欧盟商界警告中国产能过剩风险

China’s crushing overcapacity risks inflaming trade tensions as well as swamping the country’s companies with debt, the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing has warned.

北京中国欧盟商会(European Chamber of Commerce in China)警告称，中国严重的产能过剩可能加剧贸易紧张，还可能令中国企业背上大量债务。

“They can’t outgrow this problem any more,” J Wuttke, president of the European Chamber, said in Beijing. “Politicians need to realise that [Chinese] overcapacity leads to job losses, which leads to protectionism in Europe.”

中国欧盟商会主席伍德克(J Wuttke)在北京表示：“他们不能再用增长来摆脱这个问题了。政界人士必须认识到，（中国的）产能过剩导致工作岗位流失，进而导致欧洲的保护主义。”

Six out of eight industries studied by the chamber, ranging from glass to paper to steel, show signs that factories are operating at even lower rates than they were in 2009 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In the industries studied, Chinese companies compete with large European businesses.

中国欧盟商会研究了玻璃、造纸和钢铁等八个产业，其中六个产业显示出工厂的开工率比2009年全球金融危机过后更低。在这些被研究的产业中，中国企业与欧洲大型企业展开竞争。

The warning comes as the Chinese government grows vocal about the problems of the overcapacity unleashed six years ago, when Beijing authorised a flood of credit to selected industries to offset a steep drop in international demand for its exports. A December study by the People’s Bank of China found similar declines in industry utilisation rates in Jiangsu province.

中国欧盟商会发出这一警告之际，中国政府对于六年前酿成的产能过剩问题也日益直言不讳——当时中国政府授权向特定产业释放了大量信用，以抵消国际上对中国出口需求的急剧下滑。中国央行(PBoC)去年12月份开展的研究也在江苏省发现了类似幅度的行业产能利用率下滑。

European nations are pushing the EU to take action against imports of Chinese steel in defence of European mills while a case against Chinese aluminium exports is brewing in the US.

欧洲各国正在推动欧盟(EU)针对从中国进口的钢材采取行动，以保护欧洲的炼钢厂。与此同时，美国也在酝酿针对中国铝材出口的反倾销案。

More worrying for central planners is the deteriorating return on capital investment in China and the difficulty many state-owned and private businesses are having in paying off loans.

对中央规划人员来说，更令人担心的是中国的资本投资回报率正在下降，以及许多国企和民企在偿付贷款方面遇到的困难。

“The downward pressure has still not let up. PPI [producer price index] is still falling, overcapacity pressures are high, corporate profits are down,” Wang Yiming, vice-minister of the Development Research Centre which advises China’s cabinet, said in a briefing last week.

国务院发展研究中心(Development Research Centre)副主任王一鸣上周在一个情况介绍会上表示，中国经济下行压力没有完全释放，工业品价格持续下滑，产能过剩压力很大，企业利润下降。国务院发展研究中心是一个为中国国务院提供咨询的机构。

Industrial lobby groups dominated by state-owned enterprises are using the strain to argue that the government should close their private, often smaller and more nimble competitors. But the European report concludes that the lion’s share of the problem lies with bloated state companies. They enjoy easy access to loans from state-owned banks and protection from local officials who worry about the impact of a shutdown on local jobs and bank loans.

国企占统治地位的行业游说组织正在利用这一压力，声称政府应该关闭其民企竞争对手，这些竞争对手往往规模更小而更为灵活。然而，中国欧盟商会的报告认定，问题主要在于臃肿的国企。它们不仅容易从国有银行获得贷款，还容易得到地方官员的保护，这些地方官员担心关闭国企会影响当地就业和银行贷款。