让亚洲引领全球贸易

Rising protectionist sentiment in the West and a dramatic decline in global trade since 2011 have led many to speculate that Asia’s era of export-led growth will end soon. This speculation is overdone. While the slowdown in trade does demand responses, Asia is well positioned to be a bulwark against protectionism. In fact, it can lead global trade in the years to come.

西方的保护主义情绪不断上升，加上自2011年以来全球贸易大幅下降，导致许多人猜测，亚洲出口导向型增长的时代将很快结束。这个猜测言过其实了。虽然贸易放缓需要作出回应，但亚洲处于有利地位，能够成为抵制保护主义的堡垒。事实上，亚洲可以在未来多年引领全球贸易。

But, getting the responses right will require a clear understanding of the causes. Policy makers need to ask first what explains the export slowdown, and what this means for Asian economies. The story starts with the great recession in 2008, which left advanced countries stuck in low growth, low demand environments that have weighed heavily on Asia’s export-dominated economies.

但是，做出正确回应将需要清楚地了解贸易放缓的原因。政策制定者需要首先问一下，什么因素解释了出口增长放缓，以及这对亚洲经济体意味着什么？事情始于2008年的大衰退，那场衰退导致发达国家陷入低增长、低需求的环境，严重拖累了亚洲的出口主导型经济体。

In recent years, the problems of developed world economies have become entangled with China’s structural transformation, which has meant slower growth for Asia’s largest economy. Two trends accompanying China’s structural transformation have implications for Asian trade. One is its shift away from an export and investment-driven growth model toward domestic consumption and services. The other is China’s moving up the global value chain as wages rise.

近年来，发达经济体的问题又与中国的结构转型结合在一起，后者已导致亚洲最大经济体增长放缓。伴随中国结构转型的两个趋势对亚洲贸易产生影响。一是中国增长模式从出口和投资驱动转向国内消费和服务驱动。另一个是随着工资的上涨，中国正向全球价值链(GVC)的高端攀升。

These trends have reduced demand for imports from the rest of Asia. Fueled by expanding middle class consumers, China continues to import consumables from across Asia. But, imports of capital goods and raw materials have declined. Accordingly, the annual average growth of China’s total imports from developing Asia fell from 18.2 per cent in 2001-2010 to 4.7 per cent in 2011-2015.

这些趋势减少了中国对亚洲其他国家的进口需求。在日益扩大的中产阶层消费者的推动下，中国继续从亚洲各经济体进口消费品。但是，资本货物和原材料的进口减少了。相应地，中国从亚洲发展中国家的总进口的年均增长率由2001至2010年的18.2%，降到了2011至2015年的4.7%。

They have also reduced trade in parts and components, which contain higher value addition than simply assembling products. The ratio of China’s intermediate goods imports to manufactured exports fell from 63 per cent to about 38 per cent between 2000 and 2015.

这些趋势还减少了零部件的贸易，零部件相比简单装配产品具有更高的附加值。从2000到2015年，中国中间产品进口与制成品出口之比从63%降至约38%。

The good news is that these factors are either temporary, such as weak import demand from advanced markets, or can be overcome through smart policymaking that takes advantage of the region’s strengths.

好消息是，这些因素要么是暂时的——比如说发达市场的进口需求疲软——要么是可以通过发挥地区优势的明智政策来克服的。

Here are three ways Asia can take the lead in global trade.

亚洲可以通过三条途径引领全球贸易。

First, China’s economic rebalancing and moving up global value chains (GVCs) is opening up new trading opportunities for China itself. China’s production data confirm that the country is following the model of higher value added and building innovation capability seen first in Japan and subsequently in South Korea.

首先，中国的经济再平衡和在全球价值链中向高端攀升，为中国本身开启了新的贸易机会。中国的生产数据证实，该国正在追随首先在日本、后来在韩国见到的那种提高附加值和打造创新能力的模式。

This implies the development of more technologically sophisticated regional value chains and related services in East Asia that can propel a new phase of regional and global trade growth. The spread of robotics, advances in miniaturisation, developments in internet connectivity, process-centered research and development, and various organisational innovations are increasingly likely to feature in GVCs in this new phase of trade growth.

