如果英国选择脱离欧盟 退欧将撕裂英国

There are two unions whose fortunes rest on the outcome of the June 23 referendum. If Britain chooses Brexit the consequences will be serious, though probably not terminal, for the 27 remaining members of Europe’s union. Germany and France are doubtless thinking hard about how best to underscore the cohesion of the rest of the EU. The second union — that of the nations of the United Kingdom — would be at greater risk from the centrifugal forces of a Leave vote.

6月23日公投的结果将决定两个联盟的命运。如果英国选择脱离欧盟，对于欧盟(EU)其余27个成员国而言，后果将很严重，尽管很可能并非致命。德国和法国无疑正在努力思考，如何最好地强调欧盟其他成员国的团结。第二个联盟——组成联合王国的国家之间的联盟——将更有可能感受到脱离投票的离心力。

The Outs have become the voice of strident English nationalism. The Conservative-led Leave campaign has all but abandoned the considered case for quitting the EU to throw in its lot with the populists of Nigel Farage’s UK Independence party. The shared message is anti-immigrant, anti-establishment, anti-intellectual and anti-just about anything you care to think of. Call it project anger.

退欧已成为强硬英格兰民族主义的声音。某些保守党人士领导的退欧运动(Leave campaign)基本上放弃了深思熟虑地阐述退出欧盟的理由，而是跟奈杰尔•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)领导的英国独立党(UKIP)的民粹主义者抱成一团。两者传递的共同信息是反移民、反体制、反智主义，反对你想得起来的任何事物。不妨称之为“愤怒项目”。

Whatever the overall outcome, the nations and regions of the UK will not vote as one. A glance at the geography of British opinion suggests that three areas are all but certain to back maintaining the present relationship with Europe. London, Northern Ireland and Scotland all show clear pro-European majorities. Wales is harder to call.

无论总体投票结果怎么样，组成联合王国的国家和地区将呈现不同的投票倾向。英国民意的地理分布表明，有三个地区几乎肯定会赞同维持与欧盟的关系现状。在伦敦、北爱尔兰和苏格兰，亲欧派明显占主导立场。威尔士则较难预测。

London’s continental tilt is one of self-description. The capital has thrived as a global city, welcoming workers and migrants from across Europe and the world. London is France’s sixth-largest city, welcoming up to 300,000 French citizens. It offers a second — and sometimes a first — home to Italians, Poles, Spanish, Portuguese and many others, as well as to those arriving from more distant shores.

伦敦的大陆倾向从其自我描述就可看出。这座首都作为一个全球城市而蓬勃发展，欢迎来自欧洲乃至世界的工作者和移民。伦敦容纳了多达30万的法国公民，堪称法国第六大城市。对于意大利人、波兰人、西班牙人、葡萄牙人以及那些来自更遥远地方的人而言，伦敦是他们的第二（有时是第一）故乡。

The city is comfortable in its diversity. The recent mayoral election saw the Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith wage a shamefully Islamophobic campaign. Londoners turned out in record numbers to back Sadiq Khan, a British-born Muslim.

这座城市对自己的多元化感到自在。在不久前的市长选举中，保守党候选人扎克•戈德史密斯(Zac Goldsmith)发起了一场可耻的仇视伊斯兰运动。结果，伦敦人对在英国出生的穆斯林候选人萨迪克•汗(Sadiq Khan)的支持票数创下纪录。

The capital has none of the self-consciously starched Englishness of the affluent, Brexit-leaning home counties. And though London includes pockets of considerable poverty, they lack the ethnic grievance apparent in the poor towns dotted along southern England’s eastern coast. My guess is that, confronted with the choice, most Londoners would apply visa controls to visitors from its native (mostly white) hinterlands before shutting off the flow of Polish doctors and Indian engineers.

这座首都没有富足、倾向脱欧的周边各郡那种自己觉得了不起的英格兰人意识。尽管伦敦也存在一些局部的贫穷地段，但这里的人们没有英格兰南方的东海岸贫穷城镇里那种明显的种族怨恨。我猜，要是有选择，大多数伦敦人将宁愿对来自英格兰乡下的主要是白人的游客实施签证控制，而不是对波兰医生和印度工程师关上大门。

Northern Ireland, where recent polls have pointed towards a big majority in favour of Remain, has different concerns. As for many things, Europe is viewed through at least two sets of lenses. Broadly speaking, the Catholic, mainly nationalist community is overwhelmingly European in its outlook. Protestant unionists are more evenly divided, with polls suggesting a bias towards Brexit. Overall, the province will vote to remain.

