沙特阿拉伯眼下一团糟 改革被批"太搞笑"

Saudi Arabia is in a mess. That conclusion seems to be common ground — the view of serious outside analysts and of the country’s own government. The only question is whether the problems can be corrected by shock treatment of the sort announced in Riyadh last week.

沙特阿拉伯眼下一团糟。这个结论似乎是外界认真的分析师和沙特政府的一致看法。唯一的问题是，这些问题能否通过上周利雅得宣布的那种休克疗法得到解决。

The immediate challenge is clear. Last year, revenue from oil exports fell by 23 per cent. That matters in a country that is 77 per cent dependent on oil income. Unemployment is officially 11.6 per cent, not counting the millions who hold non-jobs in and around the agencies of the state. In total, 70 per cent of Saudis work for the government. In the first half of last year, according to Mohammed al-Sheikh, the chief economic adviser to the all-powerful deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (known universally as MbS), the kingdom’s financial reserves were being drawn down at a rate that would have exhausted them by the end of 2017 — far earlier than had previously been estimated by outside authorities such as the International Monetary Fund.

直接挑战显而易见。去年，来自石油出口的财政收入下滑23%。对于一个77%的财政收入依赖于石油的国家来说，这一点关系重大。在不计算数以百万计的在政府机构内部及周边无所事事的雇员的情况下，官方失业率为11.6%。总共70%的沙特人为政府工作。去年上半年，为掌握实权的沙特副王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼（Mohammed bin Salman，被普遍称为MbS）担任首席经济顾问的穆罕默德•阿尔-谢赫(Mohammed al-Sheikh)表示，沙特王国的资金储备正在迅速流失，到2017年底就可能会彻底干涸。这比国际货币基金组织(IMF)等外部权威机构此前的预测要早得多。

All those problems were well summed up in a note from McKinseys published at the end of last year that talked of the prospect of a rapid economic deterioration in Saudi Arabia over the next decade.

麦肯锡(McKinsey)去年底发表的一份报告很好地总结了沙特的种种问题，该报告预测了未来10年沙特经济迅速恶化的前景。

So radical change is needed, which brings us to the announcement last week of MbS’s Vision 2030, designed to create a modern economy free of dependence on oil. The full announcement is worth reading because it demonstrates the sheer scale of the ambition, but a few headlines will give you the flavour.

因此，沙特需要大刀阔斧的改革，这就让我们回到上周沙特副王储宣布的《愿景2030》(Vision 2030)。该计划旨在打造摆脱对石油依赖的现代化经济体。整套报告值得一读，因为它展现了沙特的勃勃雄心，但是几个标题就会给你一个大致印象。

•A stake in the state-owned oil company will be floated in an IPO within the next two years.

• 未来两年内，将对沙特国有石油公司的部分股权进行首次公开发行(IPO)。

•The funds from that and other asset sales — perhaps $2tn dollars or more — will be invested in a new sovereign wealth fund to give the country a regular income from non-oil sources.

• 这笔IPO和出售其他资产所得——可能达到2万亿美元以上——将投资于一只新的主权财富基金，使国家得以从非石油类资产获得固定收入。

•The country will be opened up to tourism.

• 沙特将开放旅游业。

•Expats will be allowed to own property within Saudi Arabia.

• 允许外国人在沙特境内拥有房地产。

•New small and medium-sized enterprises will be encouraged to the point where they account for 35 per cent of economic activity.

• 政府将鼓励创办中小型企业，目标是让这类企业占据35%的经济活动。

•Subsidies for oil, water and electricity will be progressive eliminated.

• 逐步取消对成品油、水和电力的补贴。

•Unemployment will be reduced to 7 per cent

• 将失业率降至7%。

•A range of new industrial sectors will be developed, including petrochemicals, manufacturing and finance on the basis of foreign investment.

• 依靠外资发展一系列新的产业，包括石油化工、制造业和金融业。

•An anti-corruption drive in the Ministry of Defence will be combined with the development of a domestic military equipment business that will be capable of meeting at least half of the country’s needs.

• 将在国防部发起反腐运动，同时发展国内军工产业，使其至少可以满足沙特一半的军事装备需求。

All this builds on a full-scale McKinsey study called “Saudi Arabia — Beyond Oil”, which was published at the end of last year.

这一切措施都建立在麦肯锡去年底发表的全面报告《沙特阿拉伯——超越石油》(Saudi Arabia — Beyond Oil)之上。

The only problem with this grand plan is that is completely unrealistic. To say, as MbS did last week, that by 2020 Saudi Arabia will no longer be dependent on oil revenue is beyond a dream. To say that the country doesn’t care whether the oil price is $30 a barrel or $70 is ridiculous. But the real problem is the reality when it comes to implementation. Last week’s policy statement makes no reference to any of the difficulties of delivering what is promised.

这份宏伟计划的唯一问题是它完全不切实际。说沙特到2020年将不再依赖石油收入（就像上周副王储所说的那样），简直比梦话还要乌托邦。说沙特不在乎油价是每桶30美元还是每桶70美元，实在荒唐。但是，真正的问题在于落实这些措施时的现实。上周的政策声明压根没提到兑现这些承诺的难度。

Are we really supposed to believe that Saudi Arabia can create an industry to build technically complex military equipment from a zero base?

