英国脱欧有意义吗 In trade geography matters more than you think

When you can download software from the US or your favourite song from Australia, it is not surprising that both the tech-savvy and those wanting Britain to leave the EU assert that geographical proximity has never matteRed less. This is a favourite phrase of Daniel Hannan, a Brexit-supporting Conservative member of the European Parliament. It also happens to be a myth.

当你能够从美国下载软件或从澳大利亚下载你最喜欢的歌曲时，不奇怪的是，精通科技者和那些希望英国离开欧盟(EU)的人都断言，地域上的邻近从未像现在这样不重要。这是支持英国脱欧的欧洲议会(European Parliament)成员、英国保守党人丹尼尔•汉南(Daniel Hannan)最喜欢说的一句话。但它恰恰是错误的。

Take two countries, one with historic ties to Britain and which shares the same language, the other is merely in the middle of the European continent. New Zealand and the Czech Republic were both $200bn economies in 2014, measured at prevailing exchange rates, and Britain trades significantly more with one than the other. Imports and exports of goods and services in 2014 were 3.9 times higher with our European not-so-near neighbour than with our distant former colony.

以两个国家为例，一个与英国有着历史渊源，使用同一种语言，另一个只不过地理位置居于欧洲大陆中部。根据当前汇率计算，新西兰和捷克2014年的经济规模都是2000亿美元，英国与其中一国的贸易明显多于它与另一国的贸易。2014年，英国与相距并不算太近的捷克之间的商品和服务进出口规模，是它与相距遥远的前殖民地澳大利亚的3.9倍。

This is not cherry-picking countries. Britain might not play a lot of cricket with Spain but it trades 3.3 times more with its former enemy than it does with Australia. Both Spain and Australia are $1.4tn economies, but British people are more willing to travel short haul for sunshine and sangria than for the lifestyle of Neighbours, the long-running Australian television soap opera.

这并非孤证。英国或许不怎么跟西班牙在一起打板球，但英国与这个历史上的死敌的贸易额是英国与澳大利亚贸易额的3.3倍。西班牙和澳大利亚的经济规模都是1.4万亿美元，但英国人更愿意去邻近的西班牙享受阳光和桑格里亚酒，而不是千里迢迢去澳大利亚感受《家有芳邻》(Neighbours)中的生活——《家有芳邻》是澳大利亚一部播了许多年的电视剧。

Geography still matters in trade, but distance is not the only determinant. Size of market is also important. As China’s weight in the world economy has grown rapidly, so naturally has the amount of trade with Beijing.

在贸易领域，地理位置仍然重要，但距离并非唯一的决定因素——市场规模也很重要。随着中国占全球经济规模的比重迅速增长，英国与中国的贸易规模自然而然也扩大了。

China is a growing share of Britain’s trade, for sure, but let’swe should not exaggerate its importance. Compared with the Chinese gross domestic product was $10.4tn in 2014 but trade with Britain’s trade accounted for 0.9 per cent of itthe Chinese economy, much smaller than the EU’s trade with Britainthe UK, which accounted for 5.5 per cent of the EU economy in 2014.

中国在英国对外贸易中所占比重肯定正日益上升，但我们不应夸大中国的重要性。中国2014年的国内生产总值(GDP)为10.4万亿美元，中英贸易仅占中国经济规模的0.9%，远远低于欧盟与英国贸易规模占前者经济规模的比例，这一比例在2014年为5.5%。

Not only is Britain’s trade with the EU much larger relative to the size of the market, geography also appears to be becoming more, not less, important. Ten years earlier, in 2004, Beijing’s trade with the UK accounted for 1.4 per cent of China’s economy, a larger slice, but the trade intensity with the EU has remained essentially the same.

不仅是英国与欧盟的贸易以市场规模衡量比它与中国的贸易密切得多，地理位置的重要性似乎也在上升，或者也可以理解为在下降。2004年，中国与英国的贸易占中国经济规模的1.4%，比例高于今日，但与欧盟的贸易强度则一直保持基本不变。

So-called gravity models, which are economic analyses that try to explain trade patterns by geography and size of markets, find that Britain trades more than might be expected with Europe largely because that market is much more integrated than a free-trade zone.

所谓的贸易引力模型(gravity model)发现，英国与欧洲的贸易密切程度可能超过了模型的预计，这在很大程度上是因为这个市场的一体化程度远远超过自由贸易区。贸易引力模型是一种经济分析，试图通过地理位置因素和市场规模解释贸易模式。

Although the economic theory of trade started with David Ricardo’s stories about exchanging Portuguese wine for British cloth, most modern trade occurs among similar goods and services in similar markets. It and brings benefits from increased forces of competition, raising productivity through improved processes and management and eliminating theinefficient producers.

尽管经济学中关于贸易的理论始于大卫・李嘉图(David Ricardo)用葡萄牙红酒交换英国布料的故事，但多数现代贸易表现为相似市场之间交换相似的商品和服务。这种交换是有好处的，因为它加大了市场竞争，而竞争能够促使生产者改进流程和管理、淘汰生产效率低下的产品，从而提高生产率。

Reducing tariffs and removing quotas boost trade and bring gains but deeper integration, harmonisation of regulation, recognition of other countries standards, prohibition of artificial state aid and eliminating non-tariff barriers are more powerful. For Britain, the only big and close market in which it can achieve these benefits is the European single market. All other large markets are too far away.

降低关税和取消配额会扩大贸易并带来好处，但加深一体化、统一监管制度、承认别国标准、禁止人为政府援助和消除非关税壁垒是更有力的办法。英国唯一能够享受到这些好处的大型封闭市场就是欧洲单一市场。所有其他大型市场都距离太远。

Countries and companies often find deep integration uncomfortable because the weak go to the wall complaining bitterly. But that is as it should be. Complete in goods, the single market still needs to develop further in services.

国家和企业通常往往不愿意推进深层次的一体化，因为弱者会大声抱怨。但就应该这样做。欧洲单一市场在商品自由流动方面已经发展完备，但仍需继续破除阻碍服务自由流动的障碍。

Britain would therefore be deluded to leave the single market even if it were to vote to leave the EU. That, of course, would mean the country would have to pay an entry fee, accept free movement of people, regulation set in Brussels and pooled sovereignty. In which case, it is legitimate to ask, what is the point of Brexit?

因此，即便英国投票离开欧盟，英国离开单一市场将是愚蠢的。当然，留在单一市场则意味着，英国将不得不支付市场准入费，接受人员的自由流动、由布鲁塞尔制定的监管规定以及主权共享。那样的话，我们有理由问：英国脱欧还有何意义？