北爱尔兰有着不同的关切。最近的民意调查显示，这里的绝大多数人赞同留在欧盟。就像在许多事情上一样，北爱尔兰人至少透过两个透镜看待欧洲。基本上，以爱尔兰民族主义者为主的天主教人群在观念上是强烈倾向于欧洲的。支持联合王国统一的新教人群的立场则比较分化，民意调查似乎表明支持脱欧的倾向。整体而言，北爱尔兰将投票支持留在欧盟。

A UK-wide vote to sunder ties with Brussels would destabilise a part of the UK still bearing the scars of sectarian violence. Shared membership of the EU was integral to the success of the British and Irish governments in coaxing nationalists and unionists towards peace. Rising prosperity in the north has been built on an open border with the Republic and, of course, on generous grants and investment incentives from Brussels.

如果整个联合王国的投票结果是切断与布鲁塞尔的关系，将给英国的一个宗派暴力伤疤仍未痊愈的地区带来不稳定。英国和爱尔兰都是欧盟成员国，对于两国政府成功地劝服民族主义者和统一阵营双方向和平努力，这是必不可少的因素。北爱尔兰地区不断繁荣发展，是建立在与爱尔兰共和国开放边境基础上的，当然还有欧盟的慷慨拨款和投资激励。

Brexit would transform an invisible frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic into the external border between the UK and the EU. The UK’s departure from the single market and the imposition of immigration curbs would require the return of cross-border checks on people and trade. And should Scotland press again for independence, how long would it be before the English began to see Northern Ireland as an unwelcome economic burden? This is the sort of reasoning that has persuaded the government of Gibraltar to throw its weight behind the pro-European side.

如果英国脱离欧盟，北爱尔兰和爱尔兰共和国之间看不见的国界，将成为英国与欧盟之间的外部边界。英国脱离单一市场并实施移民控制，将意味着恢复人员和贸易的跨境检查。苏格兰应该再次推动独立吗？英格兰人什么时候会开始把北爱尔兰视为一个不受欢迎的经济负担？正是这种推理劝服了直布罗陀政府站到亲欧阵营。

Euroscepticism has never really taken root in Scotland, perhaps because of its association with the English nationalists on the Tory right. Mr Farage’s Ukip has made only limited headway. So, like London and Northern Ireland, Scotland seems assured of a sizeable pro-European majority. A UK-wide Brexit vote that wrenched Scotland out of the EU against its will would be a gift to pro-independence nationalists.

欧洲怀疑论从未真正在苏格兰站稳脚跟，或许是因为这种论调与保守党右翼的英格兰民族主义者之间的关联。法拉奇的英国独立党仅仅取得有限进展。所以，正如伦敦和北爱尔兰一样，苏格兰似乎注定是亲欧投票占明显多数。如果全英投票决定脱欧、违背苏格兰的意志将其挖出欧盟，那将等于为鼓吹独立的民族主义者送上一份礼物。

After failing to win an independence vote in 2014, the governing Scottish National party suffered a setback in last month’s elections to the Edinburgh parliament. It lost its overall majority and with it the authority to call another independence referendum. But Britain’s departure from Europe would re-energise the argument. The prospect of a Scotland shackled to an England that had thrown up barricades against the continent would make erstwhile unionists think again.

继2014年未能赢得独立公投之后，执政的苏格兰国家党(Scottish National Party)上月在爱丁堡议会选举中遭受了挫折。该党失去了多数席位，从而丧失了再举行一场独立公投的权力。但是，英国脱离欧盟将再度激活独立主张。把苏格兰捆绑在对欧洲大陆说不的英格兰身上，这种可能性将让以前的统一阵营人士三思。

So they should. The case for the UK union is much the same as that for UK membership of the EU: by pooling sovereignty, nations increase their capacity to act effectively. If England left the EU it would make eminent sense for Scotland to swap one union for another.

他们应当这么做。支持联合王国的理由跟支持英国留在欧盟的理由基本上是一样的：成员国把主权集中到一起，可以提高有效行动的能力。如果英格兰要离开欧盟，对于苏格兰而言，退出一个联盟以换取另一个联盟的成员身份将是很有道理的。

It is too soon to speak of an independent London, though looking beyond Brexit it is not hard to see the capital demanding much greater autonomy. What does seem clear is that a Leave vote would intensify the political fragmentation of the UK union. Without Europe, the Brits may decide, Britain looks a much less attractive proposition.

现在谈及伦敦独立还太早了，不过，如果英国脱欧成功，我们不难看到英国首都将会要求更大自治权。看来确实很明显的是，脱离欧盟的投票结果将加剧联合王国的政治分化。脱离了欧洲，英国人或许会得出结论认为，英国本身的现有架构也不那么有吸引力了。