我们真的应该相信沙特可以从零开始、创建一个有能力制造先进军事装备的产业吗？

Or to believe that western tourists are going to flock to a country whose laws allow people to be stoned to death for adultery or gay sex? The human rights problems are amply and regularly set out in reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. How many western women will be happy to slip into a burkini for their holidays?

或是相信西方游客会蜂拥来到这个依法可对通奸者或同性恋者处以石刑的国家吗？大赦国际(Amnesty International)和人权观察组织(Human Rights Watch)的报告中定期详细描述沙特的人权问题。有多少西方女性愿意在度假时套上穆斯林泳装“布基尼”？

How is the civil service which MBS accepted last week was corrupt and inefficient to be reformed when so many of the brightest and best Saudis are happier to live and work in London or New York?

在那么多最聪明最优秀的沙特人更乐于在伦敦或纽约工作生活的情况下，怎么对副王储承认腐败而低效的行政部门进行改革呢？

How is Aramco to be converted into a company that can meet western standards of transparency and good governance? Will the kingdom, for instance, allow an independent external analysis of the company’s claimed oil and gas reserves?

沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（Saudi Aramco，简称沙特阿美）如何转型为达到西方透明度及优良治理标准的企业？例如，沙特王国会允许外部独立机构对该公司声称的油气储量进行分析吗？

And, perhaps most important of all, how will the Saudi government break the hold ofWahhabist religious fundamentalism, something the royal family has not managed over the last century?

同时，或许最重要的是，沙特政府将如何打破瓦哈比派原教旨主义的控制？过去一个世纪，沙特皇室都没能做到这一点。

Without a serious analysis of the delivery process, Vision 2030 is meaningless rhetoric. The barriers to progress are not new. They have defeated every attempt to achieve change and reform made by successive Saudi governments. Promises of economic diversification, of industrial development, of education for all and of a transformation of the energy sector through the development of renewables have all ended in failure. To ignore the problems of delivery is to demonstrate the unreality of the whole approach. I hope McKinsey — a firm of the highest integrity — will point this out rather allowing its brand to be tarnished by association with a project that it must know cannot work.

在不对改革落实过程进行认真分析的情况下，《愿景2030》只是毫无意义的空谈。进步的障碍并不新鲜。它们挫败了历任沙特政府推行改变和改革的所有尝试。对于经济多元化、工业发展、全民教育以及发展可再生能源以推进能源业转型的承诺，均以失败告终。忽视落实过程中面临的问题，暴露了整个思路的脱离实际。我希望麦肯锡作为一家具有最高诚信的公司指出这一点，而不是任由其招牌被它肯定知道行不通的项目玷污。

The worst thing is that MbS, who is 30 and has not enjoyed the benefit of a western education with its inbuilt tone of scepticism, actually believes what he is saying and does indeed think that he can transform the country by an act of personal will. The deputy crown prince is the sort of character about whom Shakespeare could have written a great play. It would not have ended happily.

最糟糕的是，这位30岁、从未受过西方教育及其内在怀疑思维熏陶的副王储，实际上相信自己所说的话，真的认为他可以通过个人意志改变这个国家。他属于那种可以让莎士比亚写出一部伟大剧本的人物类型。该剧本不会以喜剧收场。

It might be tempting to say that these are Saudi Arabia’s problems and that after innumerable further, and no doubt very lucrative, consultancy studies little will change and MbS will be swept away — perhaps by a change of the guard after his father’s death.

人们或许忍不住说，这些都是沙特的问题，在咨询机构无数次报酬丰厚的进一步研究之后，几乎什么都不会改变，副王储将被踢出历史舞台——或许是在其父亲去世、王位易主之后。

That view is too narrow. Saudi Arabia matters in the region — look at the damage being done in Yemen and by the wider conflict with Iran which MbS has been stoking. Provocative behaviour, driven on by economic weakness and competition for shares of the oil market, could make a bad neighbourhood even more volatile.

这种观点太过狭隘。沙特在中东地区至关重要——看看也门遭受的损害，以及沙特与伊朗之间的全方位对抗（这位副王储正在火上浇油）。受经济疲软和争夺石油市场份额驱动，挑衅行为可能会让一个糟糕的地区更加动荡。

And the country matters in the world, as well. Global oil consumption may be coming to its peak but it will stay at around 90 to 100mbd for a very long time. The kingdom is a crucial part of the equation and should be on the side of stability. Pretending the price doesn’t matter reflects a lack of interest or knowledge when it comes to the wider consequences of the policies being pursued.

这个国家对整个世界同样举足轻重。全球石油消费可能即将见顶，但仍将在很长时期内保持在每日9000万至1亿桶水平上。沙特王国是石油供需平衡的关键组成部分，应该成为稳定的力量。假装油价无关紧要反映出，对于政策带来的更广泛的后果，某些人要么不关心、要么不懂。

For Saudi Arabia, the lack of realism behind Vision 2030 can only make a messy situation worse. For those outside the kingdom, the naivity of the approach is another unwelcome source of instability and danger.

对于沙特阿拉伯来说，《愿景2030》背后的不切实际只会让混乱的局面更加糟糕。对于沙特以外的国家来说，这种战略的幼稚是另一个不受欢迎的动荡和危险的源头。