美国无暇他顾 世界会发生什么
The assault on the Iraqi city of Mosul that began this week underlines the fact that the next three months will be a perilous period in international politics.
本周开始的对伊拉克城市摩苏尔(Mosul)的攻击突出表明，未来三个月将是国际政治的一段危险时期。
Fighting is intensifying in the Middle East.
中东战火正越烧越旺。
Tensions are rising between Russia and the west.
俄罗斯和西方之间的紧张关系日益加剧。
And relations between China and its Asian neighbours are getting edgier.
中国与亚洲邻国之间的关系越来越紧张。
All this is happening while the US is diverted by the Trump-Clinton melodrama and the transition to a new president.
在发生这一切的同时，特朗普与希拉里的戏剧性选战和向新总统的过渡分散了美国的注意力。
For Russia and China — two countries that are openly unhappy with the US-dominated world order — a distracted America will look like an opportunity.
对于俄罗斯和中国这两个公开对美国主导的世界秩序表示不满的国家而言，一个分心的美国看起来将像是一个机会。
Both Moscow and Beijing regard Hillary Clinton with suspicion and believe that her probable arrival in the Oval Office would herald a more hawkish US foreign policy.
俄罗斯和中国都对希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)怀有疑心，认为她入主白宫椭圆形办公室(Oval Office)将预示美国会采取更强硬的外交政策，而希拉里入主白宫是大概率事件。
They may be tempted to act swiftly, before she has a chance to settle into the White House.
中俄或许会想要赶在希拉里有机会成为白宫主人之前，迅速采取行动。
A temporarily preoccupied America might not matter much in normal times.
在正常时期，一个暂时心不在焉的美国或许也关系不大。
But big and dangerous decisions are looming.
但是，重大而危险的决定近在咫尺。
In the Middle East, the bombardment of Aleppo by Russian and Syrian government forces has led to a near-breakdown in relations between Moscow and the west.
在中东，俄罗斯和叙利亚政府部队对阿勒颇(Aleppo)的轰炸，导致俄罗斯与西方的关系几近一拍两散。
Without a common diplomatic project to hold them together, the two sides may slide into outright confrontation in Syria.
若是没有一个共同的外交安排把双方聚拢在一起，它们或许会在叙利亚陷入公然对抗。
Further sanctions on Russia are in the offing and the west’s military options are also being reviewed.
西方正酝酿对俄罗斯施加进一步的制裁，也在评估军事选项。
President Vladimir Putin may calculate that a US administration that has refused to take military action against the Assad regime since 2011 is unlikely to reverse course in President Barack Obama’s last few months in office.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)或许是这样打算的：自2011年以来一直拒绝对叙利亚阿萨德(Assad)政权采取军事行动的奥巴马政府，不太可能在奥巴马的最后几个月任期里改弦易张。
But if the Russians push too hard, they could miscalculate and provoke an American reaction.
但是，如果俄罗斯人做得太过火，他们可能会失算，激得美国做出反应。
That is particularly the case because the Obama administration is angered by Russian cyber warfare, aimed at influencing the US presidential election.
眼下尤其如此，因为俄罗斯方面旨在影响美国总统选举的网络战惹恼了奥巴马政府。
Joe Biden, the vice-president, has already signalled that America intends to retaliate in cyber space.
美国副总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)表示，美国打算在网络空间对俄罗斯进行报复。
Even without a worsening of the situation in Syria, fighting in the Middle East will intensify in the coming weeks.
即便叙利亚局势并未恶化，中东战事在未来几周里也将加剧。
The Iraqi government, backed by the air power of a US-led coalition, has begun a major push to retake Mosul from Isis.
在美国领导的联军空中力量的支持下，伊拉克政府已发动了旨在从伊斯兰国(ISIS)手中夺回摩苏尔的大规模攻势。
With one eye on his legacy and another on the presidential election, Mr Obama would be delighted to notch up a significant victory against Isis in the coming weeks.
奥巴马一只眼睛盯着自己的遗产，另一个眼睛盯着总统选举，如果未来几周里能收获一场对ISIS的重大胜利，他将非常高兴。
Going on the offensive in Iraq, rather than Syria, is also more attractive for America because there is less chance of an accidental clash with the Russians.
在伊拉克而不是叙利亚的境内发动攻势，对美国也更具吸引力，因为与俄罗斯人发生意外冲突的机会较小。
A successful US-backed assault on Mosul could also counteract the impression of American weakness in the Middle East.
在美国支持下攻击摩苏尔的成功，可能也会抵消美国在中东的软弱印象。
But the comparisons between Mosul and Aleppo are also a warning.
