中美争议焦点从汇率转向产能过剩

For years, currency concerns were at the top of the agenda for US economic policymakers visiting Beijing. But as the Obama administration’s economic team prepares for its final “strategic and economic dialogue” with Chinese counterparts next week, there are signs the renminbi has been usurped by a new worry.

多年来，对汇率的关切曾是美国经济政策制定者访华时的首要议程。但在奥巴马政府经济团队筹划下周的美中“战略与经济对话”（本次对话将是奥巴马政府参与的最后一场）之际，有迹象表明，人民币问题被新的担忧取代了。

US officials have been expressing anxiety over Chinese industrial overcapacity and runaway production by the largely state-owned steel sector and other heavy industry that Beijing has pledged to rein in.

美国官员一直对中国工业产能过剩以及钢铁业和其他重工业刹不住车的产量表示忧虑——中国政府已承诺要控制住这些国企主导行业的产量。

Previewing the discussions, Nathan Sheets, the US Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs, recently called for China to allow its industrial sectors “to better reflect capacity and global demand conditions”.

最近，在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)举办的一场为下周的美中对话提供导览的“预览会”上，美国财政部负责国际事务的副部长纳森•希茨(Nathan Sheets)呼吁中国让其工业领域“更好地反映产能以及全球需求状况”。

“This issue is an important one for the global economy and for the US economy and we hope to make some progress on it in . . . Beijing,” he told an audience at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

他在会上称：“对于全球经济以及美国经济而言，这个问题很重要，我们希望在北京……在这个问题上取得一些进展。”

Chronic overcapacity in China’s steel sector has been blamed for a surge in cheap exports that have led to steel mill closures on both sides of the Atlantic.

外界一直认为，中国钢铁行业的长期产能过剩，是导致国际市场上廉价出口钢产品大幅增加的原因。廉价进口钢产品已导致很多欧美钢铁厂破产。

In response, the EU has come under pressure not to grant China “market economy status”, which would make it more difficult to prosecute Chinese companies for alleged dumping. In Washington, meanwhile, the Obama administration has paved the way for a ban on Chinese steel imports as a retaliatory measure for suspected cyber espionage against US Steel of Pittsburgh.

作为回应，欧盟(EU)一直面临压力，不要赋予中国“市场经济地位”——如果赋予市场经济地位，以涉嫌倾销为由起诉中国企业的难度会加大。与此同时，在华盛顿，奥巴马政府已为禁止进口中国钢产品铺平道路，这是对中国企业涉嫌对位于匹兹堡的美国钢铁公司(US Steel)发动网络间谍活动的报复。

Zhu Guangyao, China’s vice-finance minister, said at a briefing in Beijing on Thursday: “Trade disputes between China and the US should be addressed in accordance with World Trade Organisation principles. We are opposed to abusive trade remedy measures.”

中国财政部副部长朱光耀周四在北京的一次会议上表示：“要根据WTO的原则来解决我们之间的贸易争端……反对滥用贸易救济措施。”

Mr Sheets sounded sanguine about Beijing’s management of what the People’s Bank of China bills as a shift towards a greater market role in determining the value of the renminbi, something the US and others have been advocating for years.

中国央行(PBoC)称，要在确定人民币汇率方面转向让市场发挥更大作用（多年来美国和其他国家一直主张中国这样做）。在这方面，希茨对中国政府的掌控能力感到乐观。

China’s authorities have the resources to achieve this goal, he said. “And frankly that’s something we’ve seen over the past six months or so in terms of their management of the exchange rate.”

他表示，中国政府有能力实现这个目标。“坦率地讲，过去6个月左右，我们观察中国在管理人民币汇率方面的作为时所看到的情况就是如此。”

Concerns remain — the Treasury in April put China on a new currency manipulation watchlist — but senior current and former US officials see China’s “broad trajectory” on currency as positive. That is a far cry from the angst last summer when Beijing unveiled a policy that caused chaos in global financial markets.