这暗示着，在东亚发展技术含量更高的区域价值链及相关服务，可以推动区域乃至全球贸易进入一个新的增长阶段。在这个新的贸易增长阶段，机器人的普及、微型化的进展、互联网连接的发展、以流程为中心的研发以及各种组织创新，越来越有可能在全球价值链上发挥重要作用。

Second, many developing economies are well positioned to benefit from China’s rebalancing. Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) face the prospect of replacing China in labor-intensive segments of GVCs, from clothing to consumer electronics. These Asian economies are increasingly open to export-oriented foreign direct investment and offer relatively low wages with reasonably good labor productivity.

其次，许多发展中经济体处于受益于中国再平衡的有利地位。从服装到消费电子产品，孟加拉国、印度、越南以及东盟(ASEAN)其他成员国面临着在全球价值链的劳动密集型环节取代中国的前景。这些亚洲经济体对出口导向的外商直接投资(FDI)越来越开放，并提供相对低廉的工资和相当高的劳动生产率。

Third, trade in services offers a new opportunity for many middle income countries in the region. Services constitute the largest sector in most economies in developing Asia, but they are rarely traded because of trade restrictions, skills gaps, and problems with internet connectivity.

第三，服务贸易为亚洲许多中等收入国家提供了新机遇。服务业是亚洲多数发展中经济体内最大的行业，但由于贸易限制、技能差距和互联网连接问题，目前服务贸易额很低。

Digital trade, professional and financial services, and GVC-related services are areas with potential for trade growth. Both China and India are likely to further expand their roles as exporters and importers of services. Asean and South Asian economies have opportunities to further develop tourism, including from markets in other regional economies, and other commercial services exports.

数字化贸易、专业及金融服务以及全球价值链相关服务是具有贸易增长潜力的领域。中国和印度都有可能进一步扩大它们作为服务出口国和进口国的角色。东盟和南亚经济体有机会进一步发展旅游业——包括针对其他区域经济体的市场——和其他商务服务的出口。

To capitalise on these opportunities, it is important that Asian countries continue to implement structural reform to upgrade skills, enhance finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, invest in seaports and other trade-related and digital infrastructure and reduce behind-the-border barriers such as cumbersome local government regulations and labor laws.

为了利用这些机会，重要的是亚洲国家要继续实施结构改革以升级技能，为中小企业拓宽融资渠道，投资海港和其他与贸易有关的、数字化的基础设施，并减少境内障碍，比如繁琐的地方政府法规和劳动法律。

Policy makers should resist protectionist pressures. Instead, they should liberalize goods and services trade by reducing import tariffs where possible and instituting better surveillance of non-tariff measures. The World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, which 19 economies in developing Asia have ratified to date, promises to reduce the region’s trade costs.

政策制定者应该抵制保护主义压力。相反，他们应该通过尽可能降低进口关税并加强监督非关税措施，实现商品和服务贸易的自由化。世界贸易组织(WTO)的《贸易便利化协定》(Trade Facilitation Agreement)——迄今已有19个亚洲发展中经济体批准了该协定——有望降低亚洲的贸易成本。

Large trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership can help generate market access for services and spread good regulatory has benefited greatly from trade in recent years. It should continue to implement the kinds of policies that will make it the leader in global trade.

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)等大型贸易协定，可以帮助达成服务的市场准入和推广优良的监管做法。近年亚洲从贸易受益匪浅。亚洲应继续实施各项明智政策，使其成为全球贸易的引领者。

Mr. Wignaraja is an adviser in ADB’s Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department. Mr. Zhuang is ADB’s Deputy Chief Economist.

加内山?维格纳拉杰是亚开行(ADB)经济研究与地区合作部顾问，庄巨忠是亚开行副首席经济学家