但摩苏尔与阿勒颇之间的对比也是一个警告。
There are more than 1m civilians living in and around Mosul who could be caught up in the fighting.
摩苏尔城内及其周围居住的的平民超过100万，他们可能被困于战火之中。
The battle for the city could also lead to a clash between the Turkish and Iraqi governments, both nominally American allies.
攻打摩苏尔的战斗也可能导致土耳其和伊拉克政府之间发生冲突——名义上它们都是美国的盟国。
The Russians may also feel that the next few months offer an opportunity in eastern Europe and Ukraine, with the EU distracted by Brexit and the run-up to the French presidential election.
俄罗斯人或许还认为，眼下欧盟(EU)一门心思都在英国脱欧和法国即将举行的总统选举上，未来几个月在东欧和乌克兰也存在一个机会。
Moscow had hoped that, by now, the EU would have eased the economic sanctions that were imposed in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
莫斯科方面原本希望，到现在这时候，欧盟应该已经放松了于俄罗斯2014年吞并克里米亚之后对其施加的经济制裁。
Instead, the west has collectively strengthened its stance by moving more Nato troops into the Baltic states that border Russia.
结果西方反而集体强化了立场，将更多北约(Nato)部队派驻到与俄罗斯相邻的波罗的海国家。
In response, the Russians have moved nuclear-capable missiles into Kaliningrad, a Russian territorial enclave that lies between Lithuania and Poland.
作为回应，俄罗斯人已把可搭载核弹头的导弹部署到加里宁格勒(Kaliningrad)——这是一块位于立陶宛和波兰之间的俄罗斯飞地。
Russia’s nuclear posturing is clearly intended to unnerve but it is dangerous for all that.
俄罗斯的核态势显然是让想西方紧张，但尽管如此，这种态势也是危险的。
The Chinese government is more controlled and ambiguous in its belligerence than Moscow.
跟俄罗斯相比，中国政府的好战性更克制、更难以捉摸。
Nevertheless, Beijing’s actions in recent months have set the nerves of its neighbours on edge.
然而，北京最近几个月的行动令其邻国感到紧张。
The Chinese were enraged by an international tribunal’s ruling in July that Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are largely specious.
今年7月，一家国际仲裁庭做出裁决，认为中国对南中国海(South China Sea)的领土主张很大程度上站不住脚，这激怒了中国。
Since then the official media in Beijing has become ever more ferocious, berating and threatening otherwise friendly countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Australia for following America’s line on security issues.
自那时以来，中国的官方媒体措辞变得越来越激烈，谴责和威胁新加坡、韩国和澳大利亚等原本友好的国家在安全问题上追随美国的立场。
The Japanese say that they have seen a recent increase in Chinese activity in the disputed waters of the East China Sea.
日本人表示，他们看到中国近来在东中国海(East China Sea)争议水域中的活动有所增加。
Meanwhile nations in Southeast Asia are watching nervously to see if China follows up its island-building in the South China Sea with further actions.
同时，东南亚国家正在紧张地观察，继在南中国海造岛之后，中国是否还会接着采取进一步行动。
However the fact that the Philippines, which brought the legal action against China, is now tilting towards Beijing under Rodrigo Duterte, its new, anti-American president, may reduce China’s incentives to take military chances in the Pacific.
然而，曾对中国采取法律行动的菲律宾人，如今在反美的新总统罗德里戈•杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)的领导下正倒向北京，这一事实或许会降低中国在太平洋地区冒险采取军事行动的动机。
Why risk confrontation when politics and diplomacy are handing such a big prize to Beijing?
当政治和外交手段正在向北京方面奉上一份大礼时，何必还去冒对抗的风险呢？
As Mr Obama prepares to pack his bags in the White House, he may look back wryly at the foreign-policy goals that he set eight years ago.
当奥巴马准备收拾行李离开白宫时，他可能会皱着眉头回顾自己在8年前设定的外交政策目标。
There was to be a reset that would lead to better relations with Russia.
本应有一次将带来美俄关系改善的重置。
There would also be a new and closer working relationship with China.
还本应与中国形成新的、更紧密的合作关系。
And there would be an end to war in the Middle East.
中东战事本应结束。
None of those policies has come to fruition.
这些政策目标没有一条实现了。
Instead, Mr Obama will be fortunate if he can negotiate his last three months in office without presiding over a major international crisis.
相反，奥巴马如果能够顺利度过最后3个月任期、而无需主持一场重大国际危机，他就算走运的了。
