默克尔 欧盟不可或缺的领导人

There was something distinctly presidential about Angela Merkel’s European travels last week.

安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)上周的欧洲之旅颇有总统风采。

The German chancellor met 15 other EU leaders on a whistle-stop tour of the continent.

这位德国总理在旋风般访问欧洲大陆期间会晤了15名欧盟(EU)其他领导人。

It is the kind of speed-dating diplomacy that US presidents often undertake, as they build consensus and reassure allies.

这种速配式的外交活动是美国历届总统在凝聚共识和让盟友放心的时候经常会采取的方式。

Ms Merkel’s emergence as the de facto leader of the EU is controversial.

默克尔成为欧盟事实上的领导人是有争议的。

The Hungarians, Poles and Czechs are bitterly critical of her government’s policy on refugees.

匈牙利、波兰和捷克对默克尔政府的难民政策持强烈批评态度。

The Greeks accuse the Merkel government of driving their economy into the ground.

希腊谴责默克尔政府把希腊经济逼入绝境。

The French and the Italians bemoan Germany’s insistence on austerity.

法国和意大利则抱怨德国对财政紧缩政策的坚持。

Some Brits blame Ms Merkel for Brexit, arguing that she could have delivered a better deal on migration.

部分英国人把英国退欧的原因归咎于默克尔，声称她本来可以在移民问题上提供更有利于英国的安排。

Meanwhile, in Brussels there are grumbles that the German chancellor has pushed the European Commission to one side.

同时，在布鲁塞尔有人抱怨称，这位德国总理已把欧盟委员会(European Commission)推到一边。

Ms Merkel has undoubtedly made her share of mistakes, particularly over the refugee crisis.

默克尔无疑也犯过错误，尤其是在难民危机上。

But there is no other European leader with the authority and patience to forge the deals that are necessary to keep the EU together.

然而，要说达成必要的协议以确保欧盟团结，欧洲没有其他领导人有这样的权威和耐心。

And some kind of leadership is badly needed because the union faces at least six acute and interconnected problems.

而且，现在正是亟需某种领导力的时候，因为欧盟面临至少六个尖锐且相互关联的问题。

The first and newest is Brexit.

第一个、也是最新的问题是英国退欧。

The second is the euro.

第二个问题是欧元问题。

The third is refugees.

第三个问题是难民问题。

The fourth is Russia.

第四个问题是俄罗斯问题。

The fifth is the erosion of democratic values and practices in Hungary and Poland.

第五个问题是民主价值观和实践在匈牙利和波兰正受到侵蚀。

And the sixth is the rise of the political extremes across Europe.

第六个问题是全欧洲政治极端主义的抬头。

The chancellor appears minded to take Brexit slowly and carefully.

德国总理似乎对英国退欧抱着缓慢而谨慎的心态。

For the moment, her position seems likely to prevail over early French demands to force the pace.

就目前而言，她的立场似乎压倒了早些时候法国要求的快速了断。

But a long delay is also potentially problematic since it prolongs uncertainty and invites a backlash from hardliners in Britain and Brussels.

不过，拖延太久可能也会有问题，因为那会延长不确定性，并招致英国和欧盟强硬派的反弹。

Perhaps the most sensitive stop on Ms Merkel’s tour last week was Warsaw, where a nationalist and reactionary government stands accused of eroding the independence of the courts and the media.

默克尔上周欧洲之行中，最敏感的一站也许是对华沙的访问。民族主义倾向的、开历史倒车的波兰政府被指侵蚀法院和媒体的独立性。

On his recent trip to Warsaw, Barack Obama saw fit to issue a public rebuke to the Polish government. Ms Merkel did not emulate the US president, but there is no doubt about the depth of concern in Berlin over Poland and Hungary.

巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在最近的华沙之行中，不客气地对波兰政府进行了公开指责。默克尔没有效仿美国总统，但柏林方面对波兰和匈牙利的忧虑之深是毫无疑问的。

The problem is that the EU is meant simultaneously to be a community of values and a mechanism for managing the relations between member states.

问题在于，欧盟既代表一种价值观的共同体，又是一个管理成员国相互关系的机制。

If Germany exerts too much pressure on Poland and Hungary over internal political issues it may find that co-operation simply breaks down, making it all but impossible to find solutions to shared problems.

