FT社评 亚洲消费者引领经济复苏

Not every corner of the global economy is mired in gloom.

并非全球经济的所有角落都沉浸在悲观气氛之中。

Asia is leading a gentle recovery in emerging market gross domestic product growth rates as India and some countries in Southeast Asia enjoy a surge in economic expansion.

亚洲正引领新兴市场国内生产总值(GDP)增速温和回升，印度和东南亚一些国家正经历经济的快速扩张。

Indonesia’s economy, the largest in the region, grew by 5.2 per cent in the second quarter of the year, recording the fastest year-on-year expansion for 10 quarters.

今年第二季度，东南亚最大经济体印尼的经济增长5.2%，为10个季度最快同比增速。

The Philippines also delivered a better than expected performance, growing by 7 per cent in the second quarter, the fastest pace for three years.

菲律宾的增长表现也好于预期，今年第二季度增长7%，为3年最快。

India, which ranks seventh after France in global GDP rankings, posted an official 7.9 per cent growth rate in the first quarter of the year, a sharp improvement on the previous quarter.

今年第一季度，在全球GDP排行榜上排在法国之后、名列第七的印度录得7.9%的官方增速，较上一个季度大有改善。

Such numbers have an importance that extends beyond the countries themselves.

这些数据的重要性超过了这些国家本身。

Not only do they reaffirm Asia’s position as by far the fastest-growing region of the world.

它们不仅再次确认了亚洲全球增长最快地区（以大差距领先于其他地区）的地位.

They also suggest that the average growth rate for emerging market economies — which include most Asian countries aside from Japan and Singapore — is set to outperform the average growth rate in developed economies by a wider margin.

还显示出，新兴市场经济体（包括除日本和新加坡之外的多数亚洲国家）的平均经济增速将以更大幅度超过发达经济体。

This may be important to portfolio investors who had turned cooler towards emerging markets over the past five years as they watched the growth differential between emerging and developed worlds narrow significantly.

这可能对证券投资者很重要，过去5年，他们对新兴市场态度转冷，因为他们目睹了新兴世界与发达世界的增长差距显著缩窄。

True, Asia’s recovery remains unlikely to replicate the heady days before the financial crisis.

确实，亚洲的复苏仍不太可能回到金融危机之前那个令人兴奋的年代。

A collapse in export earnings coupled with a fall in commodity prices and slackening demand from China has conspired to dampen activity.

出口利润下挫、再加上大宗商品价格下跌和中国需求疲软，共同导致了经济活力的减弱。

Nevertheless, there are signs that Asia is adapting to new realities by reducing its reliance on exports and stoking up the fires of consumer spending.

然而，有迹象显示，通过减少对出口的依赖以及刺激消费者支出，亚洲正在适应新的现实。

Capital Economics, a research company, sees some decoupling of trade and consumer spending, noting that across the region exports were barely positive in the second quarter but domestic demand grew at its fastest since the final quarter of 2012.

研究机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)认为，贸易和消费者支出有所脱钩，该机构指出，今年第二季度，亚洲出口勉强为正，但国内需求增速却为自2012年第四季度以来最快。

The splurge in consumer spending represents an opportunity for companies worldwide as middle class populations in India, China and Southeast Asia discover the delights of consumer credit to engage with their material dreams.

消费者支出飙升代表着全球公司的一个机遇——印度、中国和东南亚的中产阶级人群发现了利用消费信贷触摸物质梦的快乐。

Robust population growth, sharply rising incomes and an upsurge in purchases online make the Asia consumer phenomenon increasingly accessible to companies in Europe and the US.

强劲的人口增长、收入大幅增加以及在线购买量飙升，让越来越多的欧美公司得以从亚洲的消费热中分一杯羹。

However, such optimism is tinged with a concern that in some countries households are already spending well beyond their means — enticed by cheap credit as interest rates fall to historic lows.

然而，这种乐观情绪伴随着一种担忧：在一些国家，随着利率降至历史低点，受到廉价信贷吸引的家庭的支出已远远超出这些家庭的收入。

Capital Economics names South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia as places where middle class exuberance might be running over.

凯投宏观认为，在韩国、泰国和马来西亚这几个地方，中产阶级繁荣可能快要到头了。

The other big detractor from the emerging narrative of Asia as a locomotive for global growth is China.

亚洲作为全球增长火车头这一新兴趋势的另一个巨大不利因素是中国。

Although the world’s second-largest economy grew by 6.7 per cent in the second quarter, the quality of its growth is being scrutinised closely.

尽管这个全球第二大经济体在今年第二季度增长6.7%，但增长质量正受到密切审视。

With a corporate debt load equal to 171 per cent of GDP — a ratio more than double that of the US and Europe — Chinese companies are racking up huge nonperforming loans in the banking system as returns on investments dwindle.

公司债务与中国GDP之比为171%，是美国和欧洲的两倍多，因此，随着投资回报下降，中国公司正在银行体系中累积起巨额的不良贷款。

Before the crisis in 2008, China needed just $1 of credit to deliver $1 of GDP; that ratio is now six to one, says Morgan Stanley.

在2008年金融危机之前，中国仅需1块钱信贷就能创造一块钱的GDP；但摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，如今需要6块钱信贷才能创造1块钱的GDP。

Still, the improvement in headline growth for Asia should prompt optimism if not yet celebration in a world blighted by monetary exhaustion in Europe and Japan.

然而，在这个遭受欧洲和日本货币枯竭打击的世界中，亚洲整体增速的提高应会促使人们乐观起来，甚至开始庆祝。