暂时的同盟 中俄联手抗衡美国

The announcement of closer Russian-Chinese military co-operation is a striking sign of how geo-political competition is hotting up – as both Russia and China look to push back against a US-dominated world.

俄罗斯与中国关于加强军事合作的声明是地缘政治竞赛正在升温的一个显著迹象，两国都希望对抗美国主导的世界。

Russia, in the midst of the crisis in Ukraine, is eager to show that it has alternatives to the West and a powerful new ally in China. China also has a strong motivation to push back against America. The Chinese greatly resent America’s much-ballyhooed “pivot to Asia” – which includes stationing 60 per cent of the US navy in the Pacific. One of China’s weaknesses in the contest with the US for dominance in the Asia-Pacific is that it has few clear allies in the region. By contrast, America has defence treaties with Japan and South Korea, and close ties with several South-East Asian nations. However, by getting closer to the Russians, the Chinese potentially set up a powerful nascent alliance of their own.

处于乌克兰危机中的俄罗斯急于表明它在与西方关系恶化后，找到了中国这个强大的新盟友。中国也有对抗美国的强烈动机。中国对美国大肆宣传“重返亚洲”——其中包括把60%的美国海军派驻到太平洋——很不满意。在与美国竞争亚太地区的主导权中，中国的弱点之一就是它在该地区没有多少明确的盟友。相比之下，美国不但与日本和韩国签有防御条约，还与多个东南亚国家关系密切。然而，通过接近俄罗斯，中国可能会建立起一个属于自己的强大的新生联盟。

It is yet to be seen how much substance there are to these ties. But two of the announcements made by the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, are particularly eye-catching. First, his statement that Russia and China are intent on forming a “collective regional security system” suggests that this is potentially a very ambitious arrangement – that might go far beyond the occasional joint naval exercise. “Collective security” arrangements imply a Nato-like commitment to collective self-defence. Second, the suggestion that China and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean next year is also slightly mind-boggling. If we see the Chinese navy on patrol in the Med, it really will feel like a new world.

这些新的关系到底有多少实质性内容还有待观察。但俄罗斯国防部长谢尔盖•绍伊古(Sergei Shoigu)所作的声明中有两点格外抢眼。首先，他关于俄罗斯和中国有意建立“区域性集体安全机制”的言论表明这可能是一个极具雄心的计划，或许会远超联合海军演习。“集体安全”计划意味着一个类似北约(Nato)的集体自卫权承诺。其次，关于中国与俄罗斯明年将在地中海举行联合海军演习的说法也有点令人不敢置信。如果我们看到中国海军在地中海巡逻，那感觉真的像进入了一个新世界。

The attractions for the Chinese and Russians of all this – however – are clear. They both deeply resent America’s global military reach. The fact that the US navy patrols off the Chinese coast, while Nato-nations are up against the Russian border is a source of grievance. By beginning to hold naval exercises in the West’s backyard (although not quite the Caribbean, yet), the Russians and Chinese seem to be engaging in a very deliberate exercise in push-back.

然而，这些安排对中俄两国的吸引力是显而易见的。两国都对美国的全球军事影响力深感不满。美国海军在中国海岸附近水域巡逻，北约国家势力直逼俄罗斯边境，这些事实是中俄不满情绪的根源之一。俄罗斯和中国通过开始在西方后院（虽然还不至于在加勒比海）举行海军演习，貌似是在为对抗进行一次深谋远虑的演习。

But it is premature to say that a Russia-China bloc is emerging that is now in a full-on confrontation with the West. On the contrary, China seems to be skilfully playing both sides. It is interesting that this tilt to Russia comes just a week after a relatively warm and productive summit between the US and Chinese presidents – that resulted in an important agreement on climate change.

但要就此说“俄中联盟”正在成型且与西方形成全面对抗之势还为时过早。恰恰相反，中国似乎在两边玩弄手腕。有意思的是，美中元首刚参加完较为友好且富有成效的峰会，发表了关于气候变化的一个重要声明，一周后中国就又向俄罗斯倾斜了。

It is clear that Russia and China share some common resentments about the US. Specifically, both feel bitter about America’s refusal to grant them dominance of their own neighbourhoods. Both feel internally threatened by US democracy promotion – hence the Russian defence minister’s angry references to America’s promotion of “colour revolutions”. Both nations dislike US interventionism and the idea of a unipolar world, which is why they are spending a lot of money on weapons to try and close the military gap.

俄罗斯和中国显然都对美国怀有一些共同的不满情绪。具体而言，两国都对美国拒绝给予他们对自己周边地区的主导权感到愤怒。两国都觉得内政上受到美国民主推广的威胁，所以俄罗斯国防部长才会愤怒地提到美国助长了“颜色革命”。两国都不喜欢美国的干涉主义和单极世界的想法，正是这一原因导致他们在武器上花费大量金钱，以求缩短与美国的军事差距。

But Russia is much weaker than China. Its economy is in bad shape, and Russia’s relationship with the US is now so bad, that – unlike China – it no longer has an American option. As a result, Russia had to accept a disadvantageous gas price in the energy deal it negotiated with China in May. China is also now pressing Russia to sell it high-tech weaponry that the Russians formerly withheld.

但俄罗斯的国力比中国要弱得多。俄罗斯经济情况不佳，现在与美国的关系也糟糕透顶，与中国不同，俄罗斯已经没有了“美国选项”。这导致俄罗斯5月在与中国进行能源交易谈判时，不得不接受一个不利的天然气价格。中国现在还在要求俄罗斯向其出售高科技武器装备，俄罗斯之前对此是坚决拒绝的。

What is more, Russia still has deep misgivings about the long-term implications of China’s rise. Russia’s Far East is resource-rich, under-populated and large parts of it were colonised from China in the nineteenth century. The Russian-Chinese rapprochement is certainly something to watch in the short term. In the long run, it could yet sour.

更重要的是，俄罗斯对中国崛起的长期影响仍怀着很深的顾虑。俄罗斯的远东地区资源丰富，人口稀少，而且大部分都是19世纪从中国殖民得来的。俄中友好关系在短期内肯定是有看头的。但长期来看，有可能变得不那么和睦。