炼油加入中国产能过剩行业之列

Oil refining is joining steel, coal and aluminium in the ranks of sectors hit by overcapacity in China, with increased production and a drop in truck transport forcing a wave of Chinese diesel sales into International markets.

炼油正在加入钢铁、煤炭和铝的行列，成为中国又一个存在产能过剩的行业。产量增加和卡车运输减少迫使中国向国际市场销售大量柴油。

The structural shift could dent returns for Asian and Middle Eastern refiners, including Saudi Aramco, after years of expansion to meet China’s needs as a net fuel importer.

这种结构性转变可能削弱亚洲和中东炼油企业的回报，包括沙特阿美公司(Saudi Aramco)，此前这些炼油商进行了多年的扩张，以满足中国作为燃油净进口国的需求。

The start-up of a 10m tonne-per-year refinery in Kunming , south-west China, accounts for about half the anticipated capacity expected to be added in the country this year, swelling an estimated 100m tonnes of existing excess capacity.

位于中国西南部昆明的一座炼油厂投产后，其1000万吨的年产能达到今年中国预计新增产能的大约一半，使现有的估计为1亿吨的过剩产能进一步膨胀。

China had 710m tonnes of refining capacity at the end of last year, according to the CNPC Research Institute of Economics and Technology.

根据中国石油经济技术研究院(CNPC Research Institute of Economics and Technology)的数据，去年底中国的炼油总产能达到7.1亿吨。

In the short term a bigger impact on Asian fuel trade has come from the relaxed crude import licences that have allowed China’s independent “teapot” refineries to increase their operating rates. Long lines of crude carriers have congested Qingdao port near the teapots’ heartland in Shandong province, accounting for nearly one-third of China’s crude imports in April.

短期而言，对亚洲燃油贸易产生更大冲击的是中国放松原油进口许可，这使中国独立的“茶壶”炼油厂得以提高开工率。在靠近山东省“茶壶”腹地的青岛港，排成长队的油轮堵塞了港口；这些油轮占4月中国原油进口量近三分之一。

“Usually you wouldn’t have such a dramatic increase in throughput and utilisation rates in your core refining capacity,” said Thomas Hilboldt, head of resources and energy research for HSBC in Hong Kong.

“通常你不会看到核心炼油能力的生产量和开工率如此激增，”汇丰(HSBC)香港的资源和能源研究主管托马斯•希尔伯特(Thomas Hilboldt)表示。

The chemicals and petroleum sector saw the highest number of positive responses among 10 sectors surveyed by the European Chamber of Commerce in China, in its business confidence survey released yesterday.

在中国欧盟商会(European Chamber of Commerce in China)昨日发布的商业信心调查中，化工和石油行业的正面回应数量是10个受调查行业中最高的。

China’s two largest refiners, Sinopec and PetroChina, have cut output in the face of increased flow from independent rivals. PetroChina’s average run rates are 80 per cent, down from more typical levels of 90 per cent.

面对独立竞争对手的增产，中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)这两家最大的炼油商已进行了减产。中石油的平均开工率是80%，低于90%的正常水平。

Its new Kunming refinery will supply the underserved market of south-west China, displacing product from its Guangxi and Guangdong refineries into international markets.

该集团旗下位于昆明的新炼油厂将供应中国西南部此前服务不到位的市场，使其位于广西和广东的炼油厂转而向国际市场销售产品。

The other Chinese refineries are increasing output despite declining demand for diesel, as a drop in coal demand and improved rail transport cuts into the number of heavy trucks hauling coal across the country. Because many are designed to maximise diesel production, they must keep operating rates high to achieve the same level of petrol and jet fuel output.

尽管柴油需求下降（因为煤炭需求下降和铁路运输条件改善减少了在全国各地运输煤炭的重型卡车数量），但中国其他炼油厂正在增产。由于许多炼油厂在设计时以柴油产量最大化为目标，因此它们必须保持较高的开工率，才能保持汽油和航空燃油产量水平不变。

The result is a flood of diesel into Asian markets. Diesel exports hit their highest daily rate in April, at more than 300,000 barrels a day, following record monthly exports in March.

其结果是大量柴油涌入亚洲市场。4月的每日柴油出口达到最高值，每天超过30万桶，打破3月刚刚创下的出口纪录。

“China was a key driver of diesel demand growth over the past several decades but is now a net diesel exporter, contributing to the growing oversupply in global diesel markets,” the US Energy Information Administration said in a recent report.

“中国是过去几十年柴油需求增长的主要驱动因素，但现在已成为柴油净出口国，加剧了全球柴油市场的供应过剩，”美国能源信息署(EIA)在最近一份报告中表示。

That is despite the International Energy Agency’s higher expectations for Chinese fuel demand this year, after stronger than expected economic growth in the first quarter.

这还是在国际能源机构(IEA)上调中国今年燃料需求预测背景下的局面；上调的依据是中国第一季度经济增长比预期强劲。