不应轻视民粹主义
Populism and power can make for uncomfortable bedfellows. Shouting from the sidelines, the likes of Donald Trump offer simple solutions to intractable challenges. The problems start when they actually win. The US president is running out of excuses. So are some of his soulmates across the Atlantic: Britain may be heading towards Brexit, but taking back control is proving a much tougher proposition.
It is premature to read the rites over the electoral insurgency of the past few years. Far-right parties are winning significant vote shares across Europe. The Islamophobic Alternative for Germany now has seats in the Bundestag. The ugly xenophobia of Austria’s Freedom party has found a place in government.
要为过去几年的“选民造反”读悼词，还为时过早。极右翼党派在欧洲各国赢得可观选票。患有伊斯兰恐惧症的德国新选择党(AfD)目前在联邦议院(Bundestag)拥有席位。奥地利自由党(Freedom party)丑陋的仇外势力在政府中占有一席之地。That said, many expected 2017 to be the year when the populists swept away all before them. In the event, they were mostly held at the gates. The nativist Geert Wilders failed in the Netherlands and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen was soundly beaten by the centrist Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential poll. When the glass is half-full, it is worth saying so.
话说回来，许多人曾经预计2017年将成为民粹主义者横扫一切的一年。结果，他们基本上被挡在在大门口。本土主义者海尔特?维尔德斯(Geert Wilders)在荷兰落败，国民阵线(National Front)的马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)在法国总统选举中惨败给中间派埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)。玻璃杯半满是值得一提的。
Mr Trump’s great frustration is rooted in his failure to understand how to be president. He is stranded in office but not in power. The wall along the Mexican border has yet to be started, Barack Obama’s affordable care act is in place, and US troops are still in Afghanistan. The 35 per cent tax cut he promised for his middle-class supporters is set instead to be handed over to big corporations and the rich.
特朗普的巨大受挫感源于他不懂如何当总统。他坐进了椭圆形办公室，但并未真正主政。墨西哥边界的隔离墙尚未启动，巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)的《平价医疗法》(Affordable Care Act)仍是法律，美军仍在阿富汗。他对中产阶级支持者承诺减税35%，结果却让大公司和富人受益。The list goes on. The supposedly obsolete Nato has been given a reprieve, China has avoided being branded a currency manipulator and the White House has dropped plans for a blanket immigration ban on Muslims. Instead of a promised grand bargain with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Washington is consumed by investigations into the Trump campaign’s Moscow connections.
这份清单很长。曾被称为过时的北约(NATO)已获得“缓刑”，中国已避免被贴上汇率操纵国的标签，白宫放弃了全面禁止穆斯林移民的计划。特朗普政府没有像承诺的那样跟俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)达成“大交易”，华盛顿的很大一部分精力集中于针对特朗普竞选阵营的通俄案调查。By pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, retreating from the Paris climate change agreement and questioning longstanding commitments to allies, Mr Trump has diminished US influence around the world — hard to square with making America great again. In short, the snake oil he sold on the campaign trail has turned out to be, well, snake oil. It cannot be a coincidence that the president’s approval rating at this stage of his term is the lowest on record.
撤出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)、退出巴黎气候变化协议，以及质疑美国对盟友的长期承诺意味着，特朗普削弱了美国在世界各地的影响力——这个现实与“让美国再度伟大”的口号很难协调。简言之，他在竞选过程中的胡扯已被证明真的是胡扯。绝非巧合的是，他在总统任期的这个阶段支持率跌至史上最低水平。
