南中国海局势值得关注的六点

The US Navy on Tuesday launched an operation to send a warship to within 12 nautical miles of two man-made islands in the South China Sea. Here are six things to look out for as maritime tensions escalate.

周二，美国海军展开了一次行动，将军舰派至南中国海两个人工岛附近12海里水域内。在海上紧张局势升级之际，有六点值得人们注意。

1) The South China Sea is becoming increasingly militarised. In recent years, China has built five artificial islands in the South China Sea and is constructing at least three airfields that could handle military aircraft. In response to the Chinese military presence, the USS Lassen, an Arleigh Burke class destroyer, will sail close to two of those islands. Beijing, in turn, is likely to accuse the US of militarising the region.

一、南中国海正变得日益军事化。最近几年，中国在南中国海修建了五座人工岛，并且正在上面建造至少三座可起降军用飞机的机场。作为对中国军事存在的回应，美国阿利伯克级(Arleigh Burke)驱逐舰拉森号(USS Lassen)驶近上述岛屿中的两座。接下来，北京方面很可能会指责美国将该地区军事化。

2) It is about control of the seas, not about who owns the islands. The US is not sending a destroyer near the man-made islands to protest China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea — the US insists it is neutral about the territorial disputes between China and five other countries. Instead, the US is trying to show that artificial islands do not give China control over the surrounding seas. Under international law, countries have jurisdiction over 12 nautical miles around genuine islands but not around man-made features.

二、这次行动关乎的是对该海域的控制，而不是谁拥有这些岛屿。美国派驱逐舰迫近这些人工岛，不是为了抗议中国在南中国海的主权声索——美方坚称对中国与其他五国间的南中国海领土争端不持立场。实际上，美国是试图宣示，人工岛并不赋予中国对周边海域的控制权。依照国际法，各国对天然岛而非人工岛周边12海里水域拥有管辖权。

3) That means the details are important. The US Navy is sending the destroyer to Subi and Mischief reefs for a good reason — according to experts in the US, both artificial islands are completely man-made. Fiery Cross reef, another of the new islands where China is building a military-capable airfield, did originally have some rocks above water, which could give it a slightly more ambiguous legal status.

三、这意味着细节很重要。按照美国专家的说法，美国海军将驱逐舰派往渚碧礁(Subi reef)和美济礁(Mischief reef)的理由很充分，这两个岛屿都是纯粹人工建造起来的。至于另一个新岛屿永暑礁（Fiery Cross Reef，中国正在上面修建可用于军事目的的机场），最初的形态中确有部分岩石在水面之上，这可能会令该岛的法律地位略微含糊一些。

4) There is more to come. US officials say that the so-called “freedom of navigation operation” is the start of a series of missions in the area. But future operations will also sail close to land features claimed by other countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam, to try to show that the US is not taking sides in the territorial disputes.

四、接下来还会有行动。美国官员表示，所谓的“通航自由行动”是在该地区一系列任务的开端。不过，美国在未来的行动中还会驶近菲律宾和越南等其他国家声索的“地物”(land features)，试图证明美国并未在领土争端中选边站。

5) China’s reaction. None of that is likely to appease Beijing, which has already reacted angrily to the prospect of US naval missions near its new islands. Analysts think that the biggest risk — a confrontation between US and Chinese vessels — is unlikely at this stage. However, China could use the US move as a pretext to step up its military presence on the islands, putting in place more radar and other communications equipment and giving it greater capacity to monitor activity in the region.

五、中国的反应。北京方面很可能不会心平气和地看待这一切，它之前对美国海军在其新修岛屿附近展开行动的可能性已经作出了愤怒的回应。分析人士认为，现阶段还不太可能出现美中军舰对峙这种最大的风险。不过，中国可能会把美国的举动当作一个借口，来扩大自身在这些岛屿的军事存在，安装更多的雷达和其他通信设备，从而获得更多监视该地区活动的能力。

6) The regional response. By and large, the rest of the region will welcome the US move. Vietnam and the Philippines have been outraged in recent years by what they see as China’s power play in the South China Sea. More recently, Malaysia and even Indonesia have expressed concerns. The big long-term question is whether the US is able to use this anxiety to mobilise a coalition of nations in the region that can balance China’s growing power.

六、该地区的反应。总体上看，该地区的其余国家会欢迎美国的举动。近几年来，越南和菲律宾对它们眼中中国在南中国海的高压攻势感到非常气愤。不久之前，马来西亚甚至印尼也表示过担忧。一个重要的长期问题在于，美国能否利用这种焦虑在该地区组织起一个国家联盟，以制衡中国不断增长的实力。