捉迷藏执杀刀 金正恩在折腾什么

The recent disappearance of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young leader, from public view for more than 40 days has stirred enormous speculation and concern. His mysterious absence was further amplified by the country’s most senior military leader’s unexpected appearance in South Korea along with a high-level team to discuss the terms for renewed North-South diplomacy. These unusual comings and goings were the subject of feverish conjecture and rumour-mongering, with supposed experts suggesting that the “Young Genius” was either deposed in a coup and replaced by his sister, recovering from ankle surgery after an unfortunate fall in teetering high heels or recuperating in hiding after a disfiguring injury. Much of the more outlandish speculation seemed to be resolved by his reappearance in public on Tuesday last week, when he showed up in North Korean state media with a noticeable limp and black cane – perfect accessories to the already Bondish quality of his villainous reputation. Official television in Pyongyang offered helpfully that he had been experiencing “discomfort”.

朝鲜年轻的领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)最近从公众视线中消失了40余天，引发了大量猜想和担忧。令事态更加戏剧化的是，在他神秘失踪期间，朝鲜军方最高人物带领一支高级别团队出人意料地出现在韩国，重启南北外交。这些不同寻常的动向点燃了人们的猜测热情，导致流言四起。一些所谓的专家提出无奇不有的种种猜想：朝鲜发生了政变，“年轻的天才”已被废黜，被他的妹妹接替；穿高跟皮鞋的他不幸摔跤，接受踝骨手术后正在康复；因伤毁容后躲起来恢复。上周二金正恩公开露面之后，大部分猜想都不攻自破了。那天，金正恩明显一瘸一拐地出现在朝鲜官方媒体上，拄着黑色拐杖，跟他本来就具备的007反面人物形象十分相称。平壤官方电视台隔靴搔痒般地解释称，金正恩此前“身体不适”。

What are we to make of all this? The basic questions about the durability of Mr Kim’s leadership and his relationship with his closest colleagues, family and the military, together with the seemingly contradictory overtures with South Korea – including calls to renew dialogue interspersed with exchanges of gunfire across the Demilitarised Zone – underscore the many uncertainties that are intrinsic to the North Korean drama. Northeast Asia is increasingly integral to the global economy and its economic development is critical to sustaining even lumbering global growth. However, North Korea’s continuing nuclear ambitions and occasional provocations pose significant worries to the fragile region which is beset by internal rivalries, historical disagreements and mutual distrust. It is no secret that relations between China and North Korea have frayed recently and there are ample concerns in Beijing that Pyongyang’s nefarious activities undermine China’s larger strategic interests. Still, fraternal Communist ties means the countries remain intertwined, although deeply distrustful of each other.

我们该如何看待这一系列事件？关于金正恩领导地位的持久性、他与他最亲密的同僚、家人和军方的关系，以及朝鲜对韩国貌似自相矛盾的态度（包括一方面呼吁重启对话，一方面又在非军事区开火），都存在一些根本的疑问，凸显出朝鲜问题内在固有的不确定性。东北亚地区对全球经济越来越不可或缺，这一地区的经济发展对于支撑哪怕是低速的全球增长至关重要。然而，朝鲜不放弃核野心，时不时进行挑衅，令人们对这个受困于内部角力、历史分歧和互不信任的脆弱地区产生严重担忧。中国和朝鲜近来关系紧张，这已经不是秘密。北京方面很担心平壤方面的邪恶行为损害中国的整体战略利益。不过，共产党之间兄弟般的纽带意味着中朝两国仍然紧密联系在一起，尽管相互之间存在极深的不信任。

Park Gyeun-hye, South Korea’s president, has recently articulated an ambitious vision of a Korea reunited and a peaceful end to division on the peninsula. While most of her plan focuses on the hopes and benefits associated with such a reunion, there is still much worry about the North Korean dissolution or instability that would precede such a conjoining. Most Korea watchers believe that the process of reunification would likely be deeply unsettling and expensive, with the potential for nuclear leakage, mass refugee flows and misunderstandings between the larger surrounding states.

韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)最近详细描述了实现韩朝统一、和平结束朝鲜半岛分裂的远大愿景。尽管她的计划大多着眼于韩朝统一的希望和好处，但人们仍然非常担心朝鲜崩溃，担心统一之前的不稳定。大多数朝鲜问题观察人士相信，韩朝统一进程很可能带来极大动荡和极高代价，还可能导致核泄漏、大规模难民潮和周围几个大邻国之间的误解。

Indeed North Korea is determined not to go down quietly and wishes to have a say in the determination of its own future. Most of the time, it creates news through its provocative activities – shelling islands, sinking ships and staging nuclear tests. The point to all of this is often to create leverage to extract material concessions from the rest of the world. However, as the world has grown less patient with North Korean antics and inured to its attempts at escalating tensions, Pyongyang is left to contemplate new strategies to attract attention to itself.

的确，朝鲜下定决心不悄悄退出历史舞台，希望在决定其未来的过程中拥有一份话语权。大多数时候，朝鲜通过挑衅行为制造新闻——炮轰岛屿、击沉军舰、进行核试验。这一切举动的目的往往是为了制造筹码，迫使其他国家向它提供实质性的好处。然而，随着国际社会对朝鲜的花招越来越没有耐心，对其迫使紧张局势升级的企图也越来越无动于衷，平壤方面只好设计新的战略，来吸引人们对它的注意力。

It is not an accident that the international media has paid much attention over the past few weeks to North Korea. Much of the informed commentary counsels that it is necessary to have some lines of communication into Pyongyang given the many uncertainties at play. As a consequence, Tokyo, Seoul and Washington are now establishing back channel schemes for careful and calibrated engagement with North Korea.

过去几周来，国际媒体对朝鲜给予了许多关注，这并非偶然。许多有识之士建议，鉴于眼下存在的诸多不确定因素，有必要与平壤建立某种联系方式。于是，东京、首尔和华盛顿方面眼下都在建立秘密联络渠道，以求谨慎、精确地同朝方接触。

Thus through his temporary disappearance, Mr Kim enticed neighbouring nations to try harder to engage with him. Ultimately, talking to antagonists is often a wise approach. However, North Korea has never been satisfied with simply talk. Its objective has always been to elicit external support to buttress the failing regime.

因此，通过暂时的“失踪”，金正恩诱使邻国纷纷更努力地尝试与他打交道。与敌人对话最终往往是明智之举。然而，朝鲜从未仅满足于对话，它的目标一直是获取外部支持，维系这个江河日下的政权。

So we await the next move from the interlocutors. Can they lure North Korea to consider peaceful reunification or to renounce its nuclear ambitions? Or, more likely, will this simply be another chapter in Pyongyang’s larger designs to coerce more support from the outside world to remain relevant and live to see another tension-filled day?

那么，我们就拭目以待，看看有关各方接下来会走出什么棋吧。他们能不能诱使朝鲜考虑与韩国和平统一？或是放弃核武野心？抑或，可能性更大的情况是，这只不过是平壤方面使出的又一个招数，目的是从外部世界争取更多支持，以保持自身的相关性，撑到剑拔弩张的下一幕。

The writer is chairman and chief executive of The Asia Group and on the board of the Center for a New American Security. From 2009-13 he served as the assistant US secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs

本文作者是亚洲集团(The Asia Group)主席兼首席执行官、新美国安全中心(Center for a New American Security)董事，2009年至2013年担任美国东亚及太平洋事务助理国务卿