关切依然存在——今年4月，美国财政部在新的汇率操纵国观察名单中将中国列入其中。但美国现任及前任高官都认为，中国在汇率上的“总体轨迹”是积极的。这与去年夏季的焦虑相去甚远，当时中国政府发布了一项政策，结果引发全球金融市场动荡。

At last year’s strategic and economic dialogue, held in Washington, the two sides pledged to “maintain candid communication on strategic economic issues”. Six months later, with China’s equity and currency markets in turmoil, the channels went dark. “Chinese officials just took their phones off the hook that week,” said one person involved in the dialogue.

在去年于华盛顿举行的战略和经济对话中，双方承诺“就战略性经济问题保持坦诚沟通”。6个月后，随着中国的股市和汇市陷入动荡，对话渠道中断了。一位参与对话的人士表示：“那一周，中方官员干脆拔掉了他们的电话线。”

When communication resumed, Chinese officials assured their US counterparts they remained committed to structural economic reforms and would refrain from competitive currency devaluations. US officials seem prepared to take them at their word.

当沟通恢复的时候，中方官员向美方保证，他们依然致力于结构性经济改革，不会搞竞争性货币贬值。美国官员似乎愿意相信他们。

David Dollar, until 2013 the US Treasury’s top representative in China, said the once totemic issue of China’s currency has “moved back in the line of issues between the US and China”.

2009-13年曾担任美国财政部驻华经济与金融特使的杜大伟(David Dollar)表示，人民币这个一度具有象征意义的问题，“如今变成了美中之间一个不那么重要的问题”。

The shift has been driven in large part by the meaningful appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar and other major currencies over the past decade to a point where the International Monetary Fund and others have argued it is fairly valued.

这种转变在很大程度上是过去十年人民币兑美元和其他主要货币汇率大幅升值推动的——人民币已经升值至国际货币基金组织(IMF)和其他机构认为的合理水平。

The US also recognises that pressure on the renminbi is driven by capital flight, and concerns over China’s economy and the currency’s value being pushed down.

美国也承认，人民币承受的压力受到资本外流、对中国经济的担忧以及人民币价值被压低的推动。

This comes as there are growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may decide to raise interest rates again soon, prompting a further strengthening of the US currency. “This is not the moment when you would [push China to] just stop intervening completely and just introduce a free exchange rate,” Mr Dollar said.

目前人们日益预期，美联储(Fed)可能很快再次决定加息，推动美元进一步走强。杜大伟表示：“现在不是你（推动中国）完全停止干预并推出自由汇率的好时机。”

China’s central bank has been selling down its foreign exchange reserves to cushion the Chinese currency’s recent declines. It is a contentious use of the country’s reserves, which have fallen by almost $800bn since peaking at $4tn.

中国央行一直在抛售外汇储备来缓冲人民币最近的下跌。中国这种使用外汇储备的方式引起了争议——中国外储自达到4万亿美元的峰值以来下降了近8000亿美元。

“The Chinese government worries too much about US reaction,” said Yu Yongding at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former PBoC adviser. “[Intervention] is a waste of foreign exchange reserves. We should use them to buy [assets], not prop up the exchange rate.”

中国社会科学院经济学家、前央行顾问余永定表示：“中国政府过于担心美国的反应了。（干预）是对外汇储备的浪费。我们应该使用外储来购买（资产），而不是用来支撑汇率。”

Eswar Prasad, a former IMF China mission chief and the author of a forthcoming book on the renminbi, said the US Treasury was clearly eager to speak about other issues next week.

IMF中国部前负责人埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示，美国财政部显然渴望在下周谈论人民币以外的其他问题。普拉萨德有一本关于人民币的新作即将出版。

That did not mean, however, that US and Chinese policymakers would be able to avoid “ritualistic” discussions on currency. “Like a sore tooth we all wish [the issue] would go away but it is likely to refuse to,” he said.

然而，这并不意味着美国和中国政策制定者将能够避免“例行公事地”讨论汇率。他说，“（这个问题）就像一颗发炎的牙齿，我们都希望炎症会消退，但它可能会顽固不消。”