英国财政部 脱欧将导致逾50万岗位流失

Britain faces the loss of more than half a million jobs if it votes to leave the EU, according to a bleak analysis of the short-term economic shock of a Brexit vote to be published on Monday by the Treasury.

英国财政部(Treasury)一份将在周一发表的对英国脱欧短期经济冲击的悲观分析报告显示，如果英国投票脱离欧盟(EU)，它将面临逾50万工作岗位的流失。

Ahead of the release of the report, Sajid Javid, the business secretary, said there would be a “immediate and profound economic shock” and warned the economy would contract by 3.6 per cent after two years and house prices would be 10 per cent lower than they would have been otherwise.

英国商业大臣萨吉德•贾伟德(Sajid Javid)在报告发布前表示，英国脱欧会产生“立即而深远的经济冲击”。他还警告称，两年后英国经济或将萎缩3.6%，房价或将比原本可能处在的水平低10%。

But speaking on the BBC Today programme, Mr Javid said “most worryingly of all [the Treasury predicts] a loss of over 500,000 jobs”.

不过，在英国广播公司(BBC)的《今日》(Today)节目上，贾伟德表示“（财政部的预测中）最令人担心的是逾50万个工作岗位的流失”。

David Cameron and George Osborne hope the Treasury warning of an immediate hit to jobs, interest rates and house prices will be the clinching argument for undecided voters as the EU referendum campaign enters its final month.

戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)和乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)希望，在英国脱欧公投进入最后一个月之际，财政部有关脱欧对工作岗位、利率和房价即刻造成的打击的警告，会成为说服仍悬而未决的选民的决定性理由。

The Treasury analysis suggests that growth could be 3.6 per cent lower after two years if Britain votes to leave the EU, compared with the forecast for continued growth after a vote to remain. This would produce a recession similar to that of the early 1990s but not as bad as the one that followed the 2008 crash.

财政部的这一分析暗示，如果英国投票脱离欧盟，两年后其增长率或为下跌3.6%。相比之下，如果投票结果是留在欧盟，预计英国经济会继续增长。这一跌幅导致的衰退与上世纪90年代初类似，不过却没有2008年危机后的衰退那么糟。

Leave campaigners will point to the large margin of error implicit in the Treasury’s economic model, which claims that the economy could be 6 per cent lower than the current forecast under a worst-case scenario.

英国脱欧的支持者则提到，财政部的经济模型隐含着巨大的误差幅度，该模型声称最坏情况下英国经济会比目前的预测低6%。

Iain Duncan Smith said: “The Treasury has consistently got its predictions wrong in the past. This Treasury document is not an honest assessment but a deeply biased view of the future and it should not be believed by anyone.”

伊恩•邓肯•史密斯(Iain Duncan Smith)表示：“过去财政部在其预测上一贯出错。这份财政部文件并不是一份诚实的评估，而是一种对未来有极大偏见的看法，任何人都不该相信它。”

The Treasury “short-term shock” paper is its second and final piece of analysis on Brexit before the June 23 EU referendum and is seen by Mr Osborne’s allies as likely to have the most impact on voters.

这份财政部的“短期冲击”文件是6月23日英国脱欧公投以前，财政部对脱欧的第二份分析文件，也是最后一份。奥斯本的盟友认为，它可能会对选民产生最大影响。