欧洲必须认真对待民粹主义威胁

In Europe it is hard to find two more solid democracies and flourishing economies than Sweden and Germany. Yet the strong performances of radical right protest parties in elections on Sunday show that even these models of prosperity and efficient government are infected with a virus that spreads over the entire continent.

在欧洲，很难找到两个比瑞典和德国民主更稳固、经济更繁荣的国家了。不过，极右翼抗议党派(protest parties)在上周日选举中的强劲表现证明，就连这些繁荣兴旺、政府高效的典范国家，也被一种横扫整个欧洲的病毒感染了。

Neither the Sweden Democrats, with 12.9 per cent of the vote in national legislative elections, nor Alternative for Germany (AfD), with 12.2 per cent and 10.6 per cent respectively in elections to the state parliaments of Brandenburg and Thuringia, came anywhere near outright victory. But their share of the vote shot up, demonstrating that few, if any, mainstream European conservative parties can assume themselves to be immune to the threat from unconventional movements on their right flank.

无论是在全国立法机构选举中获得12%选票的瑞典民主党(Sweden Democrats)，还是在勃兰登堡州(Brandenburg)和图林根州(Thuringia)议会选举中得票率分别为12.2%和10.6%的德国新选项党(AfD)，都谈不上是大获全胜。但它们得票率的大幅上升证明，很少有（假如真有的话）哪个欧洲主流保守党派能够想当然地认为，自己可免受比自己更右翼的非常规运动的威胁。

Less than two weeks ago, an opinion poll suggested that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, would win the second round of the country’s 2017 presidential election against François Hollande. In Britain, the United Kingdom independence party, which, like the National Front topped the national polls in May’s European Parliament elections, is set to defeat the ruling Tories next month in a by-election in Clacton, southeast England.

不到两周前，一项民调结果显示，法国国民阵线(National Front)主席马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)在2017年的法国总统选举中对阵弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)时，将在第二轮投票中胜出。在英国，英国独立党(UKIP)像法国国民阵线一样，在今年5月于本国举行的欧洲议会(European Parliament)选举中得票率名列第一。在下月于英格兰东南部的克拉克顿(Clacton)举行的补缺选举中，英国独立党有望击败执政的英国保守党(Tories)。

From France and the Netherlands to Austria and Greece, the radical right is an established phenomenon. Even though it has never held power in an EU country, it is remoulding political landscapes. A minority government beckons in Stockholm because the 49 seats won by the Sweden Democrats have denied an absolute majority to the victorious parties of the left.

从法国、荷兰到奥地利、希腊，极右翼势力的崛起已是既成事实。尽管这股势力从未在某个欧盟(EU)国家掌权，但它正在重塑欧洲的政治格局。斯德哥尔摩很可能会出现一个少数派政府，原因是瑞典民主党赢得了49个席位，导致在选举中获胜的左翼政党无法形成绝对多数。

AfD’s success – it now holds seats in three of Germany’s 16 state assemblies as well as the European Parliament – is one factor behind the electoral collapse of the liberal Free Democrats. For most of the Federal Republic’s history between 1949 and 2013, the FDP was the nation’s third party, an essential element of coalition governments and the pro-business voice in German politics. Now it has no seats in the Bundestag, the lower house. The latest miserable results in regional elections have removed it from the upper house where the states are represented.

如今，德国新选项党在该国16个州议会中的3个拥有席位，在欧洲议会也拥有席位。该党的成功，是导致自由派的德国自民党(FDP)在选举中溃败的因素之一。在德意志联邦共和国1949年至2013年历史的大部分时间里，德国自民党都是第三大党，是联合政府不可或缺的组成部分，在政界属于亲商派。如今，该党在德国议会下院——德国联邦议院(Bundestag)——中已没有席位。由于最近在地方选举中遭遇惨败，该党在代表各州的议会上院中也被扫地出门。

AfD attracts disaffected voters from all parties. It is no longer a single-issue movement, mixing its original hostility to the euro and German-guaranteed financial bailouts with support for small businesses and improved education.

德国新选项党从各个党派那里把心怀不满的选民吸引过来。该党不再是一个聚焦于单一问题的运动，而是一面继续反对欧元和德国担保下的金融纾困，一面支持小企业和改善教育。

Rightwing populism displays different characteristics from country to country, possessing a nastier far-right streak in Greece and Hungary than in Germany and the UK. One crucial element in the rise of AfD, the National Front and Ukip is the decision of their leaders to steer clear of explicit racism, let alone uniformed violence. Instead they aim to build respectability by concentrating on law and order, immigration, the overburdened welfare state and perceived threats to national identity.

右翼民粹主义在不同国家展现出不同特征：与德国和英国的情况相比，希腊和匈牙利右翼民粹主义带有更令人反感的极右色彩。德国新选项党、法国国民阵线和英国独立党崛起的背后有一项关键因素：他们的领导人决定不诉诸露骨的种族主义，更别说身着制服实施暴力行为了。相反，他们关注法律与秩序、移民、负担过重的福利国家以及人们眼中国家认同受到的威胁，打算以此赢得尊重。

In contrast to Ukip and AfD, however, the origins of the Sweden Democrats lie in fringe rightwing extremism rather than traditional conservatism. They exploit popular misgivings about high immigration levels and the alleged failure of multiculturalism in a country that has long served as a haven for refugees from Iran to the former Yugoslavia.

但与英国独立党和德国新选项党形成反差的是，瑞典民主党起源于边缘的右翼极端主义，而不是传统的保守主义。他们利用了民众对移民大量流入的担忧、以及某些人口中多元文化主义在瑞典的失败——长期以来，瑞典一直是从伊朗到前南斯拉夫等各国难民的避难所。

Like AfD, the Sweden Democrats revel in the fact that political and cultural elites treat them like polecats. They calculate that this contempt bestows on them an outsider status that helps their cause in an era of widespread disillusion with establishment parties.

像德国新选项党一样，瑞典民主党陶醉于一个事实：政治与文化精英像对待臭鼬一样对待他们。他们认为，这种蔑视赋予了他们一种局外人的身份，在当权党派普遍令人失望的时代，这种身份有利于他们事业的发展。

Across Europe the question is not if the radical right will come to power like Mussolini in 1922 or Hitler in 1933, but the extent to which its xenophobic populism will influence mainstream parties. At the moment the radical right is blowing its trumpet hard. But the walls of European democracy, like Jericho, are still standing.

欧洲各国面临的问题，不在于极右翼势力是否会像1922年的墨索里尼(Mussolini)和1933年的希特勒(Hitler)那样上台执政，而在于排外的民粹主义会对主流政党产生多大影响。目前，极右翼正在卖力地自吹自擂。但欧洲民主的城墙就像杰里科(Jericho)一样，仍然屹立如初。