头条新闻。
Then he went to Japan, where he called for American troops to leave the Philippines within two years and assured the Japanese that he was not pursuing a military alliance with China.
之后他在访问日本期间喊话美军在两年内撤出菲律宾，并向日本保证他不会寻求与中国建立军事同盟。
Those outside the region have expressed shock at Mr Duterte’s words, and have deemed him naive at best, dangerous at worst.
该地区以外的人对杜特尔特的话深表震惊，他们认为，说得好听些，他是天真，说得难听点，他很危险。
But this reveals an unwillingness to look beyond the western-led order, spearheaded by the US, as the natural state of things.
但是，这种看法本身就暴露出一种心态，除了以美国为首的西方主导的秩序，他们不愿把其他任何一种秩序看作自然的事物状态。
Mr Duterte is raising questions about who has power, how it is wielded and what self-determination would look like for smaller nations.
关于谁拥有权力、权力如何被使用以及自主对小国来说意味着什么，杜特尔特提出了一些问题。
Despite his penchant for blunt language, his different tack has already had results.
尽管他喜欢直言，但他截然不同的策略已经起到了效果。
Take the territorial dispute in the South China Sea.
以南中国海上的领土争端为例。
The administration of Benigno Aquino, Mr Duterte’s predecessor, rejected any compromise, arguing instead that history and legal precedent meant that it owned islands such as the Scarborough Shoal.
杜特尔特的前任、贝尼尼奥.阿基诺三世(Benigno Aquino III)政府拒绝任何妥协，认为历史和法律判例说明菲律宾拥有斯卡伯勒浅滩（Scarborough Shoal,中国称黄岩岛——译者注）等岛屿的主权。
China, unsurprisingly, claimed that history and legal precedent supported its own claims.
不出意料，中国声称历史和法律判例支持中方的领土主张。
As tensions increased, there was no evidence that Manila’s strategy was working, especially as the country aligned itself with the US, a prospect that is anathema to China.
随着局势日益紧张，当时没有迹象表明马尼拉方面的策略起到了作用，特别是菲律宾与美国站在一条线上引起了中国的反感。
By making his trip to Beijing, and eliciting a reciprocal great show of respect, Mr Duterte has done everyone a favour by cooling things down in the South China Sea.
通过出访北京、彼此间大张旗鼓地互示尊重，杜特尔特让南中国海的局势平静了下来，帮了所有人一个忙。
He also returned with billions of dollars in development aid and investment promises.
他还带回了数以十亿美元计的发展援助和投资承诺。
Last week, China quietly stopped blocking Filipino fishermen from accessing the Scarborough Shoal.
最近，中国悄然停止了阻止菲律宾渔民前往斯卡伯勒浅滩作业的行动。
If all it took was a few polite words and some common sense to defuse the situation, one wonders why no one thought to do it earlier.
如果想要缓和局势所需要的只是一些礼貌的言辞和常识的话，人们会纳闷之前为什么没人想到这么做。
Perhaps we can call this Asian-style diplomacy.
或许我们可以把这称为亚洲式外交。
China and the Philippines have a relationship far older than the Philippines’ relationship with the US, and one free of histories of colonialism.
中国与菲律宾的关系，要比菲律宾与美国的关系久远得多，也没有殖民历史。
China is also re-emerging as the economic and cultural centre of East Asia.
如今中国也正再次崛起为东亚的经济和文化中心。
We can even understand Mr Duterte’s attitude to China using the Asian concept of face.
我们甚至可以从脸面这个亚洲概念来理解杜特尔特对中国的态度。
By heralding Beijing as the focal point for a different economic, political and cultural order, Mr Duterte accorded it a lot of prestige.
通过宣传中国是一种不同的经济、政治和文化秩序的焦点，杜特尔特让中国大有面子。
And, in return, China is willing to support the new Filipino president, perhaps by receding from the issues that divide them.
反过来，中国愿意支持这位菲律宾新总统，或许会搁下使两国产生分歧的问题。
Many in the west — with their focus on credibility, rational interests and power as a zero-sum game — will always miss relationships based on prestige and mutual benefit.
西方很多人——他们注重可信性(credibility)、理性的利益和实力，当作一场零和游戏——始终不能理解建立在威望和互惠基础之上的外交关系。
The larger point is that the concept of Pax Americana is outdated.
从更广泛层面来说，美国治下的和平(Pax Americana)的概念已经过时。
The world is increasingly abandoning the view of the US as the sole (and self-appointed) protector of global peace and prosperity.
世界正在逐渐抛弃美国是全球和平和繁荣的唯一（和自封的）保护者的观点。
In fact, the idea that America should not be a world policeman resonates with large numbers of people in the US.
事实上，美国国内有很多人赞同美国不应该充当世界警察的观点。
The world may want other countries to share that responsibility with the US or, perhaps, to replace it.
世界可能希望有其他国家与美国共同承担责任，又或者取而代之。
Mr Duterte is the first in Asia to do something about it.
杜特尔特是亚洲第一个在这方面有所动作的领导人。
Just because the Philippines is turning away from an American-led order does not mean it is rejecting the west or the US.
菲律宾拒绝美国主导的秩序并不意味着它拒绝西方或美国。
Mr Duterte himself said that he is calling for a separation of foreign policy rather than a severance of ties.
杜特尔特本人称，他呼吁外交政策的分离而不是断绝关系。
Those who worry about Mr Duterte betray a belief that the Philippines and other Asian countries must choose between an affinity for the US and an affinity for China — and not, as perhaps would be best, express their self-determination by finding some affinity with both.
那些对杜特尔特感到忧心忡忡的人，透露出一种观念，即菲律宾及其他亚洲国家必须在亲美和亲华之间做出选择，不能——这或许最好——通过找到既亲美又亲华的立场来表达他们的独立自主。
Since Mr Duterte’s visit to Beijing, one must assume that other Asian leaders are watching closely to see where he takes his country and the region.
杜特尔特访华后，人们必然会想其他亚洲领导人正在密切关注他将把菲律宾和整个地区带向哪里。
His views on self-determination are shared by many who are resentful of being subservient in the hegemonic geopolitical system but have believed until now that they are helpless.
许多人痛恨自己在霸权主义的地缘政治体系中矮人一截，但一直以来都感到无能为力，他们认同杜特尔特关于独立自主的观点。
The world order will change further as more leaders make the same choices as Mr Duterte.
随着更多领导人做出像杜特尔特一样的选择，世界秩序将进一步改变。
Those used to the status quo should get used to it.
习惯于现状的人应该适应这一点。
