面对威胁,金正恩再次发飙
RUMOURS of fatherhood, and the thrill of having Dennis Rodman, a 51-year-old American basketball has-been, as a new best friend, have done little to mellow Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young leader. Once again relations between his family’s regime and the outside world have returned to the dangerous script of nuclear provocation, sanctions and threats of war.
On March 6th Kyodo, a Japanese news agency, reported that camouflage netting was being thrown over buses and trains in Pyongyang in readiness for conflict. A day earlier the regime reheated old threats, as America proposed a resolution to the UN Security Council, stiffening sanctions against North Korea for its third nuclear test on February 12th. It said it would scrap the 1953 armistice agreement with America that ended the Korean war (did it forget that it had already scrapped it, in 2009?). It cut off a hotline with American troops in South Korea. And it once again threatened nuclear attack.
3月6日，据一家日本新闻中心日本共同社报道，平壤的公共汽车和火车都已进入了伪装，为突发斗争做准备。一天前，美国向联合国安理会发起一项决议，倡议对朝鲜2月12日进行的第三次核试验进行严厉制裁，这重燃了朝鲜旧时的威胁。朝鲜表示将摒弃1953年与美国签订的结束朝鲜战争的停战协议（朝鲜已于2009年撕毁了该项协定）。朝方切断了位于韩国的与美国军队的服务电话。此外，朝方再次以核攻击发起威胁。Its anger appeared to have been provoked as much by land, sea and air drills involving American and South Korean forces near the Korean peninsula, which are due to intensify from March 11th, as by the proposed sanctions. Yonhap, a Seoul-based news agency, said South Korea is bracing itself for rival North Korean exercises next week. In a sign of escalating tension, South Korea’s army said on March 6th that it might attack the North’s commanders if provoked—a rare threat directed at the regime’s top brass.
朝方的反应激起了美韩军队在朝鲜半岛周围的海陆空军演，由于制裁的提出，军演会在3月11日加强。韩国新闻社韩国联合通讯社表示，韩国已经准备好应对下周朝鲜的演习。韩国军方表示，如遭挑衅，韩方将在3月6日袭击朝鲜指挥官，这是两方关系进一步升级的信号，也是鲜有的向政权高层发起威胁的现象。
Sanctions, which America hopes will be approved this week, are aimed at further curbing the North’s nuclear programme. They will put a stronger focus on financial transactions between North Korea and the rest of the world, including what some suspect are “suitcases of cash” crossing from North Korea into China. They will step up monitoring of its foreign emissaries suspected of arms negotiations, and list for the first time the goodies said to be coveted by Mr Kim’s inner circle, such as yachts, jewellery, luxury vehicles and racing cars. Previously, it was up to each state to draw up a list of its own. And the resolution will oblige states to check North Korean transport vessels suspected of ferrying contraband.
美方希望本周内安理会将通过该项制裁，以抑制朝鲜进一步的核项目。制裁的重点将放在朝鲜与其他国家的金融交易，其中包括有些人怀疑的中朝“现金交易”。制裁还包括监督外国间谍与朝进行的武器谈判，还有金正恩内部成员首度透露的欲交易商品，例如游艇、珠宝、豪车和赛车。此前，决议还规定让每个国家单独提交一份列表。这份决议将敦促各个国家检查是否将违禁运送品运到了朝鲜。UN sanctions imposed after North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006 have been leaky. Since then the regime’s nuclear and ballistic-missile programmes have advanced, and it is believed to have diversified its nuclear fuel beyond its dwindling stock of plutonium by enriching uranium.
联合国于2006年对朝鲜首度核试验发起的制裁漏洞重重。自此，朝鲜的核弹及弹道导弹项目不断发展。外界认为，朝鲜除了储存钚，浓缩铀外还有多种核燃料。Though China has backed the past three sets of sanctions, bilateral trade between the two countries has soared. America sent the current draft after three weeks of talks involving China, and some American experts still think China would only enforce it half-heartedly. John Delury of Yonsei University in Seoul is particularly sceptical about hopes that the Chinese will intercept any cash crossing the North Korean border. “Whatever way the language of the sanctions is tweaked, it’s an implementation issue, and China’s not going to turn up the heat that much.”
尽管中国对先前的三套制裁均表示了支持，但两国的贸易仍飞升。为期三周的会谈后，美国发出了这项包括中国的现行草案。但仍有一些专家认为中国对决议半推半就。韩国延世大学的John Delury尤其持怀疑态度，他希望中国能终止朝鲜边境的现金运输行为。“无论制裁中的语言如何强硬，这种就是个行动力的问题。中国绝不会挑起这么大的矛盾。”On March 7th the South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong daily, quoted a senior Chinese diplomat as contradicting reports that a tentative deal had been struck between America and China. Some Chinese analysts, however, say they expect strong enforcement. Jin Canrong of Renmin University said North Korea’s “recent misbehaviour” had strengthened the voices of those in China wanting the government to take a tougher line against its unruly nuclear-armed ally.
3月7日，一份香港日报《南华早报》就中美两国达成暂时性协议的争议报道引用了中国高层外交官的话。一些中方分析师认为，中方的执行力较强。人民大学的金灿荣认为，朝鲜的“近期不当行为”引发了国内对政府就不当的核武器措施采取更强硬措施的强烈呼声。Sometimes, after North Korea and its foes have ramped up the rhetoric, comes a thaw in tensions. But not always. In 2010 the North carried out two deadly attacks against South Korean targets. With the young Mr Kim flexing his muscles in Pyongyang and a new South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, in Seoul, the risks of miscalculation are heightened.
有时，朝鲜和其敌对国家进行言语冲突后就进入紧张状态。但也有例外。2010年，朝鲜对韩国目标物进行两次致命攻击。金正恩在平壤显示了其实力，韩国的新任总统朴槿惠随即在首尔上任，可能升级对危机错误的估计。