如果德国对波兰和匈牙利的内政问题施加太多压力，它可能发现合作干脆停摆，这会导致几乎不可能找到解决方案应对共同面对的问题。

Germany’s ability to forge a common EU approach to the migrant crisis is anyway massively complicated by the fact that the policies Ms Merkel adopted last summer are far more liberal than the union’s norm.

德国在难民危机上凝聚欧盟共同对策的能力，本来就被一个事实搞得极为复杂化，那就是默克尔去年夏天采取的政策比欧盟的惯例要自由化得多。

After accepting more than 1m refugees, Germany’s effort to impose a modicum of burden sharing on its partner members has caused a bitter backlash in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, where Ms Merkel is widely accused of endangering Europe’s security and culture.

在接收逾100万难民之后，德国要求其伙伴国分担少量负担的努力，在波兰、匈牙利和捷克引发了激烈反弹。在这些国家，人们普遍指责默克尔令欧洲的安全与文化陷入危险之中。

She was greeted by anti-refugee demonstrators in Prague last week.

上周，反对接收难民的示威者在布拉格迎接她的到访。

This tension between Germany and the central Europeans supplements the divisions between Berlin and southern European nations, created by the euro crisis.

德国与中欧国家关系紧张的同时，柏林方面因欧元危机与南欧国家产生分歧。

The euro’s problems could soon escalate, particularly if the International Monetary Fund decides, later this year, to end its participation in the bailout of Greece.

欧元问题可能很快就会升级——尤其是如果国际货币基金组织(IMF)在今年晚些时候决定不再参与纾困希腊的话。

That, in turn, could lead the Dutch and German parliaments to withdraw their support.

这进而可能导致荷兰和德国议会撤回对纾困希腊的支持。

The EU has always been able to surmount the many crises it has faced because the national leaders who gather at union summits in Brussels are ultimately all committed to finding compromises that make the system work.

欧盟过去一直能够战胜它面临的许多危机，原因是汇聚布鲁塞尔参加欧盟峰会的各国领导人归根结底都致力于找到令整个体系运转的妥协方案。

But if nationalist or anti-EU leaders win power in enough European countries, then the spirit of co-operation on which the EU depends may evaporate — and with it the EU itself.

然而，如果民族主义倾向或反欧盟的领导人在足够多的欧洲国家掌权，欧盟赖以生存发展的合作精神可能烟消云散——欧盟自身也可能不保。

Brexit is the most serious example of this process at work.

英国退欧是这一过程发挥作用的最严重例子。

But the EU faces a further series of trials-by-populism over the coming months.

然而，今后几个月欧盟还会遭遇一系列民粹主义挑战。

In October, a far-right candidate is quite likely to win the presidency of Austria.

今年10月，极右翼候选人很可能会赢得奥地利的总统选举。

Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, may be forced from office around the same time, and all the likely alternatives in Italy are Eurosceptics.

意大利总理马泰奥•伦齐(Matteo Renzi)也许会在差不多相同时间被迫卸任，而意大利所有可能的替代人选都是欧洲怀疑论者。

The challenges will keep coming in 2017, with national elections in the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and France, all of which are likely to see strong showings from Eurosceptic and far-right parties.

2017年，随着荷兰、捷克和法国举行全国选举，这样的挑战会继续降临，因为这些选举都很可能出现欧洲怀疑论和极右翼政党的强劲表现。

Even Germany is seeing the centre-ground of politics shrink as the problems of assimilating the migrants who arrived in the country last year become more evident.

即使是在德国，随着同化去年进入德国的难民的问题日益突出，政治中间立场的阵营也出现了收缩。

Meanwhile, Berlin has just estimated that another 300,000 refugees may arrive in 2016.

与此同时，柏林方面近日估计，2016年还会有30万难民进入德国。

The result is a surge in support for the nationalist and Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which is likely to do well in regional elections in the coming weeks.

其结果是民族主义和欧洲怀疑论政党——德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)人气飙升，该党很可能在今后几周的地区选举中表现不错。

Much of Ms Merkel’s authority in Europe stems from her command of politics in Germany.

默克尔在欧洲的很大一部分权威源自她对德国政坛的掌控。

A chancellor who is losing her magic touch at home will find it harder to act as the de facto leader of the continent.

在国内正失去魔力的德国总理，会发现自己更难扮演欧洲大陆事实上的领导人。

Many European governments harbour resentment against Ms Merkel.

欧洲许多国家的政府怀有对默克尔的憎恨。

But they will miss her ability to keep Europe together when she finally falls.

不过，一旦默克尔最终失势，它们将怀念她保持欧洲团结的能力。