默克尔下台将导致欧洲解体

It is more accurate to call it panic than plotting. This week I spent time in the company of members of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party. Startlingly for an outsider, the conversations turned on whether the German chancellor would survive the refugee crisis. Some thought she had just weeks to turn things around. Never mind that only yesterday she had towered above any other European leader. Overnight, the unthinkable has become the plausible — for some in her party, the probable.

这事与其说是阴谋，不如说是恐慌。上周我与安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)所在的基民盟(Christian Democrat)的一些党员作了一番交谈。对局外人来说令人震惊的是，话题转向了德国总理是否撑得过难民危机。一些人认为她只有数周时间来扭转局面。且不谈她的威望直到最近还远远高于欧洲其他领导人。一夜之间，难以置信的事似乎变得合情合理——对于其党内某些人来说，甚至是很可能发生的事。

Other voices say the fever will subside, but Ms Merkel’s vulnerability speaks to the convulsions across Europe caused by the tide of refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Maghreb and Sahel countries of Africa. In the eastern, post-communist part of the continent, the influx has strengthened the hands of the ethnic nationalists who never quite signed up to the idea of liberal democracy. To the west it has bolstered the fortunes of nativists such as Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France. Rallies of the far-right Pegida party in Germany now feature speakers who lament the loss of concentration camps. If Britain’s David Cameron loses his referendum to keep Britain in the EU it will be because emotions over migration trump economic self-interest.

其他人表示这波热度会消退，但是默克尔的脆弱地位反映了席卷整个欧洲的动荡，其起因是来自叙利亚、伊拉克、阿富汗以及非洲马格里布（Maghreb，马格里布是历史上对北非地区阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和突尼斯的统称，大马格里布除上述三国外还包括毛里塔尼亚和利比亚——译者注）和萨赫勒（Sahel，非洲撒哈拉沙漠和苏丹草原地区之间一条横跨多个国家的地带——译者注）等国的难民潮。在东欧的前共产党统治国家，难民的涌入加强了族群民族主义者的气势，这些人本来就从未接受自由民主的观念。在西欧，难民潮助长了诸如法国马琳勒庞(Marine Le Pen)领导的国民阵线(National Front)等本土主义者的人气。德国极右翼党派“爱国欧洲人反对西方伊斯兰化”(Pegida)如今竟然有演讲者在集会上哀叹集中营不复存在。如果英国的戴维愠蕓伦(David Cameron)输掉了让英国继续留在欧盟(EU)的公投，那将是因为人们对移民的情绪压倒了经济利益考量。

Ms Merkel has rarely been called a conviction politician. Her longevity in office has resided in her skill in finding the natural point of balance in the German national mood; and, it should be said, her ruthlessness in despatching potential rivals. The adjectives most often applied to her leadership style, sometimes with more than a note of frustration, have been cautious, deliberative and consensual.

默克尔很少被称为是具有坚定信念的政治人物。她在位之所以长久，在于她有本事把握德国国民情绪的自然平衡点；同时也应该说，在于她打发潜在竞争对手的冷酷无情。在描述其领导风格时最常用的几个形容词是谨慎、深思熟虑和重视共识——有时人们会带着相当受挫的语气这么形容她的风格。

“Mutti” (mum) Merkel, as she is often called, has succeeded by assuring her compatriots that she will shelter Germany from the fires raging beyond its borders. They need not worry about the detail of policy. Germans can be sure she will be firm but calm in standing up to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and, though committed to the future of the euro, will be a careful guardian of the nation’s finances. For a decade, Germans have taken her on trust.

常被称为“妈妈”的默克尔，以向其国民保证她将使德国不受境外种种危机的影响而取得成功。人们不需要担心政策细节。德国人可以确信，默克尔将坚定而沉着地面对俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)，同时，尽管她心系欧元的未来，但她也会谨慎守护德国的财政。10年来，德国人已经不加深究地信任于她。

She has displayed the same skills in Europe. Those who have watched her operate at summits of EU leaders have marvelled at her informal consensus-building. A conversation over the shoulder with this prime minister, a deal sealed over a snatched cup of coffee with that president, a friendly pat on the shoulder for officials seeking common ground. Ms Merkel has always pressed the German interest, but in a manner of compromise over confrontation.

她在欧洲施展了同样的技巧。那些曾目睹她在欧盟领导人峰会上展露风采的人，惊叹于她以非正式方式凝聚共识的能力。与这位总理悄悄交谈，与那位总统在喝咖啡的功夫敲定一份协议，友好地拍一下正在寻找共同点的官员们的肩膀。默克尔总是在推进德国的利益，但她采用的是妥协（而非对抗）风格。