巴菲特:经济显示重大复苏迹象
【英文原文】
Buffett Says Economy Showing 'Significant' Signs Of Life
Warren Buffett, the chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the economy is showing significant signs of life for the first time, and pointed to recent results at the businesses under the Berkshire umbrella as evidence.
There is 'significant improvement' at Berkshire's industrial units, including Marmon and metalworking company Iscar, he said Sunday, expanding on comments he made a day earlier at his company's annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Neb.
Berkshire operations that provide luxury products such as its jewelry businesses or plane leaser NetJets are recovering, albeit off a 'very, very low base.' But the company's housing-related businesses, such as carpet maker Shaw or brick manufacturer Acme, have yet to recover.
'We're not seeing it in housing. But I don't want to see it in housing. I want to have a sustainable recovery' in the housing market and the homebuilding industry, he said, instead of the irrational building that provided the fuel for the last collapse in the housing market.
Mr. Buffett's pronouncements on the economy are studied by investors large and small, and the Berkshire units he's acquired over four decades give him a unique perspective on the health of the country. His firm listed about 80 operating companies in its latest annual report, and many send data for him to review weekly.
The firm has units that make paint, manufacture mobile homes, lease trucks, sell ice cream and operate power plants, giving the world's third-richest man a glimpse into all corners of the economy. Mr. Buffett began lamenting the poor sales at the units in late 2008, and has said previously that some businesses were forced to close plants and fire workers. The companies Berkshire owned at the end of that year employed about 10% fewer people 12 months later.
Now, Iscar and other Berkshire units are hiring again, Mr. Buffett said, adding that he expected U.S. unemployment would continue to fall as the economy improves.
'American business is improving, from everything I see now,' he said. 'At what rate unemployment will fall, I don't know, but it will fall.'
Berkshire on Saturday reported first-quarter profit of $3.6 billion, compared with a loss of $1.5 billion a year earlier, fueled by drastically improved investments, better underwriting results and a rise in income from its manufacturing, service and retailing operations.
【中文译文】
巴菲特：经济显示重大复苏迹象
伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)董事长兼首席执行长巴菲特(Warren Buffett)说，经济首次显示出重大复苏迹象，并以伯克希尔旗下各项业务近期的业绩为证。
巴菲特周日说，伯克希尔旗下Marmon和金属加工公司Iscar等实业类公司的业绩明显好转。这是详述了他一天前在内布拉斯加州奥马哈的公司年度股东大会上的话。
伯克希尔旗下的珠宝公司或飞机租赁公司NetJets等提供奢侈品的业务都出现复苏，不过基数非常低。但该公司与房产相关的业务，如地毯生产商Shaw或制砖商Acme还没有起色。
巴菲特说，我们尚未看到房市的复苏，但我想看到的不是这个。我想看到房地产市场和住宅建造行业的持续复苏，而不是推动房市此前崩溃的非理性建造活动。
大大小小的投资者都会仔细研究巴菲特对经济的论断。而他在四十余年时间里收购的归入伯克希尔旗下的众多子公司令他对美国经济状况有种独特的视角。伯克希尔最新的年度财报列出了80家自营公司，其中许多公司都会每周发送数据供巴菲特审阅。
伯克希尔旗下公司的业务涵盖油漆生产、活动房屋制造、卡车租赁、冰淇淋销售和发电厂运营等等，令这位身家全球第三的富豪得以了解经济的方方面面。2008年底，巴菲特开始叹息各个子公司销售不佳的情况，在那之前还说过一些公司被迫关闭工厂、解雇工人。伯克希尔旗下公司2008年底的雇员总人数在12个月后减少了约10%。
巴菲特说，现在Iscar和其他伯克希尔子公司再度开始增加人手，并表示他预计随着美国经济好转，失业率将继续下降。
巴菲特说，从我现在所见的情况看，美国商业正在好转。至于失业率会以何种速度下降，我不得而知，但肯定会下降。
伯克希尔周六公布一季度利润36亿美元，上年同期为亏损15亿美元，业绩大幅好转的原因是投资极大改善、承保业绩好转，以及制造、服务和零售业务收入增长。
