全球经济复苏依然脆弱

Fragile world economy still on ‘life support’

全球经济复苏依然脆弱

The world economy “remains on life support” from central banks and has deteriorated since last autumn, the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index shows, despite some recent signs of stabilisation.

最新的布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)—英国《金融时报》追踪指标显示，世界经济“仍然依赖”各国央行来“维持生命”，并且自去年秋天以来世界经济状况有所恶化。

Weakness extends across the Group of 20 leading economies, according to the TIGER (Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery) index, but advanced economies have deteriorated more than developing countries.

全球经济复苏追踪指标(TIGER)显示，经济乏力的现象普遍存在于二十国集团(G20)领先经济体中，但发达经济体的恶化程度比发展中国家更加严重。

The index provides support for the message Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, sent last week that although there has been some improvement since the turn of the year, “the risks remain high, the situation fragile”.

这一指标支持了国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)上周发表的评论，即尽管从年初开始有一些好转，但“风险仍然很高，局面很脆弱”。

Although markets recovered significantly in the first quarter of the year as investors welcomed the European Central Bank’s injection of liquidity into the eurozone’s banks, the outlook for growth and jobs has become more precarious almost everywhere except in the US.

尽管随着投资者欢迎欧洲央行(ECB)向欧洲银行体系注入流动性，今年一季度市场显著复苏，但除了美国外，其他国家的经济增长和就业前景都变得更加不确定了。

Professor Eswar Prasad of the Brookings Institution said: “The global economic recovery is still sputtering due to a lack of robust demand, policy tools that are stretched to their limits and unable to muster much traction, and enormous risks posed by weak financial systems and political uncertainty.”

布鲁金斯学会的埃斯华•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)教授指出：“由于缺乏强劲的需求，且政策工具已经用足，无法施加更强的拉动，加上虚弱的金融体系和政治不确定性构成巨大风险，全球经济复苏仍然断断续续。”

The real economy component of the index has been hard hit as growth prospects in Europe, already fragile after the 2011 crisis, have been further undermined by brutal austerity plans in many countries. “This is stifling growth, worsening debt-to-GDP ratios in the short run, and generating an unsustainable political situation at the domestic and pan-European levels,” Prof Prasad said.

该指数的实体经济成分受到了欧洲经济增长前景的巨大打击，欧洲经济在2011年的危机后已经十分脆弱，许多国家实施的无情的财政紧缩方案又令其雪上加霜。普拉萨德教授说：“这会扼杀经济增长，在短期恶化债务与GDP的比值，在各国国内和整个欧洲的层面上造成不可持续的政治局面。”

The US recovery, by contrast has become more robust although it remains vulnerable to shocks and its growth remains modest.

与此形成反差的是，美国经济复苏已经变得更加强劲，尽管美国仍然易受冲击影响，而且经济增长有限。

But it is not just the advanced economies that are suffering. The growth outlook in emerging markets has also deteriorated with output falling short of expectations in all of the Bric countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. “The burden of sustaining world growth is taking a toll on emerging market economies,” Prof Prasad said.

状况不佳的并不仅限于发达经济体。新兴市场国家的增长前景也出现恶化，所有金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国）的经济产出均逊于预期。普拉萨德说：“维持全球增长的重担，正使新兴市场经济体付出代价。”